Pharoah Tough, But Mubtaahij Capable of Kentucky Derby Upset

United Arab Emirates Derby winner Mubtaahij exercises on the main track at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase
With the winners of all seven major prep races entering the starting gate for the 2015 running of the Grade 1, $2-million Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, it is hard to believe that two of the group most likely will be considered more probable than the rest by the wagering public. Those two, American Pharoah and Dortmund, both are trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert.
Baffert is no stranger to winning the run for the roses, having accomplished the feat three times previously. Dortmund is undefeated in six career races, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, while American Pharoah has won four races in a row, including a dominant eight-length triumph in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Grade 1 Louisiana Derby winner International Star is on a three-race winning streak, while Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem has won both of his 2015 starts. Another unbeaten colt, Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Materiality, attempts to be the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without starting at least once as a 2-year-old. Grade 1 Twinspires.com Wood Memorial Stakes winner Frosted is another potential star in the making. Rounding out the seven prep race winners is the Irish-bred Mubtaahij, winner of the Group 2 United Arab Emirates Derby by an impressive eight-length margin.
Main contenders:
Mubtaahij would be riding a five-race winning streak coming into the Derby if not for a head defeat in the United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas in February. Two races later, Mubtaahij turned the tables on the horse that beat him that day, Maftool, when exploding to an eight-length win in the UAE Derby on March 28. The surface Mubtaahij ran on in Dubai is traditional dirt, just like the surface at Churchill Downs, and so there is no question in my mind as to whether he can handle the track. Questions as to whether Mubtaahij can handle the long trip to the U.S. have been answered as he’s been acclimating just fine since arriving in the United States. His world-class trainer Mike de Kock has saddled stakes winners across the globe, so he knows just what to do in order to get his charge to run his best race. In the UAE Derby, Mubtaahij raced off the pace then moved powerfully to the lead when asked by jockey Christophe Soumillon, who rode the colt for the first time that day and will ride him in the Kentucky Derby. That kind of push-button acceleration is what wins the Derby, making the big move on the turn and entering the stretch then leaving the rest with a lot of work cut out for them in the last eighth of a mile. In top form and having shown the ability of a top 3-year-old to date, Mubtaahij looks very capable of posting the upset over many top contenders in this year's Derby.
2015 UAE DERBY

If American Pharoah had any knocks coming into the Arkansas Derby, they were regarding his ability to rate off the pace and pass horses with authority. In three starts prior to the Arkansas Derby, American Pharoah had pretty much led from start to finish, but in that prep race three weeks ago he proved he could relax and wait. When asked to run by jockey Victor Espinoza, American Pharoah moved brilliantly from one length behind to five in front, reminding me of the same kind of acceleration shown by last year's Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome (also with Espinoza aboard). After missing last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a foot issue and taking nearly six months off, American Pharoah might still having improving to do in his third start of the year in the Derby. Having earned a very consistent quartet of Equibase Speed Figures (105, 107, 108 and 107) in his last four races, American Pharoah is the kind of equine athlete that would be no surprise dominating the Derby.
2015 ARKANSAS DERBY

Far Right is my Commanding Curve for 2015. For those that recall last year’s ramblings on the Derby, I felt strongly that he be included on any exacta, trifecta or superfecta tickets played and those that heeded the advice were profoundly rewarded. Far Right is the same kind of horse, very likely to run his best race of the year in the Derby for one specific reason - Ron Moquett publicly stated following victory in the Southwest Stakes that his charge was going to skip the Rebel and run in the Arkansas Derby to be fresh for the Kentucky Derby. This was evident when in the Arkansas Derby jockey Mike Smith had Far Right last of eight, 13 lengths off the leader in the early stages. Probably expecting American Pharoah to dominate, it appears the plan was to angle Far Right out as the field approached the stretch, put him in the middle of the track and let him pass all the rest as the eventual winner drew off. The plan was perfectly executed by Smith, reminding me of the same tactic used last fall by Kent Desormeaux aboard Texas Red in the FrontRunner Stakes before he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Now, Far Right enters the Derby on a pattern for big improvement beyond the previous career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure earned winning the Southwest Stakes. Whether that’s enough to beat American Pharoah or Mubtaahij, or some of the other top contenders, I don’t know, but I do know I’ll be backing Far Right strongly to be in the top four in any exotic wagers I make at the very least.
Carpe Diem is on the right kind of pattern of improving speed figures I like seeing coming into the Derby, having earned a 96 figure in his last race as a 2-year-old when second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, then improving to a 105 figure when winning the Tampa Bay Derby and finally a 110 figure when victorious in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Like American Pharoah, Carpe Diem is making his third start of the year in the Derby. Carpe Diem also showed a decent turn of foot in his last two races, not exactly the same as California Chrome or Orb in their final preps for the Derby but with good acceleration when asked just the same. Considering Carpe Diem stretched out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles and ran faster, the extra eighth of a mile in the Derby, the one that separates the contenders from the pretenders, might not be an issue. He is another with a shot for all the marbles.
2015 BLUE GRASS STAKES

