Tip of the Week: Why Argue With Success?

Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing
One of the more simple rules of thumb in handicapping is never argue with success.
If something works, stick with it.
If a horse is on a roll, why should you hop off the bandwagon?
Willow Hills exemplified that motto in the sixth race at Churchill Downs on May 21.
She came into the race with a perfect 2-for-2 and had not done anything to indicate either win was a fluke.
Her first start came on March 7, 2014 when she posted a half-length victory in a maiden special weight race at Turfway Park.
After that, she was sidelined until April 19, 2015 when she ran in the seventh race at Keeneland.
Considering the 13-month layoff, a switch from a synthetic surface to dirt, a step up to allowance company, a wet track labeled as “good,” and some relatively slow recent workouts, it was understandable that handicappers were skeptical of her and dismissed her at odds of 8-to-1 that day.
She proved her doubters wrong, however, with an easy three-length victory in the seven-furlong allowance test.
In her third career start, a second-level allowance race at Churchill Downs a little more than a month later, the only major knock against Willow Hills was that she might bounce off such a strong effort following a long layoff.
That seemed a legitimate concern, but after her Keeneland victory, she actually worked faster than she did prior to her comeback start. She drilled a bullet workout in 36 3/5 seconds less than a week before the race (albeit she was the fastest of just four horses to work at the distance) and her four-furlong breeze in 49 1/5 seconds was the ninth-fastest of 27. In her final two workouts before her comeback win, she posted slower times that were 19th of 19 and 18th of 23. If there was fatigue following the Keeneland win, she was not showing signs of it in the morning.
Willow Hills’ morning-line odds were attractive at 7-2 and even though she was bet down to a 5-2 favorite, she still paid a nice $7.60 to win for staying undefeated while authoring a six-length victory and illustrating why it’s a mistake to argue with success.
THE LESSON: Don’t argue with success. If a horse is on a roll, stay with it until you can find compelling reasons to look elsewhere for a winner.