Wet Paint Installed as 5-2 Favorite in Kentucky Oaks

For talented 3-year-old fillies such as Wet Paint , a few months can make a big difference.

In January trainer Brad Cox was considering race options at Turfway Park for the daughter of Blame   when he made a last-second decision to ship her to Oaklawn Park for the Martha Washington Stakes. That would prove to be the right call.

After rallying from sixth to win that 1 1/16-mile race by two lengths and then following with clear victories in both the Honeybee Stakes (G3) and Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, Wet Paint is the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) May 5 at Churchill Downs. Wet Paint will start from post 7 in the Kentucky Oaks, which Cox believes should be a good fit in the 1 1/8-mile race that attracted 17 3-year-old fillies, three on the also-eligible list, with the field limited to 14.

"It's a good draw. I think there's going to be some speed in there which should benefit her," said Cox, who twice previously won the Oaks, with Shedaresthedevil  in 2020 and Monomoy Girl  in 2018. "We'll see but ultimately it comes down to the trip for her. She's one that doesn't have much speed and has to close into what we hope will be a hot pace and hopefully she can get there."

In the first call of her three starts this season, Wet Paint has rated in sixth, ninth, and 10th before rallying to victory. Flavien Prat was aboard for all three of those races and will ride Friday.

"I haven't done a lot of strategizing—we just got the post—but the more I look at the race the more speed I'm seeing," Cox said. "I think that will benefit her."

While that trip awaits, Cox most assuredly is confident in Wet Paint's talents.

"She's been unbelievable," Cox said of her progression at Oaklawn. "It's worked out really well. She just continues to get better. Her works have been really solid here at Churchill. I'm excited about giving her another sixteenth of a mile to run."

Cox also will send out the 4-1 second-choice on the morning line in LNJ Foxwoods and Clearsky Farms' Botanical , who enters off four straight victories at Turfway by a combined 23 1/2 lengths. The daughter of Medaglia d'Oro   secured stakes wins in her two most recent starts, taking the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes March 4 and the Bourbonette Oaks March 25.

Bred by Godolphin and Clearsky Farms, Botanical will make her first start on dirt in the Kentucky Oaks. She started on turf twice before shifting to the synthetic surface at Turfway for her four most recent efforts.

Rounding out a trio of fillies entered in the Oaks by Cox is stakes winner The Alys Look , who enters off a third-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) March 25 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

Godolphin, also will have a second homebred in the Kentucky Oaks in grade 2 winner Pretty Mischievous . The daughter of Into Mischief   won the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) in February before finishing second to Southlawn  in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Pretty Mischievous, 10-1 on the morning line, is trained by Brendan Walsh and breaks from post 14. She adds blinkers in Friday's race in a move meant to improve her focus.

The aforementioned Southlawn had a slow start to her career before putting it all together in her two most recent starts. After winning an allowance-level race by eight lengths Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds, she delivered an eye-catching rally in the Fair Grounds Oaks—surging past four rivals, including Pretty Mischievous, for a 3 1/4-length victory.

Her jockey, Reylu Gutierrez, and trainer, Norm Casse, will each be looking for their first grade 1 win when Southlawn breaks from post 4

"We've been very fortunate. She just seems to be doing really well at the right time," Casse said. "I feel like she's doing better now than she was going into the Fair Grounds Oaks. It's one of those things where everything just seems to be clicking at the right time."

Casse said he saw enough talent early on to think that Southlawn could make the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) but breathing issues initially held her back. After throat surgery was performed to address the issue after her 2-year-old season, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile  has been a new horse.

"We really feel like that was the piece that was kind of holding her back. What you're seeing now is what we were seeing all along," said Casse, who also likes the added distance Friday. "I do feel like the mile-and-an-eighth, between the extra sixteenth and the fact that she'll probably be able to relax a bit more going into the first turn, should benefit her." 

Southlawn is the third choice on the morning line at 8-1.

While Southlawn has picked things up for Norm Casse, the trainer's father, Hall of Famer Mark Casse, is hoping that champion Wonder Wheel  can bounce back from the first off-the-board performance of her seven-race career. The daughter of Into Mischief closed out 2022 with victories in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland to lock down the championship.

After opening this season with a second in the Suncoast Stakes in February at Tampa Bay Downs, Wonder Wheel struggled to a sixth-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (G1) April 7 at Keeneland.

Trainer Ken McPeek sent out the 20-1 upset winner of the Ashland in Defining Purpose , who will start from post 11 Friday. The daughter of Cross Traffic   is listed at 12-1 on the morning line.

"It's not ideal but it's still a good spot," McPeek said of the post. "I mean she's a bit of a stalker anyway." 

Attempting to overcome post 13 is AMO Racing USA's Affirmative Lady , who also has put it all together in recent starts. Trained by Graham Motion, the daughter of Arrogate earned her maiden win Feb. 26 at Gulfstream Park and then punched her Kentucky Oaks ticket with a two-length score in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) April 1.

Entries: Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1)

Churchill Downs, Friday, May 05, 2023, Race 11

• Grade I
• 1 1/8m
• Dirt
• $1,250,000
• 3 yo Fillies
• 5:51 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Mimi Kakushi (KY)	Mickael Barzalona	121	Salem bin Ghadayer	20/1
2	2The Alys Look (KY)	Javier Castellano	121	Brad H. Cox	15/1
3	3Gambling Girl (NY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	121	Todd A. Pletcher	15/1
4	4Southlawn (KY)	Reylu Gutierrez	121	Norm W. Casse	8/1
5	5Wonder Wheel (KY)	Joel Rosario	121	Mark E. Casse	12/1
6	6Botanical (KY)	Chris Landeros	121	Brad H. Cox	4/1
7	7Wet Paint (KY)	Flavien Prat	121	Brad H. Cox	5/2
8	8Promiseher America (KY)	Jorge A. Vargas, Jr.	121	Raymond Handal	30/1
9	9And Tell Me Nolies (KY)	Ramon A. Vazquez	121	Peter Miller	15/1
10	10Flying Connection (KY)	Florent Geroux	121	Todd W. Fincher	15/1
11	11Defining Purpose (KY)	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.	121	Kenneth G. McPeek	12/1
12	12Dorth Vader (FL)	Luis Saez	121	Michael Yates	20/1
13	13Affirmative Lady (KY)	John R. Velazquez	121	H. Graham Motion	10/1
14	14Pretty Mischievous (KY)	Tyler Gaffalione	121	Brendan P. Walsh	10/1
15	15Taxed (KY)	Rafael Bejarano	121	Randy L. Morse	20/1
16	16Julia Shining (KY)	Luis Saez	121	Todd A. Pletcher	15/1
17	17Hoosier Philly (KY)	Edgar Morales	121	Thomas M. Amoss	30/1