Forte, Tapit Trice Continue to Top Derby Dozen

1. Forte  

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher

Pedigree: Violence  —Queen Caroline , by Blame   

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

The Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite took his first laps around the Churchill Downs oval April 18 after arriving by van from Florida early the previous day. His mid-month arrival should give him two breezes beneath the Twin Spires in preparation for the May 6 classic. He will gain an opportunity to get accustomed to his surroundings—not that he has shown he needs it. Last year's champion juvenile male won at Belmont Park, Saratoga Race Course, Keeneland and Gulfstream Park—taking the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) at the latter track after training off-site at Palm Beach Downs.

Watch: Disarm Earns Sufficient KY Derby Points, Forte Gallops

2. Tapit Trice  

Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable/Todd Pletcher

Tapit  —Danzatrice , by Dunkirk  

Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)

If one were to simply compare last-race Derby preps, his victory in the Blue Grass (G1) was arguably better than Forte's Florida Derby triumph. He was more responsive to his rider on the second turn—while Forte needed the stretch to find high gear—and the Blue Grass seemed to draw more quality, top to bottom. That noted, he still rates behind stablemate Forte due to the latter's body of work and because this colt is still prone to tardy starts and dislike of kickback.

3. Angel of Empire  

Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox

Classic Empire  —Armony's Angel , by To Honor and Serve 

Forgotten Land Investment and Black Diamond Equine (PA)

The Arkansas Derby (G1) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner breezed a half-mile in company with Louisiana Derby (G2) seventh-place finisher Tapit's Conquest  at Churchill April 15 in :48 1/5. Though they crossed the wire and galloped out on relatively even terms, he appeared to travel the easier of the two. Trainer Brad Cox has raved about this colt's stamina, suggesting he should relish the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby. Jockey Flavien Prat and Cox have connected at a 37% clip together in 2022-23, and Prat's first pairing with Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby resulted in a 4 1/4-length victory.

4. Practical Move  

Leslie Amestoy, Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., and Roger Beasley/Tim Yakteen

Practical Joke  —Ack Naughty , by Afleet Alex  

Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Though middle or outside posts are typically preferred by the connections of horses in the Kentucky Derby, this colt seemingly would be fine with something toward the inside, an extreme post like the fence notwithstanding. He has come up the rail to win his last three starts in Southern California and is not intimidated by such trips. He appears a bit more tactical than the three that lead him on this list, often making backstretch or early second-turn moves on his way to victory. While he may handle 1 1/4 miles, not convinced he will move up with the distance to the extent that those ranked ahead of him should. 

5. Two Phil's   

Patricia's Hope and Phillip Sagan/Larry Rivelli

Hard Spun  —Mia Torri , by General Quarters 

Phillip Sagan (KY)

He is a tricky horse to evaluate, having won the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park on Tapeta in fast time (1:49.03), but with the uncertainty of how that synthetic win will transfer to dirt in the Kentucky Derby. He is not a turf horse that figures to bomb on dirt, already being a graded winner on the main track at Churchill Downs. But his two attempts on dirt this year against graded company resulted in a second to Instant Coffee  in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and a third to Angel of Empire in the Risen Star. 

6. Verifying   

Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg, Susan Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Michael Tabor/Brad Cox

Justify  —Diva Delite , by Repent  

Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (KY)

Of the horses that have yet to win a stakes race, he rates highest in the Derby Dozen. Second in the Blue Grass, he turned in a performance that would have been good enough to win many Kentucky Derby preps, running a 102 Equibase Speed Figure in a neck loss to Tapit Trice. He enjoyed a no-trouble, pace-pressing trip in the Blue Grass—an improvement upon his boxed-in fourth-place run in the slop in the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park in his only other stakes outing of 2023.

7. Derma Sotogake 

Hiroyuki Asanuma/Hidetaka Otonashi

Mind Your Biscuits —Amour Poesie , by Neo Universe  

Shadai Farm (JPN)

Last year's opening quarter-mile in :21.78 in the Kentucky Derby was the fastest in race history and ruined the chances of the early leaders. But the complexion of this year's field appears much different, with a moderate or slow pace anticipated with few speed horses among the anticipated 20-horse lineup. Having won up front in the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan, this Japanese horse seems a logical candidate to try to take command early. Though some classy horses have won the UAE Derby, 18 participants from the race have competed in the Kentucky Derby, and not one has hit the board.

8. Kingsbarns 

Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher

Uncle Mo  —Lady Tapit , by Tapit 

Parks Investment Group (KY)

Disarm , second to Kingsbarns last month in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, did not flatter the form with his third-place effort in Saturday's Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Disarm was 4 3/4 lengths behind victorious maiden riser First Mission  in the Lexington, compared to 3 1/2 lengths behind Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby. Perfect in three starts, having won a maiden and allowance race before the Louisiana Derby, Kingsbarns possesses tactical speed, an attribute in a Derby seemingly absent much pace.

9. Confidence Game   

Don't Tell My Wife Stables/Keith Desormeaux

Candy Ride  —Eblouissante , by Bernardini

Summer Wind Equine (KY)

Bringing his colt in fresh into the Kentucky Derby, without a start since winning the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes, trainer Keith Desormeaux looked to ensure his 3-year-old's fitness by giving him a mile workout April 14 at Churchill Downs in 1:38 1/5. Traditionalists are unlikely to care for this colt's racing inactivity, though speed-figure players might view him as less likely to regress off a career-best effort in the Rebel with time between races. Confidence Game is a winner over the Churchill strip, notably defeating eventual Holy Bull Stakes (G3) winner Rocket Can  in an allowance optional claiming route last fall.

10. Mage  

OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH/Gustavo Delgado

Good Magic  —Puca , by Big Brown   

Grandview Equine (KY)

He and Kingsbarns are the least experienced members of the Derby Dozen, having each started just three times. He is greener than that rival, having broken poorly in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Those tardy beginnings cost him positioning and forced wide rallies to catch up. Mage's talent is undeniable. On the second turn of the Florida Derby, it was this colt, and not Forte, who was picking off rivals at the highest rate of speed. His catchup move resulted in a bit of late fatigue, and he settled for second, run down by Forte in the final sixteenth of a mile.

11. Hit Show 

Gary and Mary West/Brad Cox

Candy Ride—Actress , by Tapit 

Gary and Mary West Stables (KY)

His close second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), following his win in the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack, suggests he is the top New York participant pointed to this year's Kentucky Derby. Not since Funny Cide  in 2003 has a Wood participant won the Derby, though the prep has produced 20 winners through Derby history. Last year, Mo Donegal  , the Wood winner, ran fifth when starting from the fence in the Kentucky Derby before later taking the Belmont Stakes (G1), and Wood runner-up Early Voting   captured the Preakness Stakes (G1) after skipping the Derby.

12. Skinner  

C R K Stable/John Shirreffs

Curlin  —Winding Way , by Malibu Moon  

Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings (KY)

As of the morning of April 18, he needs two defections from the probable Derby lineup to gain entry, but it is not out of the ordinary for two horses to bow out, if not more, in the lead-up to the Run for the Roses. Derby upsetter Rich Strike  worked his way into the starting gate last year after being multiple horses down on the alternate list a week out. He started when he drew in as an also-eligible following a scratch from the body of the field. Thrice graded placed and with quality performance figures, late-running Skinner has been compromised a bit by wide trips in his last two starts, though that more commonly occurs with a closer.