A Classic Test for Flightline's Greatness

The first Breeders' Cup held at Keeneland ended with an unforgettable scene.

As dusk approached on Halloween in 2015, American Pharoah  , the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years, ran off into the sunset in majestic fashion.

Atoning for a loss in the Travers Stakes (G1), the charismatic colt affirmed his greatness in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) by beating the sport's best dirt horses by a widening 6 1/2-length margin in what would be his final start for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Ahmed Zayat.

Seven years later, the Breeders' Cup is back at Keeneland and the Nov. 5 Classic may very well be a stage for greatness.

Not for a Triple Crown champion.

Rather the $6 million test figures to be the final race for the unbeaten and unchallenged Flightline .

"He's American Pharoah as a 4-year-old," Baffert said about the son of Tapit  . "I always thought what would 'Pharoah' look like as a 4-year-old and that's Flightline. They look alike, they move alike. They just cover the ground. They do it effortlessly."

What Flightline has done in a meteoric career has been well documented. Five starts for the ownership group of Hronis Racing, breeder Summer Wind Equine, West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, and Siena Farm. Five wins. A combined winning margin of nearly 62 lengths for trainer John Sadler. A victory in the Malibu Stakes (G1) by 11 1/2 lengths last December. Then a six-length romp in the Hill 'n' Dale Metropolitan Handicap (G1) in June. After that, and most recently, on Sept. 3 he produced the effort that generated gasps of disbelief throughout the industry. Racing around two turns for the first time and traveling the same 1 1/4-mile distance as the BC Classic, he soared into racing lore by winning the TVG Pacific Classic (G1) by an astonishing 19 1/4-length margin.

"That was a performance for the ages," Sadler said.

Now on Saturday comes what is likely to be one final test to define his greatness and where he stands among the sport's most famous stars.

Yes, final. While no official statement has been issued about Flightline's future as a racehorse, there have been no indications that he will make one more appearance in a starting gate.

With a stallion deal set with Lane's End, should Flightline win the Classic, what is left for the 4-year-old to prove? Should he lose, why risk tarnishing his reputation even more? Beyond that, industry sources indicate even Lloyd's of London will not insure an active racehorse for more than $35 million. With estimates of Flightline's value as a stallion extending from $60-100 million, that's clearly an untenable long-range financial risk.

Whatever happens, the future will become crystal clear shortly after the Classic since a 2.5% share of Flightline is scheduled to be auctioned at Keeneland Nov. 7.

The likelihood of retirement means that Flightline will be remembered for decades to come based on a resume of just six races, none of them Triple Crown races, and without question what happens Saturday in the most demanding test for the 4-year-old sensation will determine whether he achieves status as one of the greatest stars ever such as Dr. Fager, Secretariat, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid. Or will a loss mar all of his fame, such as what happened to Arrogate , who in 2016-17 put together a mind-boggling stretch of four straight wins in the Travers Stakes (G1), Breeders' Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1), and the Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (G1), but lost his final three races and retired with $17.4 million in earnings but without a Horse of the Year crown.

"I love that people are talking about Flightline and where he stands among the all-time greats. It's a truly wonderful thing," said Terry Finley, president of West Point Thoroughbreds which owns 17.5% of Flightline. "But I am hoping that we will have a little more context after Saturday if he puts on another tour de force. He hasn't had to think about another horse before but he should have to think about one or two of them Saturday."

Surely, as referenced by Flightline's aforementioned stakes wins, brilliance has been the hallmark of his career.

"He's the best horse I've ever ridden. I would love to ride one better than him, but it is hard to believe that will happen," said his jockey, Flavien Prat. "I could not believe how he won the Pacific Classic."

Sadler trained 2018 Classic winner Accelerate   and numerous grade 1 winners in his career, but he, too, says he has never been associated with another horse that can compare to Flightline.

"There was a workout before he ran at Del Mar (in his second start in Sept. 2021). It was misty and nobody was there.  I watched him work and I said to myself that maybe that was the best work I've ever seen and I'm a 30-40-year guy in the business," Sadler said. "The moments I've had alone with him in the mornings have been a joy."

Peter Arden, a partner in West Point Thoroughbreds' share of Flightline, was also part of the WPT group that had a share of 2017 Kentucky Derby Presented by YUM! Brands (G1) winner Always Dreaming  . To him, there's no comparison between Flightline and the typical Run for the Roses winner.

"Everyone knows the Kentucky Derby and they are always talking about it, so when Always Dreaming won it created a lot of excitement. Yet he wasn't a tenth of the racehorse Flightline is," Arden said. "While Always Dreaming was a wonderful experience, Flightline could be a generational experience that they will be talking about for decades. To be a part of something like that puts it at a higher magnitude than the Derby."

