TeamABR Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections
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American Pharoah, above training at Churchill Downs, is the morning-line favorite for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, but how did the TeamABR handicappers view his chances? Don't miss the ambassadors' analysis and strategy. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 2015 Kentucky Derby drew a full field of 20, including Bob Baffert's powerful 1-2 combo of Arkansas Derby winner American Pharoah and undefeated Santa Anita Derby victor Dortmund. The 1 1/4-mile run for the roses on Saturday at Churchill Downs drew what is widely considered one of the deepest and most talented fields in years for the first jewel of the Triple Crown.
The Kentucky Derby presents a challenging exercise to handicappers but also arguably the best betting race of the year. The America’s Best Racing brand ambassadors have been providing race selections and betting analysis throughout the spring, so we’ve compiled all of the ambassadors’ selections for the Derby plus some additional strategy.
Good luck!
Ciara Austin
1st – #10 Firing Line: I think that Firing Line has had quite the steady career, and has been preparing well for the Kentucky Derby. His last win in March in the Sunland Derby showed a lot of promise, and I like his odds for a nice payout.
2nd – #6 Mubtaahij: I would keep an eye out for this horse. Leaving from post-position six, he’s got speed and this could potentially provide another great finish like he did in the United Arab Emirates Derby.
3rd – #8 Dortmund: His career record speaks for itself. Undefeated in six starts, he continues to improve with each race and is a true contender. Just imagine that huge colt in the winner’s circle!
Betting Strategy
$6 Win/Place/Show: #6 Mubtaahij ($18)
$5 exacta: 18 with 6,8,10 ($15)
$5 trifecta - 18,8 with 10,6, with 10,8 ($20)
2015 Sunland Derby
Jose Contreras
1st – #18 American Pharoah: He seems to be on another level and looks like he will be able to get a clear trip from his outside post. Has enough speed to stay close to the pace and has shown he can rate behind the speed.
2nd – #8 Dortmund: He’s shown tenacity and brilliance, all while improving each and every start. He owns some valuable local experience when he won by 7 3/4 lengths on this track.
3rd – #10 Firing Line: He’s fired a good effort in every start and comes into this race off a sharp win that didn’t take much effort out of him. The two times he’s faced Dortmund, he was only a head behind at the finish line.
4th – #6 Mubtaahij: He showed a terrific burst of speed in his dominating United Arab Emirates Derby win, and he looks to be getting better. It’s tough to get a clear idea of how he will perform in his first U.S. start, but he looks to have some serious talent.
Betting Strategy
Exactas:
$1 exacta: $1 exacta 18 with All ($19)
$1 exacta: $1 exacta All with 18 ($19)
Total=$38
Dan Tordjman
1st – #8 American Pharoah: Chalky, I know, but this horse looks like something special. His stride is effortless and no one has really been close to him since he lost his debut. The only knock on him is that he doesn’t have enough stamina in pedigree, but he’s by Pioneerof the Nile, who came pretty darn close to winning the Derby in 2009. I think American Pharoah wins comfortably.
2nd – #20 Far Right: It only seems logical to use the horse who most recently finished second to American Pharoah in the second spot in the Kentucky Derby, right? Well, it doesn't exactly work like that but I do think, similar to the Arkansas Derby, some of the more popular betting choices are going to burn themselves out trying to keep up with American Pharoah, which opens the door for Far Right, who I believe is the strongest closer in the field.
3rd – #8 Dortmund: There’s no way to knock this horse. He’s a perfect 6-for-6 and has all of the upside in the world. I'm just taking a small stance against him because I know that we rarely see the two best horses on paper finish first and second in the Derby. He should be able to run all day.
4th – #15 Frosted: He showed the ability to run from off the pace and kick late in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes last out. He had a procedure done before the Wood that apparently fixed a breathing issue he was having. He looked like a new horse in the Wood, and a similar effort in the Derby should result in a very high placing.
