Hanshin Juvenile Fillies Is a Tough Puzzle

There are wide-open races and then there's the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1).

The Dec. 11 renewal of the 1,600-meter (about one mile) event attracted 29 nominations for 18 spots, requiring a draw to fill the final three gates, but the race has a history of fillies needing a bit of luck to win a spot in the field.

Add in that experience among the competitors is in short supply, especially among the likely favorites, with only three unbeaten after two races and only one of those having captured a graded stakes and, well, it's a wide-open race.

Ravel is the graded stakes winner still undefeated after two starts. The Kitasan Black  filly captured the Artemis Stakes (G3) at Tokyo Racecourse Oct. 29, going 1,600 meters—the same distance as Sunday's test. She will in a way be defending family honor as a half sister to Namur, the favorite in both the 2021 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and this year's Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas, G1) who disappointed with fourth- and 10th-place finishes, respectively.

Ravel's assistant trainer Takahide Ando said he's seen his charge learn quickly.

"After her first start, she became very keen to run and I was concerned about that," he said. "But, in the Artemis Stakes, despite the slow pace, she stayed very much well in hand, and that was huge."

Ando also said Ravel has learned not to fear the doors on the starting gate, which might be an issue as she drew the outside No. 18 stall for the race.

Kita Wing, Dura, and Rivara all won graded stakes in their last starts but were were all defeated previously. Rivara, by Kinshasa no Kiseki , won the KBS Kyoto Sho Fantasy Stakes (G3) in her last start. Kita Wing took the Niigata Nisai Stakes (G3) in her most recent. Dura was victorious in the Sapporo Nisai Stakes (G3). Bouton d'Or won the Hakodate Nisai Stakes (G3) in July but then finished 10th in the Kyoto Sho Fantasy.

Umbrail and Moryana remain undefeated but tackle graded company for the first time.

Kita Wing's trainer, Shigeyuki Kojima, put words to what many connections doubtless feel about a race that may decide the futures of many young fillies.

"This time it's a grade 1 and rather than focusing on the others, I just intend to get her to the gate in top shape," Kojima said. "So with that in mind, all has gone well. Of course, this isn't the endpoint. The big aim is, of course, next year's Oka Sho. I'm eager to see how she'll do here."

Atsushi Nishioka, assistant trainer for Dura, also was looking to the future.

"Being 2 years old, she is maturing," Nishioka said. "But she really is looking better each day. And her getting stronger is really going to stand her well in the future."

Given the uncertainties, it's small wonder that, while the race is not known for huge upsets, only four favorites have won in the past 10 years. The favorite reported in the top three only one other time in the same time period.

Handicappers should not be put off of fillies that needed to draw into the race. In previous years, such later superstars as Vodka  in 2006 and Buena Vista  in 2008, drew in, won and went on to remarkably successful careers.