Making the Grade: Evaluating American Pharoah’s Belmont Challengers

Materiality looks like the horse in best position to upset the Belmont Stakes. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire unless otherwise noted)
Making the Grade, which will run through the 2015 Belmont Stakes, focuses on the winners of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the Triple Crown. We’ll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win important races based upon ability, running style, connections (owner, trainer, jockey) and pedigree. 
This week we take a closer look at the expected competition for American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes on June 6, when he will take aim at a spot in the history books as only the 12th Triple Crown winner in U.S. racing history.

Carpe Diem

Ability: The Kentucky Derby marked the first time Carpe Diem did not finish first or second in his career. He was in a perfect spot in fourth early but faded badly and finished 10th. He is capable of a huge performance as his 100 Equibase Speed Figure for a three-length win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes indicates, but he’ll need to show a little more determination in the Belmont Stakes to have a chance. Purchased for $1.6-million at auction as a 2-year-old, Carpe Diem has a pair of Grade 1 wins among three career graded stakes victories.

Carpe DiemChestnut ColtSire (Father): Giant's CausewayDam (Mother): Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s SongOwner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet StablesBreeder: Coffee Pot Stable (Ky.)Trainer: Todd PletcherJockey: John Velazquez

Running Style: Carpe Diem seems to run his best when he is on or very close to the lead and that style has been effective in the Belmont Stakes. However, there should be no shortage of horses looking for that type of position, so he’ll need to break well, get into a rhythm quickly and flash the speed to run early with some very fleet horses.
Pedigree: Carpe Diem is by one of the top sires in North America in Giant’s Causeway. The European Horse of the Year in 2000, Giant’s Causeway has proved proficient at siring top runners on all surfaces and at multiple distances. Giant’s Causeway is the sire of eight champions, including 2014 champion two-year-old filly Take Charge Brandi, as well as 96 graded stakes winners and 169 stakes winners. Carpe Diem’s dam (mother) is Grade 2-placed stakes winner Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled’s Song. Rebridled Dreams won a stakes race at 1 1/16 miles. Carpe Diem is a half-brother (same dam, different sire) to 2010 Breeders’ Futurity victor J. B.’s Thunder.
Outlook: Carpe Diem has an abundance of talent and a strong pedigree, but I don’t like the fact that he hasn’t engaged in a major battle in the stretch and prevailed. Carpe Diem is definitely a threat, but I’ll be playing against him.
Conquest Curlinate

Photo by Four Footed Fotos
Ability: Twice second in graded stakes, Conquest Curlinate just seems to be finding his best stride and figuring this racing thing out. He earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure when second to Madefromlucky in the Peter Pan Stakes, but he would need to take a big step forward to earn his second career win in a race with this much talent.

Conquest CurlinateGray or Roan ColtSire (Father): CurlinDam (Mother): Higher World, by Peaks and ValleysOwner: Conquest StablesBreeder: Charles Hayden (On.)Trainer: Mark CasseJockey: Shaun Bridgmohan

Running Style: Expect Conquest Curlinate to drop well off the pace and come with a big run late. There could be plenty of competition for the early lead and that would certainly help his chances. He’ll need a swift pace to have a legitimate chance.
Pedigree: Conquest Curlinate is from the third crop of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, whose Palace Malice (from his first crop) won the Belmont Stakes in 2013. His dam (mother) was a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/16 miles as a 2-year-old, but you wouldn’t say there is an abundance of class in the first four generations.
Outlook: I didn’t expect to like this colt, who is making his Triple Crown debut in the Belmont and has lost to some lesser competition, but I could see him closing for third or fourth if the pace is fast early.
Frammento

Photo by Melissa Bauer-Herzog
Ability: Frammento finished third in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes but came up empty in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (fourth, beaten by 7 ¼ lengths) and Kentucky Derby (11th). He’s won once in eight career races and three times finished in the top three. His career-best Equibase Speed Figure (99) indicates he will need to take several steps forward to even be competitive in the Belmont Stakes.

FrammentoChestnut ColtSire (Father): MidshipmanDam (Mother): Ginger Bay, by Golden MissileOwner: MossarosaBreeder: Mr. and Mrs. Oliver S. Tait (Ky.)Trainer: Nick ZitoJockey: Mike Smith

Running Style: Like Conquest Curlinate, Frammento almost certainly will drop back off the pace and make one sustained late bid. A quick pace would benefit Frammento and the other closers.
Pedigree: Frammento is from the first crop of 2008 champion 2-year-old Midshipman, by Unbridled’s Song. Midshipman won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles but four of his five career wins came in sprints. Frammento’s dam, Ginger Bay, was a stakes winner at 5 ½ furlongs and is the only stakes winner in the first three generations of his female family although there is some class a little farther back. More speed than stamina makes me question this pedigree for a horse targeting the Belmont Stakes.
Outlook: If Frammento finishes in the top three in this year’s Belmont Stakes, my trifecta tickets will combust. Nick Zito is a Hall of Fame trainer, but other than that I don’t see much here to inspire confidence.
Frosted

Ability: I took a stand against Frosted in the Kentucky Derby and almost paid the price when he closed for fourth. He established a new career-top 107 Equibase Speed Figure in the Derby after earning a 102 for his two-length win in the Wood Memorial Stakes. I will not be taking a stand against him in the Belmont. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin made some changes after a disappointing Fountain of Youth Stakes performance with a new rider, equipment changes and a procedure to correct a breathing issue and the results have been eye opening. Keep in mind, according to Trakus data, he also covered the most ground in the Kentucky Derby.