International Star has done nothing wrong this year, winning all three prep races in Louisiana, including the Louisiana Derby. Having improved from a 99 speed figure to 103 then 104 in his most recent race, International Star isn’t the flashy type like American Pharoah but more like a horse going about his work like a professional. In both the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star Stakes before that, jockey Miguel Mena was able to angle International Star to the rail for his rally, but in a 20-horse Derby field that could be more problematic. Just the same, considering the public will be gravitating to much bigger names, International Star could go to post at double-digit odds in the Derby, and we would be remiss to discount his chances.
Frosted has had his ups and downs, winning once and finishing second three times as a 2-year-old then regressing off a runner-up effort in the Holy Bull Stakes in his 3-year-old debut to be fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. A breathing issue was rectified after that, and Frosted returned to top form, tying a previous career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure when winning the Wood Memorial Stakes. What impressed me about his Wood Memorial win was that Frosted accelerated with just a flick of the reins, no whip needed, going by the leader in midstretch to win by two lengths with gas left in the tank. Joel Rosario was aboard for the first time in the Wood Memorial and retains the mount for the Derby. If Frosted is capable of running that well with little encouragement then when really called upon for his best in the Derby, it is possible we might see something special. Therefore, he rounds out my group of six main contenders to win Kentucky Derby 141.
2015 WOOD MEMORIAL STAKES

For those wondering why Dortmund and Materiality are not among the top group, Dortmund has dominated short fields in California and his last three speed figures have regressed, 114 to 111 to 108 in the Santa Anita Derby, a pattern that suggests he may have peaked already at a time when I am looking for a horse to run his best race of the year in the Derby. In addition, Dortmund has shown only an “early” running style this year, and there are too many horses with the same style for my taste as it asks him to change his style for the race, or forcibly changing his style when three or four other horses duel for the lead, doesn’t give me confidence. As for Materiality (115 figure in the Florida Derby), it’s not the fact that no horse that did not start as a 2-year-old has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882, it’s the fact he’s only run three times and hasn’t faced anywhere near the quality he will face in the Derby. Additionally, he’s never been worse than second in the early stages of a race.  He, too, will need to adapt to something new in terms of position or get caught up in a fast pace and tire.
The rest of the field (with their best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Bolo (108), Danzig Moon (105), El Kabeir (105), Firing Line (106), Frammento (99), Itsaknockout (97), Keen Ice (98), Ocho Ocho Ocho (105), Mr. Z (105), Stanford (103), Tale of Verve (81), Tencendur (99), Upstart (113) and War Story (105).
My Selections:
Mubtaahij
American Pharoah
Far Right
Carpe Diem
International Star
Frosted
You can get Ellis Starr’s full-card, detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day, Saturday, May 2, at Equibase.com.
$2-million Kentucky DerbySaturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Elvis Trujillo

Jim Cassidy

DP Racing

50-1

2

Carpe Diem

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable

8-1

3

Materiality

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Alto Racing

12-1

4

Tencendur

Manny Franco 

George Weaver

Phillip S. Birsh

30-1

5

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

30-1

6

Mubtaahij

Christophe Soumillon

Mike de Kock

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum

20-1

7

El Kabeir

Calvin Borel

John Terranova

Zayat Stables

30-1

8

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

3-1

9

Bolo

Rafael Bejarano

Carla Gaines

Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack

30-1

10

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

Arnold Zetcher

12-1

11

Stanford

Florent Geroux

Todd Pletcher

Stonestreet Stables, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith

30-1

12

International Star

Miguel Mena

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

20-1

13

Itsaknockout

Luis Saez

Todd Pletcher

Starlight Racing

30-1

14

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

50-1

15

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

15-1

16

War Story

Joe Talamo

Tom Amoss

Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn

50-1

17

Mr. Z

Ramon Vazquez

D. Wayne Lukas

Zayat Stables

50-1

18

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

5-2

19

Upstart

Jose Ortiz

Rick Violette

Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm

15-1

20

Far Right

Mike Smith

Ron Moquett

Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum

30-1

(AE)21

Frammento

Corey Nakatani

Nick Zito

Mossarosa

 

(AE) 22

Tale of Verve

Brian Hernandez

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke