Sizing Up All of the Kentucky Derby Longshots
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Far Right won the Southwest Stakes in February at Oaklawn Park and finished second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas derby. (Coady Photography)
In a Kentucky Derby that has turned out to be one of the best in recent memory in terms of quality starters, it’s natural to envision an epic finish with the three favorites – American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem – across the track, heroically battling to stick their nose in front at the finish line.
Unfortunately, the run for the roses usually does not cooperate with those who believe in predictability.
Last year, for the second time in a row, the first two horses across the finish line were the favorite followed by a longshot priced at 30-1 or more.
That result accounted for 18th time in the last 34 editions of the Kentucky Derby that a horse at 20-1 or higher finished first, second or third.
With a batting average like that, there’s definitely sufficient reason to put common sense aside for a bit, and take a look at this year’s longshots in hopes of finding a gem or two among the rubble.
A total of 13 horses were priced at 20-1 or more on the morning line for this year’s 141st edition of the run for the roses, so it’s definitely a buyer’s market. Yet, it’s probably best to be selective about the type of dark horse you want to back. With so many of the top contenders wanting to be on or near the lead, the most likely scenario for an unheralded runner to make his presence felt would involve making a late charge at the end and passing exhausted rivals.
It’s happened before – as witnessed by the last two years – and it can surely happen again.
Here’s a look at this year’s parade of longshots:
1. (Program number) Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1) – No No No. Drawing the dreaded rail was a double whammy for him. He has enough speed to avoid getting trapped behind horses, yet rushing out for the early lead does not bode well for his being around at the end of this race.
4. Tencendur (30-1) – He was a good second in the Wood Memorial Stakes and appears to be on the upswing. He likes to sit just off the pace, however, and that type of trip seems problematic against this field.
TENCENDUR
NYRA photo
5. Danzig Moon (30-1) – Was second to Carpe Diem in his last two starts, so he can’t be ignored. He improved from beaten 12 lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby to just three lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes, yet in a blockbuster field like this there’s little reason to believe he’ll continue to gain ground on Carpe Diem or anyone else for that matter.
6. Mubtaahij (20-1) – At some point, a horse from Dubai will win the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we just might have to wait until the 22nd Century for it to happen. Mubtaahij was dominant in the Middle East and should handle the distance, but he faces an outstanding field and may not be up to the challenge in water this deep.
7. El Kabeir (30-1) – There’s no doubt that El Kabeir, who along with morning-line favorite American Pharoah and Mr. Z is owned by Zayat Stables, is in shape. This will be his fifth start in 2015. His speed figures cannot match the top ones, but he’s a closer and if you get a Derby starter at 30-1 with Calvin Bo-rail on his back, it’s worth a long look. He even has a win on the track.
EL KABEIR
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
9. Bolo (30-1) – Was third to a buzzsaw named Dortmund in his last two tries and lost ground in the final furlong of both of them. That’s not the best of signs coming into a grueling 1 ¼-mile test. Gets Rafael Bejarano, his third different jockey in three races. Maybe three is the charm?
12. International Star (20-1) – The best testament to the quality of this field is that he’s 20-1. All he’s done is win all three of his 3-year-old starts, capped by the Louisiana Derby. His late-running style is perfect for this race and he seems a bargain at this price. Of course, with Ken and Sarah Ramsey as his owners, don’t be surprised if the odds drop.
INTERNATIONAL STAR
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
13. Itsaknockout (30-1) – There might be a need for smelling salts if this one wins. Was awarded the win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes by the judges, er, stewards and then lost by 21 lengths in the Florida Derby. Off that last effort, and a career slate of just four races, it’s hard to see him going 12 rounds against these brawlers.
14. Keen Ice (50-1) – He closed nicely to finish third behind International Star in the Risen Star Stakes to earn acclaim as a runner who might appreciate the Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance. Keen Ice never fired in the Louisiana Derby, yet if there’s a zany pace, he could benefit. At 50-1 it might be smart to use him lightly in the exotics.
KEEN ICE
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
16. War Story (50-1) – Was beaten by International Star in his last three races. Both of them are closers, so it’s hard to build a case for him. He’s lost ground in the final furlong of his last three races, diminishing his appeal as someone who will be flying late.
17. Mr. Z (50-1) – He’s trained by D. Wayne Lukas, so it’s no surprise this will be his 13th career start – more than anyone else in the field. He’s actually started more times than fellow Zayat Stables runner American Pharoah and Dortmund combined. He has the seasoning and has been second or third in seven graded stakes, but his running style will keep him too close to that demanding pace.
20. Far Right (30-1) – He was second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, but was eight lengths behind, explaining why that one is 5-2 and he’s 30-1. Yet, he had no shot that day as American Pharoah simply cruised to the front on the turn and never was challenged in the stretch. This time, American Pharoah will face a tougher challenge, and the extra furlong will be to Far Right’s advantage. Definitely fits the profile of a 30-1 shot who can sneak into the picture at the end.
21. Frammento (50-1) – Drew into the field on Thursday and is surely a plodding, late runner. Would have liked to seen him closer at the finish than fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, but if he can drop over at the break and save ground, perhaps he has a chance. Having two-time Derby winner Nick Zito as his trainer can’t hurt.
$2-million Kentucky DerbySaturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET
No.
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
ML Odds
1
1
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Elvis Trujillo
Jim Cassidy
DP Racing
50-1
2
2
Carpe Diem
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable
8-1
3
3
Materiality
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Alto Racing
12-1
4
4
Tencendur
Manny Franco
George Weaver
Phillip S. Birsh
30-1
5
5
Danzig Moon
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John Oxley
30-1
6
6
Mubtaahij
Christophe Soumillon
Mike de Kock
Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
20-1
7
7
El Kabeir
Calvin Borel
John Terranova
Zayat Stables
30-1
8
8
Dortmund
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Kaleem Shah
3-1
9
9
Bolo
Rafael Bejarano
Carla Gaines
Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack
30-1
10
10
Firing Line
Gary Stevens
Simon Callaghan
Arnold Zetcher
12-1
11
N/A
Stanford
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
12
11
International Star
Miguel Mena
Mike Maker
Ken and Sarah Ramsey
20-1
13
12
Itsaknockout
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
Starlight Racing
30-1
14
13
Keen Ice
Kent Desormeaux
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
50-1
15
14
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
15-1
16
15
War Story
Joe Talamo
Tom Amoss
Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn
50-1
17
16
Mr. Z
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
50-1
18
17
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
5-2
19
18
Upstart
Jose Ortiz
Rick Violette
Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm
15-1
20
19
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum
30-1
21
20
Frammento
Corey Nakatani
Nick Zito
Mossarosa
50-1
22 (AE)
21
Tale of Verve
Brian Hernandez
Dallas Stewart
Charles Fipke
50-1
AE- Denotes also-eligible entrant, meaning another entrant would need to be scratched for Tale of Verve to draw into the field.