Hard to Figure, Fort Bragg Battle in Sunland Park Derby

Hard to Figure  and Fort Bragg , stablemates in the Bob Baffert barn through late February—with the former still trained by the Hall of Famer and the latter transferred last month to trainer Tim Yakteen—square off March 26 against five other 3-year-olds in the $600,000 Sunland Park Derby (G3).

The 1 1/8-mile race at Sunland Park potentially offers Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points on a 50-20-15-10-5 scale to its top-five finishers, half of point totals of other domestic Derby preps this weekend, though only three entrants are currently eligible to receive points. Hard to Figure is ineligible for this year's Derby, owing to Churchill Downs Inc. keeping an equine medication-sparked ban of Baffert from participating at its tracks through early July, and three others—How Did He Do That , Henry Q , and Wild On Ice  are not Triple Crown nominated.

Should any of that trio become late Triple Crown nominees, requiring a $6,000 fee by March 27, they could pick up points from their respective finishes on Sunday.

Hard to Figure, owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman, is favored at 2-1 on the morning line under Flavien Prat following a close second in the Feb. 4 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park. The Hard Spun   colt is 1-1-2 in five overall starts, with his one victory in the restricted Capote Stakes last fall at Los Alamitos Race Course.

His Robert B. Lewis performance, in which he pressed the early pace, resulted in a neck defeat in a quick race behind the now-sidelined Newgate .

Baffert is a three-time Sunland Park Derby winner, having won it most recently in 2014 with Chitu  .

Fellow Southern California raider Fort Bragg, who races for the partnership of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan, ran fifth most recently behind Practical Move  in the March 4 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. Racing for the first time since a third-place finish in the Dec. 17 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), he chased the leaders three-to-four wide in a 5 1/2-length loss.

Having been transferred from Baffert to Yakteen preceding that race, the Tapit   colt earned five qualifying points toward the May 6 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Juan Hernandez returns in the irons aboard the 4-1 third-choice on the morning line.

Henry Q is the 3-1 second choice after 14 3/4-length frontrunning score at Sunland Park in the Feb. 28 Mine That Bird Derby, the final local prep for the Sunland Derby. That marked his first start for New Mexico-based trainer Todd Fincher, winner of the 2018 Sunland Derby with Runaway Ghost .

Henry Q had previously won a maiden optional claimer in Southern California in his third start for then-trainer Doug O'Neill. The Blame   colt races for The Del Mar Group, a partnership that includes college sports coaches Rick Pitino, Chip Kelly, and Mick Cronin.

The Sunland Park Derby has produced just one Kentucky Derby winner: Mine That Bird , who rallied up the rail to a 50-1 upset in the 2009 Run for the Roses after a fourth-place finish in the Sunland Park Derby.

Also Sunday at Sunland are six supporting stakes, topped by the $300,000 Sunland Park Oaks, a Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep. 

Local stakes winner Flying Connection  is the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the Sunland Park Oaks over Southern California shipper and 2-1 second choice Doinitthehardway . Five other 3-year-old fillies are in the 1 1/16-mile race.

Entries: Sunland Park Derby (G3)

Sunland Park, Sunday, March 26, 2023, Race 10

• Grade III
• 1 1/8m
• Dirt
• $600,000
• 3 yo
• 4:45 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1How Did He Do That (KY)	Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr.	122	Steven M. Asmussen	9/2
2	2Low Expectations (KY)	Mario Gutierrez	122	Antonio C. Garcia	6/1
3	3Fort Bragg (KY)	Juan J. Hernandez	122	Tim Yakteen	4/1
4	4Henry Q (KY)	Edwin A. Maldonado	122	Todd W. Fincher	3/1
5	5One in Vermillion (CA)	Harry Hernandez	122	Esteban Martinez	6/1
6	6Hard to Figure (KY)	Flavien Prat	122	Bob Baffert	2/1
7	7Wild On Ice (TX)	Ken S. Tohill	122	Joel H. Marr	20/1

Entries: Sunland Park Oaks

Sunland Park, Sunday, March 26, 2023, Race 8

• STK
• 1 1/16m
• Dirt
• $300,000
• 3 yo Fillies
• 3:41 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Flying Connection (KY)	Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr.	121	Todd W. Fincher	9/5
2	2Cairo Moon (KY)	Leandro D. Goncalves	121	Nancy Summers	12/1
3	3Foolish Delight (KY)	Miguel A. Perez	121	Greg Green	6/1
4	4Doinitthehardway (KY)	Flavien Prat	121	Bob Baffert	2/1
5	5Una Palabra (KY)	Harry Hernandez	121	Vann Belvoir	5/1
6	6Don't Get Pickled (CA)	Glenn W. Corbett	121	Miguel L. Hernandez	8/1
7	7Love Tank (KY)	Ken S. Tohill	121	Nancy Summers	8/1