Rebel Stakes Next Big Test for Derby Dozen 3-Year-Olds

1. Forte  

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher

Pedigree: Violence  —Queen Caroline , by Blame   

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Not since Nyquist   in 2016 has a 2-year-old champion from the previous year won the Kentucky Derby (G1)—something this three-time grade 1 winner aims to accomplish. Two of the better Derby efforts since then from Eclipse Award winners came from Good Magic   (second, 2018) and Essential Quality   (wide fourth, 2020). Forte's Hall of Fame trainer, Todd Pletcher, expressed satisfaction at the colt's latest drill for the March 4 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park, a five-furlong move in 1:01.41 Feb. 18 at Palm Beach Downs—his sharpest move of the winter on the tiring training surface. "I'm very pleased with his fitness level and the way he's been training," Pletcher said. 

2. Arabian Knight   

Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert*

Uncle Mo  —Borealis Night , by Astrology  

Corser Thoroughbreds (KY)

With a two-year participation ban of trainer Bob Baffert continuing until early July at Churchill Downs Inc. tracks, fellow Derby Dozen runner Reincarnate  was entered in the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park with Tim Yakteen as trainer. At least some other Baffert horses figure to follow suit in upcoming races to accumulate needed qualifying points for the May 6 classic at Churchill Downs. Arabian Knight appears to have vast talent, having recorded a blowout victory in the slop in the Southwest Stakes (G3) after a runaway debut win at Keeneland last fall.

3. Instant Coffee   

Gold Square/Brad Cox

Bolt d'Oro  —Follow No One , by Uncle Mo   

Sagamore Farm (KY)

Before the Risen Star Stakes (G2) was staged at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots Feb. 18, trainer Brad Cox got back to business in New Orleans with perhaps his best prospect for this year's Derby. In his first workout since his come-from-behind victory in the Jan. 21 Lecomte Stakes (G3), Instant Coffee breezed  a half-mile in :49 4/5. Later in the day, Two Phil's  validated the Lecomte form with a close third behind Angel of Empire  (also trained by Cox) and Sun Thunder  in the Risen Star. 

4. Faustin   

Michael Lund Petersen/Bob Baffert*

Curlin  — Hard Not to Like , by Hard Spun  

DATTT Farm (KY)

The San Vicente Stakes (G3) runner-up worked five furlongs in company with Fort Bragg  Saturday in :58 4/5, his second consecutive fast work for Baffert, though he was outworked by his grade 3-placed stablemate by a half-length. Being by Curlin, sire of such stayers as Vino Rosso  , Malathaat , Keen Ice  , Clairiere , Nest , and many others—chances are likely he should appreciate a route. This colt is also a steady-paced grinder that seems well suited to added distance based on his style.

5. Verifying   

Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg, Susan Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Michael B. Tabor/Brad Cox

Justify  —Diva Delite , by Repent  

Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (KY)

Instant Coffee was not the only Derby prospect to breeze for Cox this past Saturday at Fair Grounds. This Justify colt, a half brother to 2019 older dirt female champion Midnight Bisou , breezed four furlongs in a near-bullet :59 4/5 with stablemate Giant Mischief . Both colts are stakes placed—Verifying last year ran second in the Champagne Stakes (G1)—and they are entered in the Rebel at Oaklawn. That will be his second start of the year after a fast allowance optional claiming win there Jan. 14.

6. National Treasure 

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Bob Baffert*

Quality Road  —Treasure , by Medaglia d'Oro   

Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds (KY)

Breezing Feb. 19 at Santa Anita Park in tandem with fellow Derby Dozen runner Reincarnate, he seemed a smidge better in the drill, finishing just in front and not requiring as much encouragement on the gallop out. Baffert opted to go a little easier on them this week after a six-furlong move in 1:11 3/5 a week prior. Expecting to see him in action soon since after finishing third as the favorite Jan. 8 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Reincarnate runs this Saturday in the Rebel with Yakteen his trainer of record. 

