Assessing Kentucky Derby Contenders by Final Works

A few weeks before the Kentucky Derby (G1) all eyes are on the work tab, monitoring how the leading points-earners are faring since their last prep races.

One indicator of how sharp a contender is coming into the Derby surfaced from BloodHorse MarketWatch research we started compiling three years ago. Looking at top-three finishers in the Kentucky Derby from 2011-22, we found their final works following their last prep races averaged 12.22 seconds per furlong leading up to the big race. Among the 12 Derby winners in the updated MarketWatch study, nine had average times below 12.22. Among the 38 top three Derby finishers (including the times for Maximum Security   and Medina Spirit , who finished first but were disqualified) 24 had average times at or below 12.22.

As with all Kentucky Derby trends, there are exceptions. Winners with final work averages above 12.22 include I'll Have Another  (12.65), Nyquist   (12.50), and Authentic   (12.31). Maximum Security who was first to the wire in the 2019 Derby but got taken down for interference had the slowest average of 13.72, in keeping with his regular slow works.

In three Derbys since 2011, the top three finishers all had average works below 12.22—2013 with Orb  (12.12), Golden Soul  (12.12), and Revolutionary  (12.13); 2015 with American Pharoah   (11.68), Firing Line   (12.09), and Dortmund  (12.02); and, last year with Rich Strike  (11.96), Epicenter   (12.15), and Zandon  (12.12).

This year's Derby field includes 13 whose average pace is below the 12.22 historical average. As a group, this year's 20 Derby starters have an average works pace of 12.19.

Notable contenders with averages higher than 12.22 is morning-line favorite Forte , who has the highest average in the field at 12.52. The son of Violence   who is riding a five-race winning streak apparently does not need to be razor sharp in the mornings, producing just one bullet work since the start of the year and subsequently capturing the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) by 4 1/2 lengths and the Florida Derby (G1) by a length.

Practical Move  owns the fastest average pace at 11.84. The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner by Practical Joke   produced among the fastest individual works in the past couple of weeks, going four furlongs in :47 April 21 and following with a five-furlong work in :59 3/5 April 28, both at Santa Anita Park.

Reincarnate  and Rocket Can  are the other two Derby contenders with averages below 12.00. Reincarnate, by Good Magic  , has an 11.93 average and comes into the Derby off third-place finishes in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1). Rocket Can, by Into Mischief  , has an 11.94 average and enters the Derby off a second in the Fountain of Youth and fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Reincarnate produced the fastest four-furlong work among Derby contenders April 28 when he went in a bullet :46 2/5 at Santa Anita.

Confidence Game  owns the bullet five-furlong work April 29 at Churchill Downs where the son of Candy Ride   went in :59. He has a pre-Derby works average of 12.20 from five works, the most of anyone in the field since his last Derby prep race was the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes, which he won by a length.