TeamABR Preakness Analysis and Selections

The 2015 Preakness drew a field of eight, including Bob Baffert's powerful duo of Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah and Derby third-place finisher Dortmund. The 1 3/16-mile race on Saturday at Pimlico drew one of the smallest fields in recent history but looks to be a tough challenge for American Pharoah.
The America’s Best Racing brand ambassadors have been providing race selections and betting analysis throughout the spring, so we’ve compiled all of the ambassadors’ selections for the Preakness plus some additional strategy.
Dan Tordjman
1st – #1 American Pharoah: He was my pick in the Derby, so I can’t jump off the bandwagon now. I don’t love the No. 1 post but I don’t think it’s a deal breaker either. I actually thought his Derby was stronger than it looked, given the fact that he covered extra ground when floated wide. It’ll be interesting to see how the pace unfolds in the race with several new shooters, including Divining Rod, who can prompt the pace if asked.
2nd – #2 Dortmund: It’s amazing how quickly this horse - who was previously 6-for-6 - has gotten lost in the mix following his third-place finish in the Derby. While he was easily passed by Firing Line and American Pharoah, I thought he did well to hang on for third while going 1 1/4 miles for the first time while on the lead. I think he’ll fare better sitting slightly off the pace here and my head tells me he wins the race, despite my heart pulling me back to American Pharoah.
3rd – #6 Bodhisattva: This is certainly going to be the class test of all class tests for this horse, but he seems like an improving type who can get a piece if several things go his way. But he also needs several horses to regress. There are a lot of ifs here but I can’t come up with anything better for trying to find value in this race.
Strategy:
$20 straight trifecta: (#1) American Pharoah with (#2) Dortmund with (#6) Bodhisattva

BODHISATTVA WINS THE TESIO STAKES

Photo by Jim McCue
Vince Mathews
1st – #8 Firing Line: Out of the "big three" (American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firing Line), I believe Firing Line has the best chance to repeat the top effort he showed in the Kentucky Derby. Firing Line may offer the best betting value out of the three as well.
2nd – #7 Divining Rod: This colt may have the most untapped potential out of all eight entrants in the 140th Preakness Stakes. He looked fantastic winning the Coolmore Lexington Stakes and top jockey Javier Castellano takes the call on Saturday.
3rd – #1 American Pharoah: An impressive and deserving winner of the Kentucky Derby, but that race was undoubtedly the toughest race of his career. Now with only two weeks off, I think American Pharoah could run out of gas late in the Preakness.
Strategy:
$20 to win on (#8) Firing Line. 
Mike Johnson
1st – #1 American Pharoah: The quick turnaround from his boldest effort to date has the makings for firing a dud. However, breaking from the rail should lead to a smooth, ground-saving trip, compared with his uber-wide Derby effort. He’s the most talented horse in the field at this age, and I think this is a great gut-check for him. He answers the test here.
2nd – #7 Divining Rod: Rested and ready to fire, this colt seems to have matured over his past two starts and found a running style that will set him up well to potentially poach victory from American Pharoah. His top-shelf bloodlines, plus having world-class jock Javier Castellano, certainly don’t hurt his chances here.
3rd – #2 Dortmund: Baffert would not have him in this position if he didn’t think he could contend. I expect another solid, hit-the-board performance in the Preakness. Win? Probably not. But there’s no shame in a second or third.
Strategy:
$2 exacta: All with (#7) Divining Rod ($14)
$.50 trifecta: All with (1) American Pharoah, (7) Divining Rod with (1) American Pharoah, (7) Divining Rod ($6)

