Forte on Top in Closing Derby Dozen, Shuffling Beneath

1. Forte  

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher

Pedigree: Violence  —Queen Caroline , by Blame   

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

The longtime leader in the Derby Dozen rankings, he maintains the top position for the final Derby Dozen of the season. Last year's juvenile champion, perfect in two starts this year, seemingly drew well for the May 6 Kentucky Derby (G1) by landing post 15 at the May 1 draw. He is more likely to lose a bit of ground from that post but with a trip in the clear, a plus for a horse with a late-running style. He playfully bucked for a couple of strides during an energetic gallop May 2 at Churchill Downs, leaving co-owner Mike Repole, watching from the backstretch, to exclaim, "Look at this guy feeling good!"

Watch: King Discusses Closing Derby Dozen Rankings

2. Angel of Empire  

Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox

Classic Empire  —Armony's Angel , by To Honor and Serve 

Forgotten Land Investment and Black Diamond Equine (PA)

Most of the Derby preps in early April had relatively small margins of victory, leaving his 4 1/4-length triumph in the April 1 Arkansas Derby (G1) as a big-win outlier. Throw in that he also won the Risen Star Stakes (G2), defeating Two Phil's  and other Derby participants, and it is clear this horse seems a major player in the Run for the Roses. Just about every trainer says they think their horse will appreciate the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles, as trainer Brad Cox noted about him, but in Angel of Empire's case, the proof of his staying power is reflected in Cox's spotting of this colt. Five of his six starts have come in two-turn routes, four of which have resulted in victories.

3. Derma Sotogake 

Hiroyuki Asanuma/Hidetaka Otonashi

Mind Your Biscuits —Amour Poesie , by Neo Universe  

Shadai Farm (JPN)

Japan's top Derby hope, he drew toward the outside in post 17. From there, Christophe Lemaire may employ more patient riding tactics than in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai, when he hustled him to the lead from his inside post. UAE Derby runners have been ice cold in this Derby, finishing off the board every time in 18 starts, but this colt's performance in Dubai appeared top-notch. His 118 rating in the latest Longines World's Best Racehorse rankings is the highest of any 3-year-old, though the rating was based on a UAE Derby that had a favorable race flow for frontrunners.

4. Verifying   

Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg, Susan Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Michael Tabor/Brad Cox

Justify  —Diva Delite , by Repent  

Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (KY)

The Blue Grass Stakes (G1) runner-up drew post 2 in the Derby, statistically not a good spot. Since 1987, when Ferdinand won from the inside post, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 0.95% (1-for-105). With this colt having tactical speed, he figures to be hustled away by Tyler Gaffalione, and being up close to a projected moderate pace should leave him with a fighting chance. Verifying needs to avoid a bottled-up inside trip, a journey the colt received when fourth in a sloppy running of the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes (G2). 

5. Tapit Trice  

Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable/Todd Pletcher

Tapit  —Danzatrice , by Dunkirk  

Gainesway Thoroughbreds (KY)

Forte's stablemate has been a head-turner in Derby training this week with powerful gallops around the Churchill Downs oval. He is feeling good leading into the 1 1/4-mile test. The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass winner has the talent and pedigree to be a major Derby force, but he slides slightly in the final rankings due to racing a bit greenly in some of his races. Prone to breaking slowly and disliking kickback, there is an understandable fear he could climb if taking dirt in his face in the Derby, as he did in the Tampa Bay Derby. Expecting him to run well in the Derby but to shine even more in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes (G1) five weeks later.

6. Practical Move  

Leslie Amestoy, Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., and Roger Beasley/Tim Yakteen

Practical Joke  —Ack Naughty , by Afleet Alex  

Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners (KY)

While many riders may be looking to keep their horses in the clear in the Derby, Ramon Vasquez can feel confident in his horse running well if he can work out an inside stalking trip. This colt has slipped up the fence to win his last three starts, all graded stakes, in Southern California. Horse and jockey are 3-for-3 together. Practical Move can break a little flat-footed but he gets himself into the race quickly, which has allowed him to secure favorable running positions in recent starts. One could argue that he is perhaps not as likely to relish 1 1/4 miles as others, as Mandarin Hero  was slowly cutting into his advantage late when Practical Move won by a nose in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1).

