At a Glance: Sizing Up Lexington Stakes Field

The $400,000 Lexington Stakes (G3) April 14 at Keeneland is the last qualifying points race for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and this year it is living up to that reputation. Of the 11 starters, one has a chance to secure a spot in the Run for the Roses field.

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Disarm  is currently 26th on the main Road to the Kentucky leaderboard with 40 points, but would vault into the Top 20 by finishing third or better in the Lexington, adding to the drama in the final chapter of a typically long and winding road.

1. Baseline Beater  (20-1): Not much to get excited about in this one. After breaking his maiden, he was ninth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at 54-1 odds. This is easier but his speed figures are a notch below the others.

JOCKEY: Corey Lanerie TRAINER: Neil Pessin

2. Reinvest  (30-1): He seems to be getting better and won a two-turn Tampa Bay Downs allowance race last time out. If he continues to take a step forward, he could be a factor. Of course it would need to be a big step forward.

JOCKEY: Joe Talamo TRAINER: Timothy Hamm

3. Demolition Duke  (6-1): Missed by a neck to a well-regarded stablemate in a Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots allowance race. That was a strong springboard to this race, giving him the look of a top contender, especially with Brad Cox training and Flavien Prat riding.

JOCKEY: Flavien Prat TRAINER: Brad Cox

4. Transect  (30-1): He was no factor in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, finishing 10th on a muddy track. He has never been on a dry, dirt track so at least he has some reason for hope for improvement on a fast track.

JOCKEY: Gerardo Corrales TRAINER: Paulo Lobo

5. First Mission  (3-1): A big maiden winner for Cox last time out, he handled the stretchout to two turns quite nicely. Continued progress makes him a major player here.

JOCKEY: Luis Saez TRAINER: Brad Cox

6. Disarm  (7-2): A second in the Louisiana Derby put him in the Derby chase and a third here will lift him into the field. The connections are not shy about running on what others view as short rest, so expect a big try from him. While winning is not the only thing for him, he does look best in this spot.

JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz TRAINER: Steve Asmussen

7. Denington  (20-1): He enjoyed minor success on the Triple Crown success, finishing third back on Jan. 1 in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Most recently he was 10th in the Louisiana Derby, which does not generate much optimism. On plus side, his trainer, Ken McPeek, is well-known for springing an upset in a race like this.

JOCKEY: Brian Hernandez Jr.  TRAINER: Ken McPeek

8. Empirestrikesfast  (4-1): He definitely struck fast in his debut as he showed plenty of tenacity on the front end to win at 23.90-1. The time was very quick and he appears to have a bright future, but it will be a challenge to handle all of the early pressure with so little seasoning.

JOCKEY: Frankie Dettori TRAINER: Bill Mott

9. Prairie Hawk  (15-1): Could be an interesting longshot after finishing fourth by less than five lengths to Tapit Trice  in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Finds easier competition here and adds John Velazquez in the saddle, which is a positive.

JOCKEY: John Velazquez TRAINER: Saffie Joseph Jr.

10. Curly Larry and Mo  (50-1): He has a nice turn of speed but his last four starts have been on turf. He didn't want any part of this distance on turf last time out, and it's unlikely he'll perk up on dirt from this post.

JOCKEY: Reylu Gutierrez TRAINER: Caio Caramori

11. Arabian Lion  (7-2): He was a keen second on this track Breeders' Cup weekend, but disappointed in his next two starts in stakes company. Trainer Bob Baffert gave him a couple of months off and has shipped him to Kentucky for this test. Though he has the outside post, he has enough speed to offset that and be factor throughout. Certainly seems talented enough to figure in the exotics.

JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz Jr. TRAINER: Bob Baffert

THE PICK: Disarm

LIVE LONGSHOT: Prairie Hawk

SUPERFECTA: 6-5-11-3