Forte, Instant Coffee Lead Initial Derby Dozen Rankings

1. Forte  

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher

Pedigree: Violence  —Queen Caroline , by Blame   

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner breezed for the first time as a 3-year-old Jan. 21 with an easy three furlongs in :38.38 at Palm Beach Downs. Later this week the colt is near certain to receive a championship for his 2022 achievements at an Eclipse Award ceremony Jan. 26. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher reports he is pointed toward the March 4 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. He rates on top in the Derby Dozen, being battle tested as the only current 3-year-old male with a pair of two-turn grade 1 victories on dirt.

2. Instant Coffee   

Gold Square/Brad Cox

Bolt d'Oro  —Follow No One , by Uncle Mo   

Sagamore Farm (KY)

This colt began his 3-year-old season auspiciously, rallying from last to defeat fellow graded stakes winner Two Phil's  in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. In advancing from sixth to first, he picked up the leaders more quickly than he had in winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last year, albeit against a scratch-depleted grade 3 lineup. Instant Coffee would appear to have the stamina to relish the Derby's 1 1/4 miles, but his late-running style leaves him with a lot of horses to pass, a tricky proposition in a 20-horse Derby field.

3. Verifying   

Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael B. Tabor/Brad Cox

Justify  —Diva Delite , by Repent 

Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (KY)

This colt's progress was apparent in his season debut Jan. 14 at Oaklawn Park. Settling just off the early leader, he drew away for a dominant victory, earning a 99 Equibase Speed Rating. Toss in his stakes experience at 2, running second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and it is obvious this half brother to filly champion Midnight Bisou has a bright future.

4. Arabian Knight   

Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert*

Uncle Mo—Borealis Night , by Astrology  

Corser Thoroughbreds (KY)

Although Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is barred by Churchill Downs Inc. from competing at its tracks through mid-2023, and his horses cannot earn qualifying points toward the May 6 Kentucky Derby (G1), he and other leading Baffert trainees land in the 'Dozen' given they could qualify with eventual transfers into other stables. (Messier  and Taiba  did so in 2022.) A blowout first-out winner Nov. 5 at Keeneland, this $2.3 million juvenile purchase gets his initial stakes test in the Southwest Stakes (G3) Jan. 28 at Oaklawn against a trio of Brad Cox prospects, among other talented runners.

5. Faustin   

Michael Lund Petersen/Bob Baffert*

Curlin  —Hard Not to Like , by Hard Spun

DATTT Farm (KY)

He did not run like a typical debut winner, lagging in the rear of the pack over the first furlong of a six-furlong race Dec. 26 at Santa Anita Park. Urged into action by Ramon Vasquez, he moved into fifth, then fourth—an early move that can lead to flattening out late. But this colt instead just kept finding more, angling out from behind the leaders and drawing away by 2 3/4 lengths in a final time of 1:10.08. Impeccably bred, he should benefit from this experience and additional distance.

6. Corona Bolt   

Stonestreet Stable/Brad Cox

Bolt d'Oro—Stormbeforethecalm , by Quiet American  

Summerfield Sales Agency and Etarip Stables (FL)

This 2-for-2 colt ranks as one of the quickest members of his class, having scored a first-out victory in November at Churchill Downs, followed by an easy victory in the Dec. 26 Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds. In that six-furlong race, he shot to the front and quickened away with a final quarter-mile in :24.04 to finish in 1:09.96. A gauge of his route potential is forthcoming in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest.

7. Cave Rock  

Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman/Bob Baffert*

Arrogate —Georgie's Angel , by Bellamy Road  

Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing (KY)

Prior to Cave Rock's second as the favorite to Forte in the Breeders' Cup when caught late, he scored three wins in as many starts, including in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and Del Mar Futurity (G1). He would rank higher in the initial 'Dozen' rankings, except he has laid low this winter without having recorded a workout. Every other horse on this list has at least one breeze or a race in 2023. 

8. National Treasure 

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert*

Quality Road  —Treasure , by Medaglia d'Oro 

Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds (KY)

His stalking trip was less than ideal when third in the Jan. 8 Sham Stakes (G3), without clear sailing until angled out for the stretch run. He lost by a couple of necks to stablemates Reincarnate  and Newgate , regressing somewhat off his show effort against a better field in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He needs better than what he showed in Sham if he is to close the gap with the elite in the division.

9. Hejazi  

Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert*

Bernardini —G Note , by Medaglia d'Oro 

Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

High expectations have long followed this $3.55 million juvenile buy. He lost his initial three starts at 2 before picking up his maiden diploma in his first start as a 3-year-old, blitzing 6 1/2 furlongs Jan. 8 at Santa Anita in 1:14.58. That earned him a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, the highest by a 3-year-old this year. He also picked up a grade 1 placing as a juvenile at 1 1/16 miles when he showed in the American Pharoah Stakes. 

10. Blazing Sevens  

Rodeo Creek Racing/Chad Brown

Good Magic  —Trophy Girl , by Warrior's Reward   

Tracy Farmer (KY)

A top-level winner at age 2 in defeating the promising Verifying in a sloppy renewal of the Champagne, he closed out his freshman campaign with a fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Impeded at the start, he gained ground late on the second turn to go from seventh to fourth, only to have his rally stall. He was three lengths by victorious Forte when that one raced in second at the eighth pole and was 5 1/4 lengths behind him at the finish. He recorded his first workout of the winter Jan. 21 at Payson Park with three furlongs in :38 1/5.

11. Victory Formation  

Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations/Brad Cox

Tapwrit  —Smart N Soft , by Smart Strike 

Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)

Speed, determination, and consistency are traits he has in abundance. After winning two sprints in Kentucky—withstanding a taxing speed duel in the second of those—he was in control throughout in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, prevailing by three lengths. Those chasing him in the Smarty Jones did not appear stellar—runner-up Angel of Empire 's two wins came at Horseshoe Indianapolis and third-place Denington  was subsequently fourth in the Lecomte. 

12. Curly Jack  

Michael McLoughlin/Tom Amoss

Good Magic—Connie And Michael , by Roman Ruler  

Betz/J. Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

Bottled up in a congested Kentucky Jockey Club Nov. 26, he did well to grab second once finding daylight—a performance that looks even better than it even did a couple of months ago. First-place Instant Coffee returned to win the Lecomte, and seventh-place Cyclone Mischief  took a first-level allowance optional claimer by 5 3/4 lengths Jan. 8 at Gulfstream Park. In other route efforts last fall, this colt also took the 1 1/16-mile Iroquois Stakes (G3) and was fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

* Author's Note: Although Baffert is barred by Churchill Downs Inc. from competing at their tracks through mid-2023 for medication violations, and his horses cannot earn qualifying points toward the May 6 Kentucky Derby (G1), some leading Baffert trainees are included in the Derby Dozen given that they could qualify after transfers into other stables later this year. Baffert has also sued CDI, seeking an injunction that could allow him to participate.