Tip of the Week: The Winning Level

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Wagering on perennial maidens usually takes a toll on a bankroll, but unless you’re talking about Zippy Chippy, at some point an also-ran will blossom into a full-fledged winner.
Katie O. came into the fourth race at Keeneland on April 15 knowing nothing about the winner’s circle. Winless in 11 career starts, she showed only a smidgen of potential.
In seven races at the Maiden Special Weight level, she finished in the money only once.
Dropped into a maiden $30,000 claimer, she finished a distant second among three tries for that claiming tag. Shipped to Oaklawn Park, she was sixth in a $25,000 maiden claimer, though a sloppy track may have compromised her chances.
Up next was the Keeneland race in a $20,000 maiden claimer.
Running at the lowest level of her career, she turned in a sharp effort, leading at the eighth pole before she was collared late and finished second by a neck.
She had found her proper level and was finally worthy of a wager.
That opportunity came on May 8 in the ninth race at Churchill Downs, again in a $20,000 maiden claimer.
Perhaps if Katie O. had finished a distant second at long odds in that previous race, there would be reasons to believe her last race was a fluke. But in that April 15 race, Katie O. went off at 5.80-to-1 odds and lost in a photo finish.
Katie O. was listed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the May 8 race, which wasn’t overly enticing. Yet as post time approached, Katie O.’s odds rose all the way to 7.80-to-1. At that price, she deserved serious consideration in the race, and those that agreed felt a-ok after the race as she won by 3 ½ lengths and paid  $17.60 to win while topping a $269.20 exacta.
THE LESSON: It may take a while, but at some point even a perennial maiden finds a winning level.
KATIE O.'S PAST PERFORMANCES