Bram’s Take: Triple Crown or Frown

Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah and trainer Bob Baffert at Pimlico on Wednesday. (All photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
We might have a Triple Crown winner, but he won’t be 3 years old. Far from it.
Bob Baffert has been to these rodeos since I can remember these rodeos. But this one is different than any he or I has ever experienced. He’s got the Kentucky Derby champ American Pharoah, who was the Ronda Rousey of the prep circuit and Floyd Mayweather of the Derby stretch. He also has Dortmund — a colossus of mythical proportions who found out the hard way that Pharoah has got the historic goods, too. And now we have the second of potentially three showdowns of stablemates who that could alter the legacy of their trainer but not change the decades long drought of a Triple Crown champ.
So this has left Baffert in the precarious position of putting the best interest of the sport (American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown) up against the best interest of sportsmanship (and, of course, the ownership of Dortmund, who clearly belongs here if the connections choose). Baffert could turn the Preakness into Deflategate 2.
For the sake of honest competition, Dortmund, assuming health, should race against Pharaoh three times. Holding Dortmund out for any reason would have turned Baffert into horse racing’s deflator - skimming the field of real threats to Pharoah’s destiny.
PHAROAH AND BAFFERT

Baffert is in a win-win-win scenario or lose-lose-lose scenario. It just depends on perspective. And should Dortmund win at Pimlico, clearly Baffert will be on the firing line of criticism ... speaking of Firing Line, are we overlooking him AGAIN?
The field of Preakness Stakes:
1—American Pharoah: The small field figures to mitigate any issues on the rail for Pharoah, short of some kind of disaster at the break. We assume Dortmund happily takes the lead and, if the Derby was any indication, Pharoah will be pleased if he’s just off the pace by the first turn and considering most of the speed (and there isn't much of it) resides on the far outside, I just don't see how he’s not in perfect stalking position. On the one hand, I love the idea of him winning from the far outside at Churchill Downs, then the rail at Pimlico — he couldn’t have historically been placed in tougher slots to etch his name. But let’s also be fair (and the Derby proved this), this particular year had very few dominant runners and a lot of horses who were a complete grade below. When was the last time traffic at the Derby didn’t play a huge role in the outcome? It didn’t two weeks ago as the three real contenders got where they needed to be at the break and weren’t threatened. It was amazingly predictable.
2—Dortmund: I’m curious why his morning-line odds are actually shorter then Firing Line’s, considering Firing Line's finish at the Derby. The shorter distance probably works in Dortmund’s favor assuming he’s up to form after the short layoff. But it does appear that Firing Line and American Pharoah have just a little extra gas when their jocks ask for it. Clearly he can win here, but all things being equal, I’m more inclined to believe he won’t hit the board when all is said and done.
DORTMUND AT PIMLICO

3—Mr. Z: This horse is going to cash a lot of checks in his career when he starts getting placed in lower-tier stakes races that he can score. As of now, he’s like a sparring partner for the big boys, a good seat filler at the Oscars. He’s always there ready to run, but he can’t win races like this. Get up Z, Clooney is back from the bathroom.
4—Danzig Moon: He was among the best of the rest in the Derby. Again, the lack of traffic allowed for us to see what was what, and he represented himself well. The pace wasn’t hot, but it was championship worthy and, while Danzig Moon never threatened the leaders, he was a few lengths off the pace the bulk of the way. He’s clearly better then three of the eight entries, arguably four depending on how you look at Divining Rod. And because I think Dortmund gets passed in the stretch again, he is a clear candidate to steal a spot on the board. So his 15-1 line is appealing, especially if somehow Firing Line is off his game, too.
DANZIG MOON AT PIMLICO

5—Tale of Verve: 30-1? Please. He should be 9,000,000-1. He’s won a grand total of $54,640. That’s not enough to get into the VIP room with Johnny Football. One of his best showings was finishing second at the Fair Grounds in a 1 1/16-mile race run in 1:47. Pharoah won a similar race as a 2-year-old in 1:41 and the closest finisher behind him could barely see his tail. This would be an all-time upset.
6—Bodhisattva: I don’t know how to pronounce this word. That’s a red flag. Why must Thoroughbreds sometimes be saddled with names from the language of jibberish? His best race was his last race and it was at Pimlico, so there is that. He also looks like he wants to get out to the lead, which in the case of this field is a huge problem. He’s outclassed, so maybe he tries to bust out of the gate and maybe he wears someone out. Probably not, but I have to find something useful to say about whatever his name is.
7—Divining Rod: Clearly the most intriguing entry in the field because, while no one thinks he is of the class of the top three, it won’t take much for him to be right there with them. He was awesome in the Lexington Stakes, winning handily and posting the best speed figure of his five-race career. Of the other top contenders, he’s the only one who didn’t run two weeks ago, which gives him in my opinion a huge advantage. Javier Castellano gets his first ride on him, which is always dicey, but Julien Leparoux was busy with Danzig Moon, and I don’t blame him for staying right there. He figures to follow Firing Line out of the gate to the near front of the pack. How he’s positioned will determine how much of a shot he has. And the overall stamina of the big boys will determine if he can completely steal this thing. He’s dangerous.
DIVINING ROD AFTER LEXINGTON STAKES WIN

8—Firing Line: Why is he the third choice of the Preakness oddsmaker? Did he not watch the Derby? Man, Gary Stevens tried his best to push Pharoah wide enough to slow him down in the stretch. So Gary was on his game and this horse (as predicted by yours truly in the Derby blog) was the only one heading in who featured the kind of split times that had scare written all over them. And now, he might be the pony who ruins the Baffert Crown, too.
FIRING LINE AT PIMLICO

The Pick: Is there any reason to push the fractions in this field? Assuming everyone feels that hitting the gas early makes no sense, I assume by the backstretch the obvious contenders are breezily heading toward the final turn and that’s where the separation will occur. I’m guessing Dortmund tries to go wire to wire. I’m guessing Firing Line and American Pharoah are right there waiting to pass. And I’m going to guess that Danzig Moon is a length or two ahead of the three also-rans: Mr. Z, Tale of Verve and Bodhisattva. Which leaves Divining Rod, the most interesting horse in the field.
In the end, I’m assuming history remains on the line: American Pharoah, barely, by half a length over a charging Divining Rod and a trying-to-hang-in-there-for-third Firing Line.
The Full Milty feels unnecessary here because there doesn’t figure to be much money to be had but since I love the exotics, I’d go: trifecta wheel: American Pharoah over all of them, besides Tale of Verve, and pray for a couple of longshots to hit the board.
Of course, if this happens, we may have to talk with ole Bob about giving Dortmund the day off at Belmont.
$1.5-million Xpressbet.com Preakness StakesSaturday, Pimlico Race Course, Post time 6:18 p.m. ET1 3/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsT.V.: NBC 4:30 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M-L

1

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

4-5

2

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

7-2

3

Mr. Z

Corey Nakatani

D. Wayne Lukas

Calumet Farm

20-1

4

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

15-1

5

Tale of Verve

Joel Rosario

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke

30-1

6

Bodhisattva

Trevor McCarthy

Jose Corrales

Jose Corrales

20-1

7

Divining Rod

Javier Castellano

Arnaud Delacour

Lael Stables

12-1

8

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

Arnold Zetcher

4-1