7. Two Phil's   

Patricia's Hope and Phillip Sagan/Larry Rivelli

Hard Spun  —Mia Torri , by General Quarters 

Phillip Sagan (KY)

One of the final arrivals to Churchill Downs, he has looked good in his gallops over the track, which followed a :59 five-furlong workout at Hawthorne Race Course April 29 before coming to Kentucky. If he can replicate the speed of his last race, when he won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in fast time over the synthetic track at Turfway Park, he could prove dangerous, even from post 3. He is like his sire Hard Spun   in being a graded winner on dirt and synthetic. Hard Spun ran second in the 2007 Derby to Street Sense   after winning the Lane's End Stakes (which became the Jeff Ruby) at Turfway.

8. Confidence Game   

Don't Tell My Wife Stables/Keith Desormeaux

Candy Ride  —Eblouissante , by Bernardini

Summer Wind Equine (KY)

Trainer Keith Desormeaux elected to bring this horse into Saturday's race fresh, with Confidence Game having 70 days of rest between winning the Rebel and racing in the Derby. No horse has won a modern Derby contested in the spring after more than 42 days off, though Authentic   won the COVID-19 postponed Derby in September 2020 after 49 days away. Interestingly, this colt won over a fast Churchill strip last fall in an allowance optional claimer that produced three Derby starters, the others being Rocket Can  and Hit Show .

9. Skinner  

C R K Stable/John Shirreffs

Curlin  —Winding Way , by Malibu Moon  

Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings (KY)

This 3-year-old is just 1-for-6 but has caught the eye in defeat with thirds in both the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby. In order to close the gap on Practical Move and handle others in the Derby field, he needs to elevate his game somewhat. "I don't know if he needs to cut a corner, not get hung out so much or get between horses somewhere, or start his run a little bit later, but somewhere there has to be something different," trainer John Shirreffs said. The colt is bred for excellence at a route, being by Curlin, and he picks up Santa Anita leading jockey Juan Hernandez, who is riding his first Derby.

10. Kingsbarns 

Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher

Uncle Mo  —Lady Tapit , by Tapit 

Parks Investment Group (KY)

As widely anticipated, Jose Ortiz secured the mount on this promising colt, a winner of all three of his starts, including the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2). A draw in post 6 leaves Ortiz with options on this versatile 3-year-old, who won from just off the pace in his first two outings before wiring the field in the Louisiana Derby. He and Mage are the least seasoned runners in the field. Asked about his concerns heading into the Derby, Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher replied, "It's just a matter of if he has enough experience in a big group like this."

11. Mage  

OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH/Gustavo Delgado

Good Magic  —Puca , by Big Brown   

Grandview Equine (KY)

In just his third start, this talented colt came within a length of beating Forte, and he did so despite a slow start and a wide run around the second turn. If he can put it all together in the Derby, there is no telling what he might do. But given that he also broke slowly when fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), there is an obvious worry that he might do so again. The lengthy process of loading 20 horses into the Kentucky Derby gate, as the massive crowd begins to roar in excitement, can rattle a 3-year-old.

12. Rocket Can 

Frank Fletcher Racing Operations/Bill Mott

Into Mischief  —Tension , by Tapit 

Woodford Thoroughbreds (KY)

One of two horses in the Derby lineup adding blinkers, Rocket Can attempts to bounce back from a somewhat disappointing fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is looking for more focus in making the change of equipment. Looking past the Florida Derby, this horse was second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth and won the Holy Bull (G3)—efforts that ranked him as one of the better 3-year-olds in Florida. That marked the first time in five routes that this horse was not in the exacta.