'Real Deal' Cave Rock Faces Breeders' Cup Juvenile Test

The history of the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) at Keeneland is brief, to say the very least.

Nov. 4 will mark only the third time the Juvenile has been contested at the Lexington track, making it a bit premature to talk in assured tones about any trends in the race that typically decides the champion 2-year-old male.

Yet what has happened in the past at Keeneland surely frames the key matchup in this year's Juvenile as the two favorites are following the two winning paths from the past.

In 2015, Nyquist   shipped in with an undefeated record and a pair of grade 1 wins in California and won by a half-length over Swipe , who was second to Nyquist in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park, their final prep for the Juvenile.

Fast forward to Friday's Future Stars stakes and the 4-5 favorite after the Oct. 31 post position draw, Cave Rock  (post 3), has journeyed from California to Kentucky with a perfect 3-for-3 record and a pair of grade 1 wins to his credit. Adding to the déjà vu, National Treasure , who was second to Cave Rock in their last race, the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, will be among Friday's field of 2-year-olds.

When the Breeders' Cup returned to Keeneland in 2020, the winner was Essential Quality  , who prepped by winning the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland at the same 1 1/16-mile distance as the Juvenile.

In Friday's $2 million Juvenile, trying to follow in his hoofprints will be Forte , the 4-1 second choice in the wagering off wins in, yes, the Breeders' Futurity and the Hopeful Stakes (G1).

Is there a trend in the making? Time will tell.

For sure Cave Rock comes into the Juvenile as a highly deserving favorite. Owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman and trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, the son of Arrogate has been a dominant force on the West Coast, winning all three of his starts by margins of 5 1/4 lengths or more. In both the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah and an earlier score in the Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (G1), Cave Rock zipped away to the early lead and triumphed by 5 1/4 lengths each time.

"He's the real deal," Pegram said after the Oct. 8 American Pharoah. "You look at him now, he's everything a guy would want. He's won two grade 1s. We'll take it. It's been a great 10 weeks and hopefully more fun to come in the springtime. We'll find out what he's made of four weeks from now if everything is okay."

Bred by Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing out of the Bellamy Road mare Georgie's Angel, Cave Rock was bought for $550,000 from the Gainesway consignment at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Either he or SF Racing, Madaket Stables, Starlight Racing, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan's National Treasure (Quality Road  ) could give Baffert a sixth Juvenile victory, breaking his tie with D. Wayne Lukas for the most Juvenile wins.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Juvenile twice and will try to add another with Forte and Lost Ark  (Violence  ), who was a troubled sixth in the Breeders' Futurity.

Owned by Mike Repole and Vinnie Viola's St. Elias Stable, Forte had to work hard to win the Breeders' Futurity, prevailing by a neck over Loggins  after a heated duel in the final furlong of a race that mirrors the conditions of the Juvenile.

"I certainly think it doesn't hurt getting a two-turn experience and going over the same surface as they are going to run the Breeders' Cup on," Pletcher said. "It could be an advantage. Hopefully that will be in his favor because he has a super tough competitor in Cave Rock. He's been outstanding in his races."

A three-length winner of the Hopeful on a sloppy track at Saratoga Race Course, the first foal from the Blame   mare Queen Caroline bred by South Gate Farm sold for $110,000 from the Eaton Sales consignment at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Among those hoping to create a new mold of success is Rodeo Creek Racing's Blazing Sevens . 

A son of 2017 Juvenile winner Good Magic   trained by Chad Brown, he won his debut by 6 1/4 lengths over a fast track at Saratoga but then finished a distant third in the Hopeful, 12 lengths behind Forte on a sloppy surface at the Spa. 

Yet when Brown brought Blazing Sevens back in the Champagne Stakes (G1) over a sloppy surface at Aqueduct Racetrack, the 2-year-old relished Big A mud. Last early on in the field of six under jockey Flavien Prat, he took charge in the final furlong and drew away to a 3 1/4-length victory.

"The Champagne was the right one for him," Prat said. "He really ran well first time out and then (in the Hopeful) he got some kickback and didn't run as well, but when he stretched out (to a mile in the Champagne) it really suited him. You never know until they do it, but it does not feel like more distance will be a problem for him."

Bred by Tracy Farmer out of the Warrior's Reward   mare Trophy Girl, Blazing Sevens, the first grade 1 winner for John and Carla Capek's Rodeo Creek, was bought for $225,000 from the Eaton Sales consignment at The Saratoga Sale, Fasig-Tipton's New York sale of select yearlings.

Other top threats include the Iroquois Stakes (G3) winner Curly Jack  (Good Magic) and Champagne runner-up Verifying  (Justify  ).

Aside from shares of the $2 million purse, the top five finishes will receive 30-12-9-6-3 qualifying points in descending order toward a spot in next year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). Baffert's horses are ineligibe for points due to his suspension for entering and racing at Churchill Downs and CDI tracks until the middle of 2023 due to the disqualification of Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the field for the @BreedersCup Juvenile on Future Stars Friday at #Keeneland! pic.twitter.com/uAjpMVR9rD

— Keeneland Racing (@keenelandracing) October 31, 2022

Entries: FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1)

Keeneland, Friday, November 04, 2022, Race 9

• Grade I
• 1 1/16m
• Dirt
• $2,000,000
• 2 yo Colts and Geldings
• 5:00 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Hurricane J (KY)	Joseph Talamo	122	Paulo H. Lobo	30/1
2	2Congruent (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	122	Antonio Sano	30/1
3	3Cave Rock (KY)	Juan J. Hernandez	122	Bob Baffert	4/5
4	4Forte (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	122	Todd A. Pletcher	4/1
5	5Verifying (KY)	Joel Rosario	122	Brad H. Cox	10/1
6	6Blazing Sevens (KY)	Flavien Prat	122	Chad C. Brown	6/1
7	7Wound Up (KY)	Mario Gutierrez	122	Michael W. McCarthy	30/1
8	8Lost Ark (KY)	Luis Saez	122	Todd A. Pletcher	20/1
9	9Curly Jack (KY)	Edgar Morales	122	Thomas M. Amoss	20/1
10	10National Treasure (KY)	John R. Velazquez	122	Bob Baffert	8/1