Ehalt and Pedulla: Can American Pharoah Lose the Preakness?

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Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah attempts the second Triple Crown jewel on Saturday, the Preakness at Pimlico. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Bob Ehalt and Tom Pedulla became fast friends when they met on their first day at Fordham Preparatory School in the Bronx, N.Y., in 1971. Bob soon introduced Tom to the joys of Thoroughbred racing.
They have endured some rough moments at the track, with Tom taking exception when Bob repeatedly smacks him on the back with a program as one of their horses launches an all-out drive. Much to Tom’s chagrin and the amusement of onlookers, Bob has been known to call for security as he proceeds to cash a $27 trifecta.
They have owned a number of horses together. They are often seen carrying on at the track as if they never left their teenage years.
Before they eat enough crab cakes to endanger the species, here is their take on the 140th Preakness Stakes and whether or not American Pharoah can be beat:
PEDULLA: Bob, that’s three consecutive Derby winners for me, in case you are keeping track. I admit that Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah were not exactly big prices but, as I constantly remind you, I cannot control the payoffs. If I could, I would not have driven a 2003 Acura to Pimlico Race Course. Is it a bad sign when the engine block shakes as I approach 55 miles per hour?
As sure as I was that American Pharoah would get the job done at Churchill Downs, everything now is telling me that he can and will be beaten. I expected brilliance from the 2-year-old champion on the first Saturday in May. It was nowhere to be found. Victor Espinoza expended every ounce of energy to get his horse to the finish line one length ahead of Firing Line. They barely edged ahead in the final strides even though Firing Line did not change leads for the first time in his career.
There are many reasons to believe Firing Line can reverse that order of finish. While American Pharoah may well find himself on a heavily pressured lead after breaking from the rail, Gary Stevens and Firing Line will have the advantage of starting farthest outside in post eight. Shortening up from 1 1/4 miles to 1 3/16 miles is another advantage for the Derby runner-up.
FIRING LINE

I also expect Firing Line to be the significantly fresher horse. American Pharoah is being sent to the starting gate for the third time in five weeks. Firing Line will be competing for the second time since his 14 1/4-length run for fun in the Sunland Derby on March 22. That was little more than a workout for him.
Espinoza may have little choice but to be on the engine in what figures to be a hot pace. I can envision Stevens sitting comfortably off that, confident his horse will fire big when asked.
EHALT: Glad to hear you finally listened to my advice and left your 1975 Pinto with 475,689 miles on it at home. The Acura gives you a much better shot of making it back across the Tappan Zee Bridge.
Three Derby winners in a row? I had indeed lost track. Think I have to go back to 1979 to give me three Derby winners.
You definitely deserve some props for a streak like that. Beyond that, I’m also proud to inform you that in honor of that achievement your picture is now being posted on the Wikipedia page for “chalk.”
Surprised to see you jump off the American Pharoah bandwagon. Maybe it’s because you heard I’m jumping on.
My logic in trying to beat American Pharoah in the Derby was that I thought he needed one more prep. He proved me wrong, but seeing him win by only a length tells me my logic wasn’t off-base.
To beat a field that good off just two preps in seven months says American Pharoah is something special and he’ll move forward off his race at Churchill Downs. He’ll not only win the Preakness, he’ll take it easily, by much more than a length.  
PEDULLA: I give American Pharoah a shaky vote for second only because of the respect I have for his trainer, Bob Baffert, when it comes to the Derby and the Preakness. Few have ever done it better. All three of Baffert’s previous Derby winners took the middle leg of the Triple Crown, a tremendous testament to him.  
EHALT: I can see a bit of Alydar in Firing Line and as much as I loved the Calumet star, he was safer bet for the bottom of the exacta rather than the top.
Ditto for Firing Line. He’s second best once again.
PEDULLA: Dortmund is kind of a forgotten horse because of all the attention surrounding his stablemate, American Pharoah. But it should not be overlooked that he swept the first six starts of his career before setting the pace in the Derby and weakening to be third. Put him down for another creditable third-place showing. I would not want to see Martin Garcia have him on the front end again, though.
EHALT: Dortmund is a quality runner, without a doubt, but it’s hard to envision a scenario in which he can dust off both American Pharoah and Firing Line on the front end and cruise to victory. I’d like his chances for second if he could swap posts with Firing Line, but from post two, he figures to finish third once again. 
DANZIG MOON

PEDULLA: Danzig Moon endured some rough going in finishing fifth in the Derby. He can close for fourth here. I wish I could make a better case for him. Since I can’t, I expect to be driving the Acura home – and hoping it gets me there.
EHALT: When D. Wayne Lukas orchestrates the sale of a horse so it can run it the Preakness, it’s a storyline that can’t be ignored. Mr. Z had a tough trip in the Derby and deserves a second chance here. Can see your point about Danzig Moon, but, you know me, I can’t head to the betting windows without a longshot somewhere in the mix.
$1.5-million Xpressbet.com Preakness StakesSaturday, Pimlico Race Course, Post time 6:18 p.m. ET1 3/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsT.V.: NBC 4:30 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M-L

1

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

4-5

2

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

7-2

3

Mr. Z

Corey Nakatani

D. Wayne Lukas

Calumet Farm

20-1

4

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

15-1

5

Tale of Verve

Joel Rosario

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke

30-1

6

Bodhisattva

Trevor McCarthy

Jose Corrales

Jose Corrales

20-1

7

Divining Rod

Javier Castellano

Arnaud Delacour

Lael Stables

12-1

8

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

Arnold Zetcher

4-1