Predicteform.com’s Upset Watch: Preakness Stakes
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Firing Line trains on the main track at Pimlico Race Course in preparation for the Preakness Stakes. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course drew four of the top five finishers from the Kentucky Derby, including winner American Pharoah, runner-up Firing Line and third-place finisher Dortmund, the Derby pacesetter.
The middle jewel of the Triple Crown can be a tough spot to find value as nine of the last 18 Kentucky Derby winners came back with a win in the Preakness. But during that 18-year stretch, when the Derby winner lost there was money to be made as the Preakness winner returned an average of $15.40 for a $2 win ticket.
Could the 2015 Preakness be ripe for an upset?
Firing Line ran right back to an 81 final figure in the Derby, running an impressive second to American Pharoah. Initially a cause for concern, those back to back 81s look strikingly like a foundation. If in fact his foundation (two or more races around the same final figure) is 81, he is a formidable opponent for American Pharoah. The outside post position (#8) gives him a tactical advantage if he breaks well, which is expected. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens rode Oxbow on the lead to win the 2013 Preakness Stakes at odds of 15.40-to-1 ($32.80 for a $2 win bet). This setup could be eerily similar with the exception of the emerging superstar on the rail. The Play: Top Contender – speed, an 81 final figure foundation and the 4-to-1 morning-line odds as the third choice provide considerable value on top.
$1.5-million Xpressbet.com Preakness StakesSaturday, Pimlico Race Course, Post time 6:18 p.m. ET1 3/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsT.V.: NBC 4:30 p.m. ET
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
M-L
1
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
4-5
2
Dortmund
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Kaleem Shah
7-2
3
Mr. Z
Corey Nakatani
D. Wayne Lukas
Calumet Farm
20-1
4
Danzig Moon
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John Oxley
15-1
5
Tale of Verve
Joel Rosario
Dallas Stewart
Charles Fipke
30-1
6
Bodhisattva
Trevor McCarthy
Jose Corrales
Jose Corrales
20-1
7
Divining Rod
Javier Castellano
Arnaud Delacour
Lael Stables
12-1
8
Firing Line
Gary Stevens
Simon Callaghan
Arnold Zetcher
4-1