Preakness Stats and American Pharoah’s Triple Crown Potential
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American Pharoah wins the Kentucky Derby and his fifth straight race. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Does American Pharoah have what it takes to win the Triple Crown? The talented colt sure inspired many when he backed up a 2-year-old championship and a pair of resounding sophomore victories with a win in the 141st Kentucky Derby. He’s drawn comparisons to Seattle Slew, and his trainer Bob Baffert has called him the best colt he’s ever trained. If only Triple Crowns were run on paper.
In reality, American Pharoah faces a stiff task, one that no horse has accomplished in 37 years. Since Affirmed’s historic triple in 1978, thirteen horses have added a Preakness Stakes victory to their Kentucky Derby win, and as we all know, none of those managed to pull off the sweep in the Belmont Stakes. The odds are stacked against the Kentucky Derby winner, but he certainly has a shot. Let’s take a look at some of the stats surrounding the Preakness and American Pharoah's bid for the Triple Crown.
Like seven of the previous 16 Kentucky Derby winners, American Pharoah broke from the auxiliary gate in the Derby, but post position is not nearly as important in the Preakness. The field is limited to 14 starters and is often even smaller than that, with an average of 11 starters over the past 20 years. Fewer horses means less traffic, and it becomes much easier to get a good trip.
OXBOW WINS THE 2013 PREAKNESS FROM POST 6
If you’re big on post positions though, those in the middle of the gate generally tend to fare better than those on the far outside or inside. No horse has won from post No. 1 or 2 in 21 years, and last year California Chrome became the first winner from post 3 since 1993. Rachel Alexandra is the only horse to win from either post 13 or 14. Post 6 is the winningest, with a 15.4 percent strike rate. Though American Pharoah drew the unfavorable post No. 1, he faces only seven rivals, making the smallest Preakness field since Red Bullet upset Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. He'll have to break well to outgun the speed breaking to his outside, though, given his preferred on or near the pace running style.
Preakness Post Position Stats
Post Position
2015 Entrant
Most Recent Winner
Wins/Starts
Win Percent
Last Year’s Result
1
American Pharoah
Tabasco Cat (1994)
9/107
8.4%
Dynamic Impact, 7th place
2
Dortmund
Snow Chief (1986)
11/107
10.3%
General a Rod, 4th place
3
Mr. Z
California Chrome (2014)
12/107
11.2%
California Chrome, 1st place
4
Danzig Moon
Curlin (2007)
13/107
12.1%
Ring Weekend, 5th place
5
Tale of Verve
Shackleford (2011)
11/105
10.5%
Bayern, 9th place
6
Bodhisattva
Oxbow (2013)
16/104
15.4%
Ria Antonia, 10th place
7
Divining Rod
Lookin At Lucky (2010)
13/94
13.8%
Kid Cruz, 8th place
8
Firing Line
Bernardini (2006)
10/84
11.9%
Social Inclusion, 3rd place
9
N/A
I’ll Have Another (2012)
4/72
5.6%
Pablo Del Monte, 6th place
10
N/A
Real Quiet (1998)
2/54
3.7%
Ride On Curlin, 2nd place
11
N/A
Point Given (2001)
2/38
5.3%
N/A
12
N/A
Afleet Alex (2005)
3/26
11.5%
N/A
13
N/A
Rachel Alexandra (2009)
1/14
7.1%
N/A
14
N/A
N/A
0/8
0%
N/A
Many of the horses that filled the gate at the Derby sit out the Preakness in favor of the Belmont or go elsewhere for their next race, leaving the second jewel open for any one of a group of Triple Crown newcomers to steal the show. This group of so-called new shooters often includes one of the top choices in the race, but recent history shows they usually aren’t a threat. In the past 25 years the Preakness has been won by a horse that didn’t run in the Derby only three times.
American Pharoah will face three new shooters in Tale of Verve, Bodhisattva and Divining Rod. Tale of Verve is just a maiden winner, though reports from Pimlico he looks good this week. Bodhisattva, meanwhile, takes a big step up in class after a nice win in the Federico Tesio Stakes last month, and Divining Rod enters the race with improving form, fresh off a victory in Keeneland's Lexington Stakes.
Convincing Derby winners often scare off some competition, including rivals that ran in the Derby and those that didn’t. Eventual Triple Crown winners Citation and Count Fleet each faced only three in their Preakness wins. In 1979 1-to-10 favorite Spectacular Bid faced only four challengers before coming up short in the Belmont. This hasn’t necessarily been the case in recent years, though – in 2008 1-to-5 favorite Big Brown faced eleven rivals, and in 2014 1-to-2 favorite California Chrome defeated nine foes. Though American Pharaoh's Derby margin of victory wasn't an impressive one, his reputation likely had something to do with this year's small Preakness field.
CALIFORNIA CHROME FACED NINE IN THE 2014 PREAKNESS
What does Triple Crown history have to tell us? The 11 horses that swept the Triple Crown faced an average of just seven competitors in the Preakness, with five of those new shooters. Five of the Triple Crown winners broke from post No. 1, 2, or 3 in the Preakness but none of them broke outside of post 8. New shooters were at least 40 percent of the rivals that eight of the Triple Crown winners faced. The two new shooters in the 2015 Preakness comprise 43 percent of American Pharoah's rivals.
Can American Pharoah join the list of 11 legends that have won Thoroughbred racing’s most elusive trophy? He’ll be one step closer if he reigns on Saturday, and the world eagerly awaits the result.
Triple Crown Winners and the Preakness
Horse (Year)
Field Size
New Shooters
Post Position
Winning Time
Sir Barton (1919)
12
8
8
1:53*
Gallant Fox (1930)
11
9
1
2:00 3/5
Omaha (1935)
8
3
6
1:58 2/5
War Admiral (1937)
8
5
1
1:58 2/5
Whirlaway (1941)
8
4
1
1:58 4/5
Count Fleet (1943)
4
2
2
1:57 2/5
Assault (1946)
10
3
5
2:01 2/5
Citation (1948)
4
3
4
2:02 2/5
Secretariat (1973)
6
3
3
1:53
Seattle Slew (1977)
9
6
8
1:54 2/5
Affirmed (1978)
7
4
6
1:54 2/5
*The 1919 Preakness was run at a distance of 1 1/8 miles.