7. Blazing Sevens  

Rodeo Creek Racing/Chad Brown

Good Magic  —Trophy Girl , by Warrior's Reward   

Tracy Farmer (KY)

Like Forte, he is getting close to a return from the Nov. 4 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)—a race Forte won with this colt fourth after a slow start. Though his most recent five-furlong drill of 1:02 1/5 may not leap out, take note that it came at Payson Park, where works tend to be a couple seconds slower than at a track like Gulfstream Park. The Champagne Stakes winner's breeze was co-fastest of six at the distance, sharing the bullet with fellow Chad Brown trainee and older horse Highest Honors , a last-out second in the 2022 Red Smith Stakes (G2T).

8. Tapit Trice  

Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable/Todd Pletcher

Tapit  —Danzatrice , by Dunkirk  

Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)

An overpowering allowance optional claiming win Feb. 4 at Gulfstream seemingly took out none of the spark of this talented runner, who resumed breezing Saturday with a half-mile in :50.93 at Palm Beach Downs. Look for Pletcher to get more serious with his next drill as he readies him for his first start in stakes company, with options in Florida next month seeming attractive.

9. Reincarnate  

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan/Tim Yakteen

Good Magic—Allanah , by Scat Daddy 

Woods Edge Farm (KY)

He travels from California to Arkansas for the $1 million Rebel Stakes, the richest prep to date in 2023 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, which, not surprisingly, has lured a top field. Verifying, Red Route One , Gun Pilot , and Giant Mischief are other leading Rebel contenders. Starting for Yakteen after having been prepped by Baffert leading up to the race, he is eligible to secure Derby points. A winner of two in a row after three initial runner-up finishes, he was determined in repelling next-out graded stakes winner Newgate  in taking the Sham.

10. Cave Rock  

Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman/Bob Baffert*

Arrogate—Georgie's Angel , by Bellamy Road  

Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing (KY)

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up now has two half-mile breezes under his belt, a keen :47 4/5 initial move Feb. 13, followed by an easier :49 2/5 breeze Feb. 20, both at Santa Anita for Baffert. He is further behind others in his preparation this winter, but could conceivably make the Derby if he earns qualifying points with another trainer when back in racing action in mid-to-late March or April. Alternatively, his connections could opt to pass the Derby and point for the May 20 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course. His talent is unmistakable, having won won three of four starts last year, including a couple grade 1s.

WATCH: Angel of Empire, Rocket Can Join Derby Dozen Lineup

11. Angel of Empire  

Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox

Classic Empire  —Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve 

Forgotten Land Investment and Black Diamond Equine (PA)

The Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles should be to his liking, with four of his five starts coming at a mile or longer, topped by a victory in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes Saturday. Enthusiasm is tempered by the slowest time in the Risen Star (1:51.47) since Fair Grounds extended the race to the 1 1/8-mile distance in 2020 (two divisions that year.) By way of comparison, Epicenter   zipped the distance in 1:49.03 last year. 

12. Rocket Can 

Frank Fletcher Racing Operations/Bill Mott

Into Mischief—Tension by Tapit   

Woodford Thoroughbreds (KY)

Like Angel of Empire, he did not run quickly last out in winning in graded company. He captured the Feb. 4 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) in 1:44.97, the slowest time at the 1 1/16-mile distance in the race since Booklet won the Holy Bull in 2002 in 1:46.16. The Holy Bull was run at different distances from 2005-12. He earned just an 89 Equibase Speed Figure in the Holy Bull, though his performance was higher on scale in performance figures that take into account ground loss, owing to a wide trip.

* Author's note: Although Baffert remains barred by CDI from competing at its tracks through early July and having his horses earn Derby points after a series of medication positives, having lost in court last week, some of his leading trainees are included in the 'Dozen' given that they could qualify after transfers into other stables. Reincarnate is running in this Saturday's Rebel Stakes for Yakteen, and others pointed to the Derby and trained by Baffert this winter figure to follow suit, moving into Yakteen's barn or that of another trainer.