Taiba Headlines 2022 Maiden Watch Winners

Trainer Bob Baffert is well known for starting some of his best as 3-year-olds in winter or early spring—Maiden Watch graduates Justify   and Charlatan   come to mind. This year, Taiba  made his first start March 5, winning by 7 1/2 lengths. Since then the Gun Runner   colt has raced exclusively in top-level company.

A winner of the April 9 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1) and the Sept. 24 Pennsylvania Derby (G1), Taiba finished third in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) Nov. 5. He returned Dec. 26 to take the Runhappy Malibu Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park as the odds-on favorite. Forbidden Kingdom , a 2021 Maiden Watch graduate, finished second, while Gary Barber's Perfect Flight , a half brother to grade 3 winner National Flag , finished off the board.

Baffert-trained Midnight Memories , who won her debut April 30 as a 3-year-old, brought her record to four wins and one third in six starts after finishing fourth in the seven-furlong La Brea Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Dec. 26. Her stablemate, the $1 million yearling purchase Ganadora , finished just behind her in fifth.

While it would be difficult to name all of the 21 Maiden Watch graded stakes winners of 2022 (who also first debuted in 2022) there were three others who debuted and then won their top-level tests in 2022: Cave Rock , winner of the Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (G1), American Pharoah Stakes (G1), and second in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1); And Tell Me Nolies  who won the TVG Del Mar Debutante Stakes (G1) and placed eighth in the NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1); and Gina Romantica  who won the Oct. 15 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes Presented by Dixiana (G1T) in her last start.

Cave Rock entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile undefeated with two grade 1 wins under his belt, but the $550,000 yearling purchase finished second, just 1 1/2 lengths behind winner Forte . Graduates Verifying  and Lost Ark  also competed in the Juvenile.

There are other obvious 2-year-old graduates that have begun to make a name for themselves.

Baffert's Arabian Knight , a $2.3 million 2-year-old purchase by owners Zedan Racing Stables, made a much-anticipated debut on Breeders' Cup weekend at Keeneland, winning by 7 1/4 lengths. The Uncle Mo   colt has not made a start since, but is listed as possible for both the Jan. 8 Sham Stakes (G3) and the Feb. 4 Robert B. Lewis (G3).

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has a plethora of 2-year-olds to choose from, unveiled Stonestreet Stables homebred Julia Shining  in October. The full sister to last year's champion 3-year-old filly Malathaat  won impressively in that Keeneland debut and then returned to win the Dec. 3 Demoiselle Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack. She is a probable to make her 3-year-old debut in the Feb. 11 Suncoast Stakes, a one-mile and 40-yard test for 3-year-old fillies at Tampa Bay Downs.

Hoosier Philly , who just missed getting into the Juvenile Fillies, is now 3-for-3 after winning the Nov. 26 Golden Rod Stakes (G2), Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T) also-eligible Knockyoursocksoff  finished five lengths behind her for a second straight grade 2 placing, and Pretty Mischievous  and Pure Pauline  finished third and fourth, making it a Maiden Watch graduate superfecta. Pretty Mischievous, a daughter of Into Mischief   and grade 1 winner Pretty City Dancer , added the Dec. 26 Untapable Stakes to her resume, winning by 3 1/4 lengths at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

But less obvious 2-year-old starters could emerge as big stars next year.

Godolphin's homebred Strobe , a son of Into Mischief and grade 1 winner Flashing , is 3-for-4 as of Dec. 22 when he added a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race to his resume, winning by six lengths. The Brad Cox trainee's only loss was a runner-up finish Nov. 12 at Churchill Downs.

Tommy Towns Thoroughbreds' Ten Rings , a half sister to grade 1 winner Eight Rings  , has made two starts. After winning her debut at Los Alamitos she was eased Aug. 7 at Del Mar to finish last of 10 in her most recent start.  The Pioneerof the Nile filly is set to make a return to racing in a Dec. 29 allowance optional claiming race at Turfway Park for trainer Jonathan Wong.

Others worth a mention include Cox-trainees Giant Mischief  who is 2-for-3 and whose only loss was a second in the Dec. 17 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes, and Hit Show , who is also 2-for-3 after winning at Oaklawn Park Dec. 17; Jay Em Ess Stable's homebred Full Moon Madness , who finished second in the Nov. 6 Nashua Stakes (G3); recent Remsen Stakes (G2) winner Dubyuhnell  for trainer Danny Gargan; and Chad Brown trainee Liguria , who won the Dec. 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes (G3T).

Since Maiden Watch began tracking end of year statistics, some clear patterns have emerged.

Of the maiden winners tracked each year using the Maiden Watch criteria, approximately 30% go on to be graded stakes runners in the first year. This past year proved to be similar. Of 297 horses tracked (152 3-year-olds and 145 2-year-olds), 103 (35%) ran in graded stakes and 31 (10%) of those ran in grade 1 races. There were 41 (14%) graded stakes-placed horses and 21 (7.1%) graded stakes winners, which includes the four grade 1 winners.

Maiden Watch criteria consist of winners who have not started more than five times and are either out of a graded stakes winner or graded stakes producer, or are those that went through the sales ring and brought more than $500,000. It should also be noted that the statistics given do not include maiden claiming winners or 3-year-olds that won after Aug. 1.

Statistics from past years show that graded stakes winners most often win in their first five starts at the maiden special weight level. Dams that are graded stakes winners and proven producers, which are more likely to produce successful offspring, are used to narrow the pool of horses considered. And lastly, high sale prices indicate owners and agents have expertly analyzed the horse and they believe it will provide a return on their investment.