Bram’s Derby Take: Size and ‘Money’ Matters

Dortmund (inside) battled back to defeat Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Feb. 7 at Santa Anita Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
What if horse racing decided to make a historic rule change allowing any horse of any age to race in the Kentucky Derby? California Chrome would be welcomed back should he qualify in the preps leading up. Zenyatta could have given it a go against the boys as a 4-year-old. Cigar gets a second chance at becoming an immortal. I know it’s not going to happen but just stay with me for a minute, I’m getting to a point.
Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Manny Pacquaio are finally going to fight each other that night. It’s a bout that should have happened at a bare minimum of five years ago. That doesn’t change its relevance (mainly because boxing lacks any depth of stardom), but it does provide a massive asterisk. The truth is, we’ll never know who the best pound-for-pound fighter of this generation is because neither is in his prime. Floyd figures to hang ’em up sooner rather then later, knowing there is no other draw like Pacquaio for him moving forward. And Pacquaio is far from the dominant fighter he once was. This is his last pure cash grab. You don’t need to read between the lines to know I’m leaning toward Floyd winning, and I think he’s actually going to knock Manny out. The point is, if boxing had rules in place regarding who fights whom when, we would never have had to wait for this fight to happen. This should be the night where the trilogy ends, not the result of an inexplicable wait.
Because horse racing won’t let American Pharoah duck Dortmund for five years, on this massive day for sports it’s advantage the Derby. Horse Racing > Boxing because the result is happening when it should.
On a side note, I cannot wait to see how everyone’s Derby outfit holds up as the night shifts to Mayweather-Pacquaio pre-parties. If you are like me, you are going to have to power through until the bell rings because a wardrobe change would turn into a busted night. No naps allowed.
As for the Derby field, here’s another advantage that Churchill Downs offers the viewer that the MGM does not.. There is no certainty that Dortmund or American Pharaoh win. Pick the right one and you can bet the house on Floyd!
1. Ocho Ocho Ocho — He will probably finish Ocho Ocho Ocho. … So he was awesome in the fall and based on those runs, 50-1 seems like the value play of a lifetime. But then the calendar changed and he was awful. Now that said, the Blue Grass Stakes was a bounce back to form, but folding in the stretch means you can forget a magical ride in the Derby. Couple that with who knows where he ends up after the break and I don’t see it.
2. Carpe Diem — I’m sure Todd Pletcher is furious, because any other year and he knows he might have the favorite here. His speed figures have gotten better with each of his five races, so if his best is yet to come maybe Pletcher and his trusty jock Johnny V pull this off. But I don’t love any horse on the way inside, so like Ocho, it will largely depend where he is. Good start, and he probably makes it interesting. Bad start, and he probably still makes it interesting but not as interesting.
GOOD START IS KEY FOR CARPE DIEM

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
3. Materiality — We don’t know how good he is. Johnny V had to make a choice here having won all three of the races this horse has run and clearly Pletcher and company think Carpe Diem has a more realistic chance. So, I’m going to take that as a clue that betting him puts me on the wrong side. He’s also clearly going to be up front. Maybe this is Pletcher’s rabbit to try to burn out Dortmund and American Pharoah to allow his other pony to seize the day.
4. Tencendur — I was in a gas station this morning when a man I’ve never seen, while demanding that the cashier hold back two of tomorrow’s Daily Racing Forms for him, was loudly touting how much he was going to bet on Tencendur. These type of odd occurrences make me wonder if the overlords are trying to tell me something. And then I realize I’m not delusional, and the horse soothsayer is probably not hanging out at a Mobil at 9:30 a.m. on a Thursday. I’m out.
5. Danzig Moon — Got second at the Blue Grass, passing the tired Ocho Ocho Ocho. So he’s a got a stretch run in him, but he never threatened to win that race and considering Carpe Diem is clearly not as strong as the top two contenders, I’m putting two and two together that I should probably look somewhere else.
6. Mubtaahij — And here is the entry I know nothing about, other then he’s won a ton of money mainly in Dubai. Have any of these imports even factored in the stretch in previous years? Convincing myself that because others haven’t done it means this one can’t is stupid logic — even stupider then believing in the words of a man who is filling up his tank with the medium-grade gasoline (true story - I’d actually never seen anyone use the middle pump before), but I’m left here having to make a gut call. The 20-1 number says the oddsmakers see a little life here, so I’m putting him in my exotics.
UAE DERBY WINNER MUBTAAHIJ

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
7. El Kabeir — So Calvin Borel rides him once at the highest odds he’s been in any race before or since. He does it on this track and wins going wire to wire. 30-1, huh. This is certainly not a wire-to-wire winner, and that isn’t Borel’s way regardless. So here’s a great Triple Crown jockey on a horse he’s gotten something out of before. I’m not a lunatic. I’m not calling this as an all-time upset special, but my skin is tingly. He’s definitely in the exotics.
8. Dortmund — I’m told he looks like the Shaq of horses. This will very likely be the first time in his racing career that he won’t go off as the favorite. Or, maybe he will when everyone sees how enormous he is. Does size matter? Yes. Yes, it does. Is he the winner? Let’s give a little more thought to that first.
9. Bolo — I don’t think the jock change from Mike Smith to Rafael Bejarano makes a difference at all. This was a turf horse. He’s been OK on the main track. He’s just not good enough. He’s right in the middle. I’ll pick him to finish 10th. If I get that right, you owe me $10.
10. Firing Line — Maybe the most intriguing horse in the field because he’s 12-1, yet he flashes American Pharaoh like split times. Now, if I am going to lean toward him, Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens has to promise me he won’t try to dictate the pace. That would destroy his chances. But if he’s willing to play a little cat and mouse with the big boys, I think he might just pull this off. He’s lost twice to Dortmund, both times by a head. What if he gets the better trip?
FIRING LINE HAS HALL OF AN ADVANTAGE