Betting Strategy
Exactas:
$1 exacta 18 with All ($19)
$1 exacta All with 18 ($19)
Total=$38
Trifectas:
$1 trifecta box 8,15,18,20 ($24)
$1 trifecta 18 with 8,15,20 with 3,5,7,10,12,15,19,20 ($21)
Total=$45
2015 Arkansas Derby
Mike Johnson
1st – #18 American Pharoah: Tough to knock anything about this horse. Impeccable preps and a prime post position. Should be all systems go on Saturday.
2nd – #2 Carpe Diem: He had a strong prep season, where he displayed the versatility that’s necessary to navigate the cavalry charge that is the Kentucky Derby.
3rd – #6 Mubtaahij: Big buzz horse. His major knocks – new surroundings, foreign trainer, etc. – are well documented, but his performance in the United Arab Emirates Derby showed sparks of something special.
Betting Strategy
Exactas:
$1 exacta: 18 with All ($19)
$1 exacta: All with 18 ($19)
Total=$38
$6 Win/Place/Show: #2 Carpe Diem ($18)
Vince Mathews
1st – #15 Frosted: The hype around this horse has been present for a while now, and he finally lived up to that hype with a breakthrough victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes. I like his off-the-pace running style, and the price will be right for a top-notch trainer and jockey.
2nd – #12 International Star: Nothing wrong with a horse coming into the Kentucky Derby riding a three-race winning streak, including a victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He has won some races with less-than-ideal trips in the past, and that experience should benefit him in the run for the roses.
3rd – #18 American Pharoah: Not much needs to be said here. American Pharoah is the reigning juvenile champion and a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite. You must include him on your tickets.
Betting Strategy
$2 exacta box 12,15,18 ($12)
$4 win #12 International Star ($4)
$4 win #15 Frosted ($4)
Total=$20
2015 Wood Memorial Stakes
Victoria Garofalo
1st – #18 American Pharoah: Last year’s 2-year-old champ just might be crowned king on Saturday. In perhaps the deepest, most talented field in a decade, three-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert has quietly indicated this may be his best horse ever. Two-time Derby-winning jockey Victor Espinoza is aboard, and if any horse is capable of winning by five lengths or more, this is the one!
2nd – #15 Frosted: He’s visually winning like a Derby winner. After minor throat surgery and a change in tactics that resulted in his win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes, Frosted has proven that he has the talent and connections; he looks to be in the mix at a price.
3rd – #10 Firing Line: I expect him to be a nice price on Saturday. He ran with top Derby contender Dortmund in two Kentucky Derby prep races with the outcome determined by photos. He then set a new track record for 1 1/8 miles (1:47.39) this spring in the Sunland Derby … he might be this good also.
$2-million Kentucky DerbySaturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET
No.
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Elvis Trujillo
Jim Cassidy
DP Racing
24-1
2
Carpe Diem
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable
7-1
3
Materiality
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Alto Racing
14-1
4
Tencendur
Manny Franco
George Weaver
Phillip S. Birsh
56-1
5
Danzig Moon
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John Oxley
20-1
6
Mubtaahij
Christophe Soumillon
Mike de Kock
Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
12-1
7
El Kabeir
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
8
Dortmund
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Kaleem Shah
4-1
9
Bolo
Rafael Bejarano
Carla Gaines
Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack
33-1
10
Firing Line
Gary Stevens
Simon Callaghan
Arnold Zetcher
8-1
11
Stanford
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
12
International Star
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
13
Itsaknockout
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
Starlight Racing
29-1
14
Keen Ice
Kent Desormeaux
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
37-1
15
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
9-1
16
War Story
Joe Talamo
Tom Amoss
Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn
41-1
17
Mr. Z
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
30-1
18
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
3-1
19
Upstart
Jose Ortiz
Rick Violette
Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm
21-1
20
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum
37-1
21
Frammento
Corey Nakatani
Nick Zito
Mossarosa
94-1