Inside the Trip: Kentucky Derby Prep Data Review

Mubtaahij looks to be an interesting contender in the Kentucky Derby. (Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)
Welcome to our comprehensive blog reviewing the key data accumulated by Trakus over the last few months leading up to the Kentucky Derby. In the space below, we have included videos for your own assessment to go along with data that we’ve organized in written, chart, and graphic form.
Many of the images of the Trakus T-Charts are taken from the available data you can review at your leisure. Most tracks equipped with Trakus offer the data on their website. Links are provided for each track in the text of this blog.
California-based contenders
It all starts with #8 DORTMUND. Unbeaten and almost assuredly one of the top two choices for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, he has not really had a legitimate challenge in his last two wins. Go back three starts to the Robert Lewis Stakes, and it was, seemingly, a different story.  

Did Dortmund show great resolve, a resurgence, fighting back against the speedy #10 FIRING LINE? Maybe not as much as it appeared to the eye.
As we wrote at the time, Dortmund didn’t speed up and pass Firing Line in that race, but rather, he slowed at a lesser rate. While the eye suggests Dortmund dug down and found something extra to come back and get Firing Line, the data tells a different story.

The speeds in yellow listed above are the average speeds recorded by Trakus during the entire segment within each race. These speeds are particularly interesting when comparing the two from the three-eighths to the quarter-pole. Dortmund was inside, while Firing Line was trying to maintain position, or even advance, while covering extra ground. Firing Line wasn’t running the segment from the five-sixteenths pole to the quarter pole much faster in raw times than Dortmund (a difference of 0.03 seconds), but because he was traveling wider, he was doing more work (37.7 MPH v. 37.1 MPH). Over the last three-eighths, Dortmund’s average speed decelerated by 1.8 MPH compared to Firing Line decelerating by 3.8 MPH.
In two subsequent races, Dortmund led, more or less, from start to finish, and enjoyed inside trips. Surely, those races were fast, but it is at least worth recognizing many had to endure wider trips when facing him.

But Dortmund’s past isn’t without episodes of overcoming adverse situations. It is easy to forget that Dortmund has an incredibly impressive win, where he traveled wide, over the Churchill Downs dirt. Winning by a space and covering the widest trip, that performance over the same track that hosts the prestigious Derby stands out as a shining example of his potential when not alone on the lead and saving ground.
#9 BOLO, making his second start on dirt in the Santa Anita Derby, covered all the extra ground in that race. While beaten more than six lengths, it shouldn’t go unnoticed that the son of Temple City went 65 feet farther than Dortmund, a distance approximating to more than 7 ½ lengths. The Trakus T-Chart of the Santa Anita Derby is below. You can review more such data from the Santa Anita site.

What about Mubtaahij?
The UAE-owned, South African-trained, Belgian-ridden Derby chance, #6 MUBTAAHIJ enters the Kentucky Derby with an aura of fascination. He is unlike most of the previous UAE Derby runners to go for the roses in Louisville. He had five races in just less than three months, with four wins and a narrow defeat in the lone non-victory. That loss in the UAE 2,000 Guineas, a head margin to Maftool, was the only thing keeping Mubtaahij from becoming the second winner of the UAE Triple Crown, and the first bred in the northern hemisphere to do it.
The son of Dubawi has gotten more impressive, and won in easier fashion, as the season progressed. While some UAE Derby performers land in the Kentucky Derby as an afterthought, this was anything but. Mubtaahij was a nominee at the first entry phase for the Triple Crown, and if all went well, and he earned points, the goal was always to come to Kentucky. As Steve Haskin identified in this column from early April, Mubtaahij has some remarkable foundation, being the only horse since Canonero II to have two races at distances longer than 1 1/8 miles before running in the Derby. And based on the times Trakus recorded at Meydan, his performances late in those races puts him on the level with American counterparts.
During the lead-up to the Dubai World Cup, much fuss was made of the deeper, slower, sandy surface at Meydan. What is unassailable,though, is that you simply cannot compare all the fractions, or final times, from Meydan to anywhere else impacted by the Derby trail. In the UAE, and most of the rest of the world, race timing begins when the starter pushes the button to release the horses from the gate. In North America, the timing doesn’t start until some point beyond the starting gate, typically no less than 30 feet, but in some cases up to 200 feet, or more. So let’s focus on the in-race fractions of Mubtaahij, ignoring the opening quarter which will seem more of a distraction than anything. Below are the times he recorded for his last two races, separated by three weeks, both at distances of 1,900 meters (or just shy of 1 3/16 miles).

Looking back on the UAE Derby, Mubtaahij won by eight lengths and was, basically, eased down in the late stages. You can review the data from all his races at Meydan via the Trakus T-Charts on the Dubai Racing Club website.

