Betting the Black-Eyed Susan on a Budget

Aah Chocolate makes her stakes debut in the Black-Eyed Susan after winning both of her career starts to date. (Photo by Coady Photography)
The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico on Friday puts the spotlight on a group of nine 3-year-old fillies that will compete for the $250,000 purse at the distance of 1 1/8 miles.
Trainer Bob Baffert will send out morning-line favorite Luminance, who was last seen running second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks after setting a solid early pace. The horse who beat her that day, Stellar Wind, came back to finish fourth in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks as the betting favorite. In her first two career starts, Luminance emerged victorious in both events by closing from off the pace. It will be interesting to see what running style she shows on Saturday.
My pick to win the race is the undefeated Ahh Chocolate, who is trained by Neil Howard. I liked the way she looked in her most recent win at Keeneland, where she tried a route distance for the first time. She showed she can sit a good trip toward the middle of the pack and kick on late in the race. She’s lightly raced and can be a big threat with any kind of improvement.
Danessa Deluxe is an interesting runner who is making only her second start under new trainer Jorge Navarro, who is winning at a 29 percent clip for 2015. Danessa Deluxe finished a decent third in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and also improved her speed figures. She has not finished worse than fourth in six lifetime starts and top jockey John Velazquez will be aboard once again.
Pure is a filly who finally broke her maiden in her seventh start but the most encouraging angle is that she has improved with every start of 2015. She is the only one in the field who comes directly off a maiden win, so she might be ignored on the toteboard, but I think she has a good shot to finish in the top three.
Devine Aida had a four-race win streak snapped when she finished fourth in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She has been given some time off since that effort and her trainer seems to do well with this move. She likes to be on the lead or close to the pace and there are not a ton of pacesetters in this field.
My bets on a $20 budget:
$8 win on #3 Ahh Chocolate
$.50-cent trifecta (Total $6): 3 with 1,2,7,8 with 1,2,7,8
$.50-cent trifecta (Total $6): 1,2,7,8 with 3 with 1,2,7,8
$250,000 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
Friday, Pimlico Race Course, Race 11 at 4:50 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles on the dirt for 3-year-old fillies

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M-L

1

Danessa Deluxe

John Velazquez

Jorge Navarro

Gelfenstein Farm

9-2

2

Pure

Victor Espinoza

Jim Cassidy

DP Racing

10-1

3

Ahh Chocolate

Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Neil Howard

Stoneway Farm

6-1

4

Gypsy Judy

Horacio Karamanos

Robin Graham

James Hibbert

20-1

5

Include Betty

Drayden Van Dyke

Tom Proctor

Brereton Jones and Tim Thornton

5-1

6

Sweetgrass

Julien Leparoux

Ian Wilkes

Six Column Stables, LLC, Randall L. Bloch, John Seiler & Fred Merrit

12-1

7

Devine Aida

Jesus Rios

Ramon Morales

Stronach Stable

10-1

8

Luminance

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

9-5

9

Keen Pauline

Javier Castellano

Dale Romans

Stonestreet Stable

15-1