Divining Rod a Danger to American Pharoah in Preakness

By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase
Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah, winner of five straight races since last summer, headlines the 140th running of the Grade 1, $1.5-million Xpressbet.com Preakness Stakes. Only four horses that faced him in the Derby return on two weeks rest for the second jewel of the Triple Crown, with many of the rest freshening up for the Belmont Stakes in three weeks.
Returning to try and turn the tables on American Pharoah are Derby runner-up Firing Line and third-place finisher Dortmund, with the former having battled head to head with American Pharoah on the turn but beaten a length at the finish line. Danzig Moon finished a non-threatening fifth in the Derby and hopes to improve. Mr. Z, who finished a troubled 13th for Zayat Stables (which also owns American Pharoah) in the Derby, will race for new owner Calumet Farm in the Preakness. Three horses that skipped the Derby will attempt to play spoiler to any hope American Pharoah has of entering the Belmont Stakes starting gate with a Triple Crown on the line. That group is led by Grade 3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes winner Divining Rod, who carries the colors of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro. Federico Tesio Stakes winner Bodhisattva will attempt to be the first horse since Deputed Testimony in 1983 to win both races in succession. Tale of Verve rounds out the field.
Divining Rod has done little wrong in five career starts, four on dirt, winning two of those and finishing second and third in the other two dirt races. His best career effort came in his most recent race, the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland last month, with a 105 Equibase Speed Figure. In that race, Divining Rod showed a lot of maturity in relaxing in third in the early stages. Racing on the inside for the first three-quarters of a mile, Divining Rod came out to the three path and drove past the leaders with little encouragement from his jockey, accelerating to a three-length win. That’s the same kind of trip American Pharoah got in his Derby win. With Divining Rod coming back off five weeks rest as well as getting North American leading jockey Javier Castellano as his pilot, he may be capable of posting the upset in this year's Preakness.
American Pharoah did exactly what he had to do to win the Derby and, in doing so, won for the fifth straight time, going back to last September. He has run very consistently this year, earning a 108 speed figure in the Rebel Stakes, a 107 figure in the Arkansas Derby and a 111 figure two weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, jockey Victor Espinoza kept American Pharoah off the rail and clear of any trouble then, when called upon in the stretch, the colt responded as a top athlete should, drawing off at the end. There’s little doubt in my mind that if he repeats that last effort, American Pharoah can win the second leg of the Triple Crown and in three more weeks try to accomplish what no horse has done since Affirmed in 1978. Just the same, it will be tough given how hard he had to run in the Derby and with the potential for more rested runners to have the extra energy in reserve in the last eighth of a mile.
2015 KENTUCKY DERBY

Firing Line surprised me with how well he ran when second in the Derby, given he had won against inferior competition in the Sunland Derby prior to that. However, considering Firing Line missed by a head to Dortmund earlier this year in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and in the 2014 Los Alamitos Futurity, it wasn't entirely surprising to see the colt hang on doggedly to midstretch before American Pharoah drew off to win by a length. In the Lewis, Firing Line earned a career best 114 Equibase Speed Figure, regressing to 106 in the Sunland Derby before improving to a 110 figure in the Kentucky Derby. Expected to be first or second in the early stages of the Preakness, Firing Line could be as determined to hang on for a share down to the finish line again. As such, if either of the other contenders makes a mistake or doesn't fire, he can win.
FIRING LINE WINNING SUNLAND DERBY

Although not a win contender, Tale of Verve is a horse I will be using in the second and third positions on any and all exacta or trifecta tickets played in the Preakness. His first four races weren’t much, but blinkers were removed for his fifth career start on March 5 and he missed by a half-length with a nice rally. In his next start, on April 23, Tale of Verve made a pretty powerful move on the turn to go from six lengths back to two in front at the finish line. Joel Rosario rode him for the first time that day and although the 81 speed figure was very low compared with figures earned by some of the other Preakness contenders, the way Tale of Verve passed horses willingly despite a slow pace, without much encouragement from the jockey, makes me believe he can pass most of these in the late stages for a piece of the purse and to complete the exacta or trifecta.
Dortmund was already on a pattern of declining speed figures coming into the Derby (114, 111 and 108), so I took a stand against him as a win contender. Although he held on for third after setting the pace in the Derby, Dortmund folded rather easily after setting a leisurely tempo and regressed again to a 107 figure, so he doesn't appear capable of rebounding to win the Preakness.
About the rest:
Danzig Moon passed multiple horses to finish a non-threatening second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April, earning a career-best 105 in the process. Four weeks later in the Derby he pretty much ran the same from start (sixth) to finish (5th) showing no late kick whatsoever and regressing to a 102 speed figure. As such, I don't see him being a contender in the Preakness.
Bodhisattva won last fall in his first two-turn try and fourth career start. After finishing third in an allowance race, Bodhisattva tried stakes competition in three of his next four races, but he could manage only two fourths and one fifth-place finish. Improving to finish second in the Private Terms Stakes with a then-career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure, Bodhisattva improved again when winning the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico last month with a 107 figure. On the plus side, Bodhisattva won after relinquishing the lead in the stretch, but on the other side of the coin he was pretty much all-out to win in a field of six. These will be much tougher.
Mr. Z is 1-for-13 in his career, the maiden win coming last June in the first start of his career. His best career effort came when beaten by a head and a nose by Dortmund and Firing Line, respectively, in the Los Alamitos Futurity last December with a 107 figure. Since then, Mr. Z has three third-place finishes in five races with his most recent effort the 13th-place finish in the Derby, so he will need significant improvement to threaten in the Preakness. 
My Selections:
Divining Rod
American Pharoah
Firing Line
Note: Use Tale of Verve in the second and third position on any exacta or trifecta tickets played.
You can get Ellis' detailed selections, analysis and betting recommendations for the entire day of racing Saturday at Pimlico at Equibase.com
$1.5-million Xpressbet.com Preakness StakesSaturday, Pimlico Race Course, Post time 6:18 p.m. ET1 3/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsT.V.: NBC 4:30 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M-L

1

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

4-5

2

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

7-2

3

Mr. Z

Corey Nakatani

D. Wayne Lukas

Calumet Farm

20-1

4

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

15-1

5

Tale of Verve

Joel Rosario

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke

30-1

6

Bodhisattva

Trevor McCarthy

Jose Corrales

Jose Corrales

20-1

7

Divining Rod

Javier Castellano

Arnaud Delacour

Lael Stables

12-1

8

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

Arnold Zetcher

4-1