Veteran Turf Writers Analyze the Kentucky Derby Field
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American Pharoah (above left) and Frosted (above right) both enter the Kentucky Derby off of impressive victories. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Bob Ehalt and Tom Pedulla became fast friends when they met on their first day at Fordham Preparatory School in the Bronx, N.Y., in 1971. Bob soon introduced Tom to the joys of Thoroughbred racing.
They have endured some rough moments at the track, with Tom taking exception when Bob repeatedly smacks him on the back with a program as one of their horses launches an all-out drive. Much to Tom’s chagrin and the amusement of onlookers, Bob has been known to call for security as he proceeds to cash a $27 trifecta.
They have owned a number of horses together. They are often seen carrying on at the track as if they never left their teenage years.
Here is their take on the 141st Kentucky Derby:
PEDULLA: Bob, I came to Louisville looking to go against my chalk-loving reputation and find a Derby winner other than American Pharoah. But the longer I have been here, the more I am convinced that he cannot be beaten.
Everything is in line for him to produce a “wow” performance. Bob Baffert, a three-time Derby winner and the perfect trainer for this burner, has him as sharp as can be. I was impressed that he was willing to rate off the leader in the Arkansas Derby before turning that prep into an 8-length run for fun. I think the relatively short three-week spacing to the opening leg of the Triple Crown is ideal for him.
The final piece was seeing how he would get over the Churchill Downs main track. As you helped me learn through the years, not every horse takes to what can be a funky surface. No such worries for American Pharoah.
His five-furlong drill on April 26 in :58.40, the fastest of 33 workouts at the distance, was a sight to behold. Gary Young, a private clocker and bloodstock agent, said this after every onlooker caught his breath: “I have been doing this for 35 years and this might be the best horse I’ve ever seen. He’s simply Michael Jordan, and he stays in the air like he did in his rookie year. He stays in the air longer than any horse, and you get the feeling he has not one gear left but he may have two, three or four gears.”
I don’t love post 17, but two-time Derby winner Victor Espinoza will be able to keep him out of trouble and sit off the abundant speed inside. The Jordan comparison works well here. American Pharoah is a slam dunk.
AMERICAN PHAROAH
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
EHALT: Tom, I can’t fault you for any of that. Owner Ahmed Zayat’s American Pharoah is the best horse in this crop and the key horse in this race. Yet, as much as he has enough talent to handle this field, I can’t get away from the notion that he’s one race shy of a peak effort. His two races in Arkansas – his only starts since September - were little more than lucrative workouts, and to beat such a stellar group off a limited workload, he’ll have to be Seattle Slew II. Maybe he is, but at 5-2 odds, I’m willing to bet he isn’t.
I’m also not buying that he’ll rate comfortably. Rating second off a longshot in the Arkansas Derby is nothing compared with the challenge he’ll face here with so many good horses that prefer to be on or near the lead – especially with a bull’s eye on his back.
He’s probably good enough to put away those who try to run with him, but in that final furlong that lack of a third race at three will haunt him in a finish along the lines of 2012, when Zayat’s Bodemeister seemed home free in midstretch but could not resist one last foe.
This time it will be Frosted who motors past.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin did an amazing job turning him around after that flop in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He was highly impressive in closing from sixth to win the Wood and seems poised for an even better effort Saturday. Throat surgery did wonders for Alysheba in 1987, and maybe lightning will strike again with Frosted.
As a betting man, it’s also hard to get past that he’s 15-1 and American Pharoah is 5-2. If I’m going to rip up tickets, who wants to have them covered in chalk?
FROSTED WINNING WOOD MEMORIAL
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
PEDULLA: Although I sure wish Upstart had not drawn so far outside in post 18, he is as consistent as they come. He will definitely get a piece of this. The only question is how large. He overcame a poor post position to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He opened his 3-year-old season with a convincing victory in the Holy Bull Stakes. Many thought he was unfairly disqualified and placed second behind Itsaknockout in the Fountain of Youth. Granted, he was second best to Materiality in the Florida Derby. His seasoning, however, gives him a huge advantage in this spot over Materiality, who was unraced at 2.
EHALT: As a sign of my respect for American Pharoah, he’s in my exacta box. I can see one horse getting past him, but only one.
PEDULLA: In any other year, there would be tremendous excitement about Dortmund. Unfortunately for him, he is overshadowed by his stablemate, American Pharoah. The Santa Anita Derby winner is 6-for-6 and, at 17-plus hands, he will tower over many of his opponents when they step onto the racetrack. He will tower over many of them at the end, too.
EHALT: My pick before the post-position draw was Upstart, but post 19 (now 18) changed my thinking. That’s awful post for him. Love his ability, but something always seemed to go wrong for him like a muddy track, bad post in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a disqualification when he was the best horse, a racing surface he did not relish in Florida, a fever. The poor post continues that spate of bad luck, though having him in the exactas and at 53-1 to win in the first future wager will put a smile on my face if Lady Luck finally smiles on him come the first Saturday in May.
PEDULLA: Carpe Diem, the Juvenile runner-up, has tremendous talent. He has done everything right as a 3-year-old for regular rider John Velazquez. I could make a better case for him if he had not drawn so deep inside, in post two. It will be extremely difficult to seize the day from that position.
CARPE DIEM WINING BLUE GRASS STAKES
Coady Photography
EHALT: Hmm. Favorites in three of the four spots, eh, Tom? Glad to see you’ve reverted to form after that General a Rod aberration a year ago. If American Pharoah does indeed put away rivals like stablemate Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Materiality and Firing Line, it will open the door for a late-running longshot to sneak into the picture. I can see Far Right doing just that. He had no chance to catch to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, but this time American Pharoah will be pressed much harder and the extra furlong will work to Far Right’s advantage. Post position 19 doesn’t bother me. With so much speed in front of him, he should be able to angle in and find a nice spot before the first turn. Yeah, it’s a bit of a reach, but those odds are impossible for me resist.
Some things never change, old buddy.
$2-million Kentucky DerbySaturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET
No.
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Elvis Trujillo
Jim Cassidy
DP Racing
24-1
2
Carpe Diem
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable
7-1
3
Materiality
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Alto Racing
14-1
4
Tencendur
Manny Franco
George Weaver
Phillip S. Birsh
56-1
5
Danzig Moon
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John Oxley
20-1
6
Mubtaahij
Christophe Soumillon
Mike de Kock
Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
12-1
7
El Kabeir
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
8
Dortmund
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Kaleem Shah
4-1
9
Bolo
Rafael Bejarano
Carla Gaines
Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack
33-1
10
Firing Line
Gary Stevens
Simon Callaghan
Arnold Zetcher
8-1
11
Stanford
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
12
International Star
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
13
Itsaknockout
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
Starlight Racing
29-1
14
Keen Ice
Kent Desormeaux
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
37-1
15
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
9-1
16
War Story
Joe Talamo
Tom Amoss
Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn
41-1
17
Mr. Z
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
30-1
18
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
3-1
19
Upstart
Jose Ortiz
Rick Violette
Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm
21-1
20
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum
37-1
21
Frammento
Corey Nakatani
Nick Zito
Mossarosa
94-1