Even competitors such as Baffert have tipped their hat in respect to Flightline.

"I was talking with (Juddmonte Farm manager) Garrett O'Rourke and I told him I was going to be bold and enter Laurel River  in the Pacific Classic. Then I watched Flightline work and said, 'Nah, I'm not that bold,'" said Baffert, who did run Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer  in the Pacific Classic and watched him finish a very distant second.

As impressive as the Malibu and Met Mile were it was indeed the Pacific Classic victory by a preposterous margin in 1:59.28 that has allowed Flightline's reputation to sprout up faster than Jack's beanstalk. The jaw-dropping victory was not just visually stunning, it generated speed figures rarely—if ever—seen in premier services such as Thoro-Graph or the Ragozin Sheets, where lower numbers are better.

On the Thoro-Graph scale, Flightline received a -8.5, a lopsided six points better than the best last-race figure of anyone else in the Classic. On Ragozin, it was a -2 and a 5.75-point edge in last-race figures.

"When you hear people talking about Secretariat or Ghostzapper  , that was a different era. Horses were trained differently. They ran a lot more often," said Gary Bagliebter, who also owns a share of Flightline through West Point. "John Sadler has been training horses for 40 years and he's never had a horse like Flightline. What scale do you use to compare him? If you put Flightline on one side, who do you put on the other?"

Depending on what happens Saturday, trying to compare Flightline with the sport's immortals could produce hours upon hours of debate in the years to come. Especially if his career comes to an end with just six races. 

Virtually all of the sport's greatest stars raced 10 times or more, raising questions about whether Flightline's career will be viewed as passing the test of time.

Trainer Bill Mott, who guided the legendary Cigar through 16 straight wins in a career that numbered 33 races from 1993-95, marveled at what he saw two months ago in the Pacific Classic.

"He made a mockery of the horses behind him," he said about Flightline.

Yet Mott also touched on a pitfall of applying platitudes to a career with just six starts over the span of about 18 months of racing starting in April 2021.

"True champions, human or equine, pass the test of time," said Mott, who trains Classic starter Olympiad  . "Look at the great horses,  Spectacular Bid, Forego, Kelso, they ran through several seasons. Greatness is achieved through the test of time."

So are spots in racing's Hall of Fame.

According to Ed Bowen, chairman of the Hall of Fame's Nominating Committee, the last horse in the Hall of Fame with less than 10 individual starts (not including heat races) is Artful, a foal of 1902. That was before 117-year-old Belmont Park first opened its doors.

"From my perspective, the word 'great' when I was young was meant to be special. It wasn't a throwaway line. I don't know how many subscribe to that now, but I expect some proof of ruggedness and durability and I don't where to fit Flightline in. When I hear comments saying I wish this horse would run more, it begs the question 'Why doesn't he run more?' There's no precedent for this horse being accepted as a great horse off five or six races."

Bowen added that applying old standards to modern horses can be problematic and that Flightline could be an exception to a rather old rule.

"On the plus side, he transcends what we think about nature. When a horse wins the Met Mile and then doesn't race until the Pacific Classic, we naturally think he would need a race to sharpen him. So, he's thrown some supernatural stuff at us," Bowen said. "There is a balance between respecting the past and not digging your heels in and using what happened in 1970 as the criteria. A.P. Indy had only 11 starts and I wondered if we were being too forgiving in voting him into the Hall of Fame and then I looked at what he did and I have no qualms about him being a Hall of Famer. Ghostzapper had 11 career starts. There's a march toward numerically shorter careers that has been going on for a while without any detriment but, boy, to get down to six starts in a career, that's quite an interesting thing."

Should Flightline be named Horse of the Year, it will also keep historians busy. Bowen said that the last HOY recipient who made just three starts in a season was Native Dancer in 1954. The Classic would be Flightline's third start in 2022.

At least for Flightline there will be an upcoming litmus test of an abbreviated career. A few years before Hall of Fame committees and voters will give him thumbs up or down, opinions on a short career will surface when Triple Crown winner Justify   becomes eligible for induction in 2024. He only raced six times, but when three of those starts are in Triple Crown races, that number can grow in stature.

"It will be interesting to see if Justify's Triple Crown seals the deal or does he become the only Triple Crown winner not in the Hall of Fame," Bowen said.

Until then, all of the drama and excitement rolled up into Flightline's showdown with Life Is Good  , Epicenter , Taiba , Olympiad and Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike , could give racing fans the fuel for years of unresolvable debate. Yeah, Flightline was great, but could he beat... (fill in your favorite horse, folks).

"There's no way to know if Flightline would beat the great horses of the past, including Secretariat," said West Point partner Mark Brinker. "But I can assure you, all of them would know they were in a life-or-death battle with him. It wouldn't be a walkover for any of them, I know that."