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
11. Stanford — He likes to get out front. And in his last two races, he was caught in the stretch. He is coming off his best race, a near miss at the Louisiana Derby, but we’re not in Louisiana anymore. I think not.
12. International Star — Who owns this horse, the Kardashians? Who names a horse that? I mean, how can he possibly live up to it? Too bad this race isn’t at the Fair Grounds, because considering his last three races there, he probably would become an international star. I’m going with he’s not quite ready for prime time here, although I am open-minded to him stealing a spot on the board.
13. Itsaknockout — This would be a fitting winner considering the fight later that night. But the speed figures say he has no business being here. He lost the Florida Derby by 21 lengths. What’s he going to lose this one by, 60?
14. Keen Ice — Rarely is competing for the win in previous stakes races. He’s one of those “why is he here?” entries. No thanks.
15. Frosted — The pace probably beats him. Probably. He was one of those just-on-the-outside-looking-in contenders before the Wood Memorial Stakes. Sure did pick a good time to post the best race of his career. The times in the Wood are nothing to be impressed by, so I’m expecting it’s back to what he was accustomed to. If he finishes in the top seven, it’s a moral victory.
16. War Story — We all got ’em. His is not all that interesting. He’s lost to International Star three times and International Star is 20-1 on the morning line. Considering I’m not really considering International Star, I’m inclined to assume I’ll be telling a different war story on Sunday.
17. Mr. Z — It’s like he ran in every possible stakes race available and won none of them. He’s like a good sparring partner to get schooled by the prize fighters. He does like to start fast, so maybe that helps Pharoah gets where he needs to be early. But he is not factoring in the final stretch.
18. American Pharoah — The only thing I don’t like is the starting post position. He’s got that Cali Chrome feel though, utter rocket fuel. He doesn’t just win, he blows horses away.
HOW WILL PHAROAH RESPOND TO A CHALLENGE?

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
19. Upstart — He’s typically right off the pace, but probably won’t be there unless he and Pharaoh decide to simultaneously hit the gas at the start. It’s really a shame that he is starting from post position 19 because he feels like a real contender. That said, the times in the races he’s won are not exactly earth shattering, and he’s in a shark tank here. I’m summon my inner Mark Cuban and just say: For that reason I’m out.
20. Far Right — He’s too far out to the right. The good news is he’d prefer to be off the pace early, which certainly he will be. He was second best to American Pharoah in Arkansas, but that clearly doesn’t really tell the story. It wasn’t a close second. Let’s say he isn’t too far behind the pack and gets a decent trip, maybe he’s a factor late. I hate maybes.
I’m not going to bother with the alternate entries, Frammento or Tale of Verve. Not interested, even if they end up running.
OK, so here we go … if I had to pick the most impressive thing I’ve seen from any of the contenders, it’s the Feb. 7 race at Santa Anita between Dortmund and Firing Line. Dortmund lost the lead in the stretch, fell behind by an entire length and recovered to beat Firing Line by a head at the wire in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. That plainly does not happen often. So this horse is beyond game. American Pharoah has rarely been challenged, so I’m not sure how he will react if someone is actually sitting next to him with the finish line approaching. So, I’m going Dortmund. In the end, size matters.
The Fully Milty: Trifecta Box: #2 (Carpe Diem), #6 (Mubtaahij), #7 (El Kabeir), 8# (Dortmund), #10 (Firing Line), #18 (American Pharaoh) #19 (Upstart)
And I’ll take my winnings and double down on Floyd.
$2-million Kentucky DerbySaturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET

No.

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Odds

1

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Elvis Trujillo

Jim Cassidy

DP Racing

24-1

2

Carpe Diem

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable

7-1

3

Materiality

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Alto Racing

14-1

4

Tencendur

Manny Franco 

George Weaver

Phillip S. Birsh

56-1

5

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

20-1

6

Mubtaahij

Christophe Soumillon

Mike de Kock

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum

12-1

7

El Kabeir

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

N/A

8

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

4-1

9

Bolo

Rafael Bejarano

Carla Gaines

Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack

33-1

10

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

Arnold Zetcher

8-1

11

Stanford

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

N/A

12

International Star

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

SCRATCHED

N/A

13

Itsaknockout

Luis Saez

Todd Pletcher

Starlight Racing

29-1

14

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

37-1

15

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing

9-1

16

War Story

Joe Talamo

Tom Amoss

Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn

41-1

17

Mr. Z

Ramon Vazquez

D. Wayne Lukas

Zayat Stables

30-1

18

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

3-1

19

Upstart

Jose Ortiz

Rick Violette

Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm

21-1

20

Far Right

Mike Smith

Ron Moquett

Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum

37-1

21

Frammento

Corey Nakatani

Nick Zito

Mossarosa

94-1