It’s worth noticing that Mubtaahij was faster in the final three furlongs, and basically as fast in the final furlong, of the UAE Derby as he was in his Al Bastakiya win. How it all translates with the big trip is anyone’s guess, but this Mike de Kock trainee seems a very fit, viable contender to win.
New York’s Derby preps
TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial winner #15 FROSTED emerged as the Derby frontrunner from the Aqueduct preps, having run his three best lifetime races there with two starts at Gulfstream sandwiched earlier this year.
After a head-scratching run in the Fountain of Youth, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin made some adjustments to the colt, leading to a minor throat surgery to clear his airways, sending the son of Tapit back to the site of his best performances, plus adding a new rider in Joel Rosario. The trifecta of changes worked, resulting in a career best performance, a two-length victory in a $1-million Grade 1 affair.

Frosted sat an outside trip in the Wood, tracking behind the equally wide #4 TENCENDUR. While Tencendur emerged from the far turn as the leader, Frosted overtook him and drew away. They both covered more ground than #7 EL KABEIR in third, 21 and 19 feet respectively, the equivalent of more than two lengths. Below is the Trakus T-Chart for the Wood Memorial.

Get free access to T-Charts from NYRA tracks via registration on their website NYRA.com.
El Kabeir was the victim of a tough trip in the Wood, as has been the trend with that horse at Aqueduct. He dropped back early under C.C. Lopez and attempted to close into a slow pace, leaving him with too much work to do, finishing third. He did however have what was, more or less, a closing time as fast as the winner.
While he could only muster third in the Wood, El Kabeir has proven to be a serious contender with a versatile running style that could allow him to adjust to the chaos of a 20 horse field. His victory in the Gotham Stakes back in March came in similar fashion to his run in the Wood, though that time he got the win. He had a wide trip in the Gotham, covering 19, 11, and 17 feet more than the runner-ups. That’s the equivalent of 2 ¼, 1 ¼, and two lengths.
Tencendur was also in that field, and he was the only horse to make up any substantial ground. Sitting second to last for the majority of the race, he closed to fifth late on the outside. He actually covered 34 feet more than El Kabeir, the equivalent of four lengths, to lose by 3 ¼ lengths.

One of the most impressive losing performances amongst this crop came from Frosted in the Nashua Stakes, last November, on the Cigar Mile card. On a day when the rail was generally believed to be gold, winner Leave the Light On went forward from the inside and stayed there. Frosted, however, tracked with a wide trip and just never went by, losing narrowly.

The Godolphin-owned colt covered 61 feet more than Leave the Light On, a distance equating to nearly seven lengths of added ground. As the Trakus T-Chart below shows, Frosted averaged 37.2 MPH during the Remsen compared to Leave the Light On averaging 36.8 MPH.

Note that #14 KEEN ICE, while covering one of the shortest trips in the Remsen, clearly came home quickest of all, recording a final furlong in 12.75 seconds.
Florida Prepped Contenders
While some were toughing it out in the cold of New York winter, others were soaking up the Sunshine State’s offerings. #19 UPSTART proved himself to be a worthy contender throughout the campaign, making three starts in the three graded preps at Gulfstream. On the other hand, #3 MATERIALITY burst onto the Derby scene with a controversial Florida Derby tally over Upstart, maintaining an unbeaten record. Data aside, Materiality is will have to overcome the long-standing hoodoo against those trying the Derby after never having raced as a juvenile – it hasn’t been done since Apollo in 1882.
The Florida prep season began with Upstart’s emphatic win in the Holy Bull, beating Frosted by 5 ½ lengths. Upstart tracked the lead from a three-wide position, and while well-clear at the finish, covered what was, more or less, the widest trip in the race, going 34 feet (about four lengths) farther than Frosted. Trakus T-Charts from Gulfstream can be found on their website.

Keen Ice covered another short trip, going 41 feet less than Upstart, making it two consecutive races in his portfolio where he enjoyed inside trips and was the quickest closer, running marginally faster than an eased winner over the final sixteenth. Stretched over the final furlong, though, Upstart came home fastest in 12.78 seconds with Keen Ice next fastest in 12.92 seconds.
Next in the series was the Fountain of Youth, which many described as a race contested over a tiring surface. Upstart crossed the line in front, but an objection from Luis Saez on second-placer #13 ITSAKNOCKOUT was upheld and the placings reversed. Regardless of the race’s adjudication, Upstart was wide again, covering the most ground in the field.
#21 FRAMMENTO ran the shortest trip in the Fountain of Youth but came home fastest, getting the last sixteenth in a time of 6.87 seconds, 0.57 seconds quicker than Upstart. While beaten more than four lengths, his final quarter was quickest, home in 26.58 seconds. You did not misread that – the fastest final two furlongs in the race came from the third place finisher in more than 26 ½ seconds.

