New Format Puts Derby Hopefuls with 40 Points in Limbo

There may be one last stop left on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1), but do not expect it to matter much.

The quest for one of the 20 spots in the Run for the Roses that started Sept. 17 with the Iroquois Stakes (G3) will finally come to an end April 15 with the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland.

With a total of 40 qualifying points at stake—and only 20 and 8 points going to the first two finishers—the Lexington should have little to no impact on the Derby Leaderboard. The probable Lexington starters as of April 8 were Confidence Game , Curly Larry and Mo , First Mission , Midnight Rising , and Victory Formation . 

From that group, Confidence Game is already locked into a spot in the field for the May 6 opening jewel of the Triple Crown with 57 points, good for 12th on the Leaderboard. None of the others can crack the Top 20 or come close to it with the 20 points awarded to the Lexington winner, meaning there cannot be an addition to the field from the current list of probables. The only impact on the Leaderboard could come from attrition if Confidence Game turns in a clunker and his connections lose, well, confidence in him.

As a result, the bar for a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate currently stands at 45 points, pending the inevitable defections, injuries, and illnesses that are a certainty to happen over the next few weeks before the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Yet for two horses, not even 45 points was enough to survive the cut at the moment.

With the overseas connections of Continuar  accepting an invite for the 20th spot through the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series, technically, only 19 spots remain and that last berth currently belongs to Jace's Road  with 45 points. Directly above him in 18th by virtue of higher graded stakes earnings is Reincarnate , also with 45 points, while the 3-year-old on the outside looking in and in need of a defection is Skinner , who also has 45 points but has about $26,000 less in non-restricted stakes earnings (the format's tiebreaking criteria) than Jace's Road. Cyclone Mischief  also has 45 points but trails Skinner by about $37,000 in stakes earnings.

That scenario could change quickly. For example, three horses who are in the Top 20 (Blazing Sevens , 46 points, 17th; Sun Thunder , 54, 14th; Raise Cain , 64, 9th) were third through fifth, respectively, in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and were about six lengths behind the top two of Tapit Trice  (150, 4th) and Verifying  (54, 13th). Those performances could have their connections wondering if their horses are ready for a grueling 1 1/4-mile test in the Kentucky Derby.

Even with the likelihood of some change in the Top 20, what still stands out is that Churchill Downs' decision to add points this year for fifth-place finishes and enhance the points for third and fourth has raised the bar in terms of past standards. 

This year, for example, the points payoffs were 100-40-30-20-10 and 50-20-15-10-5 during the final two months of the chase. A year ago, those figures were 100-40-20-10 and 50-20-10-5. 

Since the point system was introduced in 2013, no horse with 40 or more points was excluded from the final field. In six of those years, horses with 22 points or less broke from the starting gate.

Yet as of Saturday night, with the cut at 45, the four Run for the Roses candidates with 40 points—all of whom finished second in the 100-40-30-20-10 Championship Round preps-were on the outside looking in, no closer than 23rd.

The higher cut also claimed Red Route One  and Instant Coffee , both of whom could have wrapped up a spot with a fourth or better in their final 200-point prep but finished sixth. Red Route One is 28th with 33 points after a third in the Breeders' Futurity (G1), fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and seconds in both the Southwest Stakes (G3) and Rebel Stakes (G2), while Instant Coffee won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at 2 and the Lecomte Stakes (G3) in January after finishing fourth in the Breeders' Futurity but is 29th with 32 points.  

Trainer Brad Cox has four 3-year-olds in the Top 20 (Angel of Empire , 154 points, 3rd; Hit Show , 60, 11th; Verifying, 54, 13th; and Jace's Road) but laments that Instant Coffee will have to point to the Peter Pan Stakes (G3, May 13 at Belmont Park) or Preakness Stakes (G1, May 20 at Pimlico Race Course) instead of the Kentucky Derby.

"It's been a mad dash for points and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out in the next few weeks. Things are going to happen," Cox says. "I have a horse in Instant Coffee who I think is good and is one of the Top 20 3-year-olds in the country and it looks like he won't get a shot to run. I was told it was done to get people to run more, but I feel it had the opposite effect. People are waiting and trying to get in at the end."