DORTMUND

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Victoria Garofalo
After an 18-horse field on the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby, we've whittled down to an unusually small field of eight (with really only four horses having a legitimate chance) for the 2015 Preakness.
1st –#1 American Pharoah: Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times … and all three have come back to win the Preakness. If all goes according to plan, Saturday should make it 4-for-4. If he wins on Saturday, American Pharaoh should make yet another valiant attempt in three weeks when he runs in the Triple Crown's last leg, the Belmont Stakes, at Belmont Park. Jockey Victor Espinoza knew he had the superior horse at Churchill Downs and, to keep him out of any possible trouble, rode him wide the entire race, still winning by a length. Even with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms and rain showers Saturday, he moves up on a wet track, having easily won the Rebel Stakes in the slop. It’s his race to lose.
2nd – #2 Dortmund: He ran a valiant third in the Derby, despite not being 100 percent comfortable on the lead, and deserves another chance to make this close or even turn the tables if American Pharoah blinks. It's a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, so if he can relax on an easy lead, down the stretch he might be tough to catch.
3rd – #8 Firing Line: He had to pass Dortmund in the Derby stretch and then try to hold off the charge of American Pharoah. Firing Line was deftly handled by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens despite not changing leads the entire stretch. He would be no surprise either. Sadly – from a bettor's standpoint – it looks like an instant replay of the Derby with the top three being head and shoulders over this suspect field. Danzig Moon, who ran a good second in Keeneland's Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, had a troubled fifth in Derby and might be the only horse worth playing underneath to boost your tickets value.
Strategy:
$10 exacta: (1) American Pharoah with (2) Dortmund, (8) Firing Line = $20
Small savers
$3 trifecta: (1) American Pharoah with (2) Dortmund, (8) Firing Line with (4) Danzig Moon = $6
$4 trifecta: (2) Dortmund with (1) American Pharoah with (8) Firing Line = $4
Ciara Austin
1st –#1 American Pharoah: It's hard to deny the talent that American Pharoah holds. The 2015 Kentucky Derby winner is the heavy morning-line favorite at 4-to-5 odds in Saturday's Preakness and, though will be hard to beat, there are a few other strong contenders on the field.
2nd – #8 Firing Line: Firing Line who finished second by one length behind American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby could easily be victorious given the shorter distance and with Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens aboard.
3rd – #4 Danzig Moon: I'd also keep an eye out for Danzig Moon this time around and add him to your exotic bets at 15-1 odds. The Malibu Moon colt – Malibu Moon also sired 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb – has been steadily improving and I don't think we've seen the best of him yet.
Strategy:
$5 trifecta: (1) American Pharoah, (8) Firing Line with (1) American Pharoah, (4) Danzig Moon, (8) Firing Line with (4) Danzig Moon, (8) Firing Line = $20
$10 exacta: (1) American Pharoah with (4) Danzig Moon, (8) Firing Line = $20
DANZIG MOON

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Jose Contreras
I see this race the exact same way as the Kentucky Derby with American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Firing Line as my top three and, given the short Preakness field, this will not be a good betting race if you like those same horses. But we might be able to turn those 4-to-5 odds on American Pharoah into about 5-to-1 odds with a straight exacta.
1st –#1 American Pharoah: He prevailed in the Kentucky Derby despite a wide trip throughout the running of the race. I would have liked to have seen a stronger late kick at the end, but he got the job done. If it rains at Pimlico, we know he can handle the wet surface and his inside post position should allow him to save some ground around the first turn.
2nd – #2 Dortmund: Dortmund might be more effective at this shorter distance, and I expect him to once again go out to the lead. I think he's got the best chance to give his stablemate a run for his money.
3rd – #8 Firing Line: He finally turned the tables on Dortmund in the Kentucky Derby and is now looking to turn the tables on American Pharoah. I once again think he will get the same exact trip, tracking Dortmund all the way around the track, but he might not have enough down the lane this time around.
Strategy:
$20 straight exacta: (1) American Pharoah with (2) Dortmund
$1.5-million Xpressbet.com Preakness StakesSaturday, Pimlico Race Course, Post time 6:18 p.m. ET1 3/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsT.V.: NBC 4:30 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M-L

1

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

4-5

2

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

7-2

3

Mr. Z

Corey Nakatani

D. Wayne Lukas

Calumet Farm

20-1

4

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

15-1

5

Tale of Verve

Joel Rosario

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke

30-1

6

Bodhisattva

Trevor McCarthy

Jose Corrales

Jose Corrales

20-1

7

Divining Rod

Javier Castellano

Arnaud Delacour

Lael Stables

12-1

8

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

Arnold Zetcher

4-1