The "European Road to the Kentucky Derby" soldiers on to its penultimate leg March 15 on the Kempton Park Polytrack but it would require a significant stretch of imagination to see any of the seven entrants loading into the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
The seven-race series that started last autumn on turf in Ireland, France, and England, guarantees the top points-getter an invitation to the Kentucky Derby (G1).
That's the theory.
The reality is none of the seven lining up at Kempton Park is an early nominee to the U.S. Triple Crown, none has contested any of the previous legs in the series, and none yet has displayed anything hinting at Classics-level ability on any surface.
Nonetheless, the two top-rated 3-year-olds in the field have had success while traveling.
Alzahir exits a first-up victory in the Al Rayyan Mile, a local group 2 affair on the turf, in Doha Feb. 18. The Sea The Stars gelding, trained by John and Thady Gosden, picked up his first career win last October on the Lingfield all-weather course.
Brave Emperor , a Sioux Nation gelding, also won his last outing and it, too, involved travel. The Archie Watson trainee dominated the stretch run in the Feb. 12 Prix de la Californie on the Cagne-Sur-Mer Polytrack in the south of France, winning by 1 3/4 lengths. He's 3-for-4 with a second on all-weather tracks.
Another of the Kempton Park prospects, Lieber Power, a Cracksman colt, holds an entry for the Epsom Derby (G1), but his one win from two starts as a 2-year-old came on the all-weather.
Twenty-four horses have earned points in the first five races in the "European Road" series. The first four events were contested on turf in the autumn and are more likely proving grounds for the European Classics than anything on dirt in the United States.
Cairo won the Patton Stakes at Dundalk in Ireland to kick off the all-weather portion of the competition, earning 20 points to take the lead in the series. The Coolmore homebred Quality Road colt is a U.S. Triple Crown nominee but also holds entries to the English Two Thousand Guineas (G1), the Irish Two Thousand Guineas (G1), and the Irish Derby (G1).
Cairo's trainer, Aidan O'Brien, won the Patton in 2018 with Mendelssohn , who then went on to win the U.A.E. Derby (G2) but finished last in the Kentucky Derby.
Stormy Entry , a Charles Fipke homebred colt by Point of Entry , currently is No. 2 on the list with 6 points earned by finishing third in the Patton. Fipke said before the Patton Stakes that, should the invitation devolve to him, he would accept it for Stormy Entry.
The leaderboard will be shuffled after the final race in the "European Road," the Cardinal Condition Stakes April 1 at Chelmsford City. That heat bestows 30 points upon the winner with 12, 9, 6, and 3 points to the next four finishers.