Cave Rock Solidly in 'Dozen' After First Breeze of 2023

1. Forte  

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher

Pedigree: Violence  —Queen Caroline , by Blame   

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

The 2-year-old champ of 2022 has been steady, though not fast, in his training this year, capped by a slow five-furlong workout Feb. 11 in 1:03.48. All of his breezes came at Palm Beach Downs, where the surface is not as quick as at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Expect Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to dial up something more demanding this weekend toward the colt's intended return in the March 4 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream. Works aside, this colt notched three grade 1 wins last year at 2, topped by the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). 

2. Arabian Knight   

Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert*

Uncle Mo  —Borealis Night , by Astrology  

Corser Thoroughbreds (KY)

As of Feb. 14, no decision had been rendered by a judge in Kentucky related to Bob Baffert's request for a preliminary injunction that could allow the Hall of Fame trainer to run horses in this year's Kentucky Derby (G1). He is currently barred by Churchill Downs Inc. from running at its tracks through early July, an action taken by the track operator after Medina Spirit  tested positive for betamethasone in the 2021 Derby. This 2-for-2 colt, winner of the Jan. 28 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, recently recorded an effortless three-furlong breeze in :35 3/5 at Santa Anita Park Feb. 13. Should Baffert lose in court, his horses would need to start for another trainer by the end of February to earn points and qualify for the May 6 Run for the Roses.

3. Instant Coffee   

Gold Square/Brad Cox

Bolt d'Oro  —Follow No One , by Uncle Mo   

Sagamore Farm (KY)

After winning the Jan. 21 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, trainer Brad Cox decided to give this colt a little break, not only skipping the Feb. 18 Risen Star Stakes (G2) there but also not working him for an extended period. Already having 32 qualifying points for the Derby, he is a favorable position to make the race. Having a late-running style well suited to the long stretch at Fair Grounds, the March 25 Louisiana Derby (G2) at the New Orleans track would appear a likely next stop.

Watch: Litigate, Hit Show Win Derby Preps, Just Miss Derby Dozen Cut

4. Faustin   

Michael Lund Petersen/Bob Baffert*

Curlin  — Hard Not to Like , by Hard Spun  

DATTT Farm (KY)

The San Vicente Stakes (G2) runner-up and Baffert trainee was given a stiff drill Feb. 12 at Santa Anita in which he and workmate Jackstown  were credited with the co-fastest half-mile time of the morning, timed in :46 2/5. This gray came under a bit more pressure in the joint breeze, but even in his races, he seems like the type that needs a little encouragement to deliver his best. By Curlin   out of multiple grade 1-winning grass mare Hard Not to Like , look for him to relish a stretch out to a route.

5. Verifying   

Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael B. Tabor/Brad Cox

Justify  —Diva Delite , by Repent  

Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (KY)

Mentioned as a possibility for the Risen Star, he is instead expected to race in the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. By running there, he will return to a surface on which he won an allowance optional claiming race Jan. 14. Midnight Bisou 's little half brother was a little chilly in betting in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager, closing at 34-1 odds, though he has been out of sight and perhaps therefore out of mind over the past month.

6. National Treasure 

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert*

Quality Road  —Treasure , by Medaglia d'Oro   

Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds (KY)

He and Sham Stakes (G3) winner Reincarnate  breezed in tandem Feb. 12 at Santa Anita, with both timed in 1:11 3/5 for six furlongs while under urging. This colt has yet to win a stakes race but has placed in all three of his stakes attempts, twice in grade 1s, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He is one of many 3-year-olds Baffert could put on plane for a trip to Arkansas for the Rebel.

7. Blazing Sevens  

Rodeo Creek Racing/Chad Brown

Good Magic  —Trophy Girl , by Warrior's Reward   

Tracy Farmer (KY)

Like those from Forte, his workouts do not leap out as he readies for his 3-year-old bow, but that is not atypical for a Chad Brown trainee. His horses tend to work under a hold. Curious to see what the Champagne Stakes (G1) winner can do around two turns this year, as he still needs to prove himself a bit under such conditions after his rally flattened out late when a slow-starting fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall at Keeneland.

8. Tapit Trice  

Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable/Todd Pletcher

Tapit  —Danzatrice , by Dunkirk  

Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)

He looks like a more talented version of Litigate , with whom Pletcher won the Feb. 11 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. A stakes start is on deck for him, likely in a month or so, after he won an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Feb. 4, an eight-length victory so impressive that he was bet down to 15-1 odds in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool.

9. Victory Formation  

Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations/Brad Cox

Tapwrit  —Smart N Soft , by Smart Strike 

Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)

The 1 1/8-mile Risen Star should be telling, both from a class and distance perspective, illustrating whether he is a leading Derby threat or more of a high-class sprinter/miler type. After winning two sprints in Kentucky, he led wire to wire in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn in a mile race that began and ended at the sixteenth pole. Now he races an extra furlong, faces speed to his inside, and must try to fend off the closers over the approximate quarter-mile stretch at Fair Grounds. 

10. Curly Jack  

Michael McLoughlin/Tom Amoss

Good Magic—Connie and Michael , by Roman Ruler  

Betz/J. Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

With only four works this year, he does not appear fully cranked for his Risen Star return, though a strong effort is still anticipated. He won fresh on debut last year for trainer Tom Amoss. Two of six returnees from the Nov. 26 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs returned to immediately win their next starts (Instant Coffee , Cylcone Mischief), and this colt had a troubled, bottled-up trip in finishing second. 

11. Cave Rock  

Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman/Bob Baffert*

Arrogate —Georgie's Angel , by Bellamy Road  

Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing (KY)

He rejoins the 'Dozen' after returning to the work tab with a four-furlong breeze in :47 4/5 Feb. 13 at Santa Anita. Fresh in his first breeze of 2023, he tugged at his rider to catch a horse breezing in front of him on the turn, and the two finished down the stretch together. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up and winner of two grade 1 races needs to have all go right this winter and spring to get sufficient fitness and racing before the Derby. Alternatively, the May 20 Preakness Stakes (G1) could become more of an attainable target. 

Work of the Day from @santaanitapark—Cave Rock worked 4 Furlongs in 47.80 on February 13th, 2023, for trainer Bob Baffert. pic.twitter.com/4cj5j86pR0

— XBTV (@WatchXBTV) February 13, 2023

12. Reincarnate  

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert*

Good Magic—Allanah , by Scat Daddy 

Woods Edge Farm (KY)

With his Sham form validated by the next-out success of Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Newgate , he edges out fellow graded stakes winners Practical Move , Rocket Can , Litigate , and Hit Show  for the final spot in the rankings. This quick-working colt seems to be in a developing pattern, having won two in a row after runner-up finishes in his initial three starts. 

* Author's note: Although Baffert is barred by CDI from competing at its tracks through early July and having his horses earn Derby points after a series of medication positives, some of his leading trainees are included in the 'Dozen' given that they could qualify after transfers into other stables. Two of his horses qualified in that manner last year (Messier , Taiba ). Baffert is also awaiting a ruling from a judge after requesting a preliminary injunction that could allow him to participate.