Predicteform.com’s Upset Watch: Kentucky Derby
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Bolo exercises on the main track at Churchill Downs in preparation for Saturday's Kentucky Derby. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The $2-million Kentucky Derby is now hours - not days - away and just about everyone is looking for a longshot pick for the first jewel of the Triple Crown on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
This is one of the best fields assembled for the Kentucky Derby in recent memory, and the abundance of talent means bettors have a golden opportunity to find some value and make some money.
The Predicteform upset play for the Kentucky Derby is Santa Anita Derby third-place finisher Bolo. The only runner in the field to establish a clear foundation on turf (2-3 races with similar final figures), Bolo has made a smooth transition to running on dirt for trainer Carla Gaines.
There are those who claim he has “turf pedigree,” but his two competitive efforts against Dortmund show he is on the cusp of being able to compete with the best 3-year-olds in the country regardless of surface.
His average final figure is 75.1, which ranks fifth in the field, and Bolo is the only runner to show two positive Form Cycle Patterns back-to-back. Two races lifetime on dirt, with a 75.1/71.5 Compression (COMP) Pattern and a 73.2/73.8 New Pace Top (NPT) Pattern. Individually, these two patterns are strong indicators of progression, back-to-back like this means the horse is coming into his own. The NPT is considered the strongest indicator of progression on dirt and it is of note that he is the only runner with that indication.
Sure, he's only got two starts on dirt, which is the fewest in the field, but he has a couple fast 4f figures of 76 and 78 on turf. Also, notice he’s run in big fields, with the exception of the Santa Anita Derby. West Coast leading jockey Rafael Bejarano gets the call looking for his first in-the-money Kentucky Derby finish in what will be his 10th start.
Bolo’s positive Form Cycle Patterns, a decent post position to allow for a variety of jockey tactics and morning-line odds of 30-1 make for a very appealing longshot.
$2-million Kentucky DerbySaturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET
No.
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Elvis Trujillo
Jim Cassidy
DP Racing
24-1
2
Carpe Diem
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable
7-1
3
Materiality
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Alto Racing
14-1
4
Tencendur
Manny Franco
George Weaver
Phillip S. Birsh
56-1
5
Danzig Moon
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John Oxley
20-1
6
Mubtaahij
Christophe Soumillon
Mike de Kock
Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
12-1
7
El Kabeir
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
8
Dortmund
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Kaleem Shah
4-1
9
Bolo
Rafael Bejarano
Carla Gaines
Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack
33-1
10
Firing Line
Gary Stevens
Simon Callaghan
Arnold Zetcher
8-1
11
Stanford
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
12
International Star
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
13
Itsaknockout
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
Starlight Racing
29-1
14
Keen Ice
Kent Desormeaux
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
37-1
15
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
9-1
16
War Story
Joe Talamo
Tom Amoss
Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn
41-1
17
Mr. Z
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
30-1
18
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
3-1
19
Upstart
Jose Ortiz
Rick Violette
Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm
21-1
20
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum
37-1
21
Frammento
Corey Nakatani
Nick Zito
Mossarosa
94-1