Upstart’s final quarter was clocked in 27.84 while Itsaknockout was home in 28.02 seconds. See what we meant about a tiring surface that day?
Todd Pletcher got another Florida Derby win from a lightly raced prospect when Materiality, making only his third start, defeated Upstart on March 28. An impressive winner of a maiden event followed by a listed stake, he led most of the way in the Florida Derby, besting Upstart, who was a country mile ahead of third placer Ami’s Flatter.
The Tampa Bay Derby was the first of #2 CARPE DIEM’s two wins this season, rolling to an easy win over Ami’s Flatter and next-out Coolmore Lexington Stakes winner Divining Rod. Carpe Diem’s final furlong of 12.77 seconds was the only sub-13 second time in the race.

The T-Chart from the Tampa Bay Derby is below. You can view data and more from Tampa’s website. 

Kentucky Prepped Contenders
Carpe Diem still figures prominently in the discussion after his three length win in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland over #5 DANZIG MOON and #1 OCHO OCHO OCHO, 5 ½ lengths back in third.
In the T-Chart below, note that Danzig Moon ran the fastest final furlong, covered the widest trip in the Blue Grass, and averaged the same speed as winner Carpe Diem over the course of the race.

Louisiana / Arkansas Prepped Contenders
Unfortunately, Trakus is not installed at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn Park. The videos, however, don’t lie, and often tell some great stories. We highly recommend watching the three Derby preps from the Fair Grounds, all won by #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR, and all contested by #16 WAR STORY. For both, it was the tale of two races, times three. International Star, despite a pair of wide draws in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, got to the rail, saved ground, traversed narrow passages in both spots, and always managed to be in front.
For War Story, he may have saved some ground early, but was always significantly wider than International Star. Our long-time study of ground loss suggests that horses asked to run wider than others are required to go faster to maintain their position, let alone advance. War Story has had it wide throughout, while International Star has always had the cozy spots, but definitely snuck through in a few tough positions.
Watch the race below.

Likely Derby favorite #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH has been flawless in two runs in Arkansas this season, winning by a total of 14 ¼ lengths. His Rebel win came going forward, saving ground, and just not stopping. Slightly diversifying his past performances, Victor Espinoza settled off the early Arkansas Derby speed and progressed with the greatest of ease, drawing away from an overmatched group there which includes Kentucky Derby starter #20 FAR RIGHT, who came from well off the pace, and #17 MR Z. While covering some extra ground, there is little question that American Pharoah has hardly faced the bottom of his tank, but what is also true is that he has never truly been challenged, either.

In his FrontRunner win at Santa Anita in September, American Pharoah enjoyed a secure inside spot while Calculator and Texas Red faced divergent trips, either covering added ground or closing from well back. Both went on to wins in their next starts, with Texas Red landing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Surely, it franked the American Pharoah form, regardless.
KENTUCKY DERBY SYNOPSIS
American Pharoah, no matter how you look at it, will have the toughest trip of his career in the Kentucky Derby. Now, you can say that is true of almost all horses in this race, but it’s especially true for the morning line favorite, who has enjoyed some advantageous trips throughout his life. He covered extra ground in the Arkansas Derby, but likely nowhere near as much as he will encounter from a high draw.
Carpe Diem and Materiality, both of whom normally go forward, along with Ocho Ocho Ocho, are drawn in the first three stalls, and despite what trainer Jim Cassidy said about his charge, are all likely to mix it up. Firing Line provides speed from gate ten and Dortmund has done nothing but run forward in his three starts this season. Of course, the aforementioned American Pharoah and Mr Z are also expected to be in attendance to the pace mix.
Where are the best trips likely to come from? Surely, Firing Line seems in a cozy spot. Drawn in ten, he could mix the pace from the front or settle just off it, and his tactical speed should have him out of clear trouble.
This blog has always been keen to find the “reverse trip” horses, those who encountered extra ground in their recent past and could end up with better trips. Those that fit under that characterization, to us, are Tencendur, Danzig Moon, and El Kabeir. We would be inclined to think these horses have things in an ideal spot. Add to the list of “best case scenarios” based on the draw and likely race dynamics – Mubtaahij and Bolo.
One potentially significant negative “reverse trip” horse is International Star – despite wide draws in the past, Miguel Mena was able to get inside and save ground. Now, he’s still well out there, but it seems much less likely he will be able to save ground.
Horses that have been planted wide in the past, overcome it, and are saddled with that impost yet again include Frosted, War Story, Upstart, and Far Right.
Based on the data above, our prognostication of jockey styles, the likely pace and trip setups, the following seem to be the most likely prime contenders: Dortmund, Mubtaahij, American Pharoah, Frosted, El Kabeir, and Tencendur. If you are looking for longshots to toss into the exotics, again based on our analysis above, we think Tencendur, Danzig Moon, and El Kabeir really fit the bill of superfecta shake-ups.
No matter what, there is a massive need for some Derby luck to be on your side to get the job done. The smallest bump here, stumble there, run-off, or back-up can lead to a traffic jam that ruins dreams of some and punches lifetime memories for others. As always, regardless of the result, we hope all human and equine participants enjoy a safe and healthy Kentucky Derby. All the best!