FrostedGray or Roan ColtSire (Father): TapitDam (Mother): Fast Cookie, by Deputy MinisterOwner: Godolphin RacingBreeder: Darley (Ky.)Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlinJockey: Joel Rosario

Running Style: Frosted was 15th — 13 ¾ lengths back — with a half-mile to run in the Kentucky Derby, but I would expect him to be much closer in the Belmont. Frosted is not a horse devoid of speed and earned his first career win from just off the pace. I’d expect him to be positioned between the horses pressing the pace and the closers and start accelerating on the sweeping far turn of Belmont’s 1 ½-mile track.
Pedigree: Frosted is by 2014 leading sire Tapit, the 2004 Wood Memorial Stakes winner who has developed into the best sire in the United States with champions Untapable, Stardom Bound and Hansen as well as 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist among his top runners to date. The bottom half of Frosted’s pedigree also is outstanding. His dam (mother) is graded stakes winner Fast Cookie, who won the Grade 2, 1 1/16-mile Cotillion Stakes in 2003 and earned $557,480 in four years on the racetrack. Frosted’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags, was a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles while winning 10 of 21 starts and banking $631,190. In addition to Fast Cookie, Fleet Lady also is the dam of 2008 champion 2-year-old male Midshipman.
Outlook: From a performance and pedigree perspective, you could make a case that Frosted is the most likely Belmont Stakes winner not named American Pharoah. I expect him to run a big one on June 6 off five weeks rest. If American Pharoah regresses at all in his third start in five weeks and fifth race in 12 weeks, Frosted will have an opportunity to capitalize.
Keen Ice

Ability: Keen Ice passed some tiring rivals to finish seventh, beaten by 8 ¾ lengths, in the Kentucky Derby. He earned a new career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure in the Derby and did encounter some traffic trouble, but Keen Ice has won only one of eight starts with a pair of third-place finishes. He’s been beaten by 6 ¾ lengths or more in five of six graded stakes.

Keen IceBay ColtSire (Father): CurlinDam (Mother): Medomak, by Awesome AgainOwner: Donegal RacingBreeder: Glencrest Farm (Ky.)Trainer: Dale RomansJockey: Kent Desormeaux

Running Style: Keen Ice is a deep closer who will drop back and settled into stride and then use all of his energy for a sustained run near the end of the race. There are a few of those in this field who could benefit from an expected fast pace.
Pedigree: Like Conquest Curlinate, Keen Ice is from the third crop of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. Early results indicate Curlin is passing along ability and stamina to his progeny. Keen Ice is out of the unraced Awesome Again mare Medowmak, who is a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to Grade 1-placed 2009 Salvator Mile Handicap winner Coal Play. There is additional class as you dig deeper in this pedigree, anchored by fourth dam (maternal great-great grandmother) Chic Shirine, who won the 1987 Ashland Stakes and is a full-sister to champion Queena.
Outlook: I can’t see Keen Ice winning the Belmont Stakes. He’s just not fast enough. Could he clunk up for third? Maybe, but there are others closers I prefer.
Madefromlucky

Ability: Madefromlucky’s Peter Pan Stakes win on the main track at Belmont Park indicated he is a 3-year-old on the rise. It also showed he was capable of producing a career-best effort on the surface on which the Belmont Stakes will be contested. The 106 Equibase Speed Figure puts him within striking range of American Pharoah, should the Kentucky Derby winner regress at all in the Belmont. Madefromlucky very likely would need some regression from American Pharoah, having finished nine lengths behind that familiar foe in the Arkansas Derby and 6 ¼ length behind him in the Rebel Stakes.

MadefromluckyChestnut ColtSire (Father): Lookin At LuckyDam (Mother): Home From Oz, by PulpitOwner: Cheyenne Stables and Mac NicholBreeder: RMF Thoroughbreds (Ky.)Trainer: Todd PletcherJockey: TBD

Running Style: Madefromlucky has raced within three lengths of the pace in five of his last six races with the lone exception being the Arkansas Derby. Expect Madefromlucky to rate in third or fourth early in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes and stay within a few lengths of the lead.
Pedigree: Madefromlucky is from the first crop of five-time Grade 1 winner Lookin At Lucky, who won the 2010 Preakness Stakes for Bob Baffert (trainer of American Pharoah) en route to champion 3-year-old male honors. Madefromlucky is one of two graded stakes winners from six winners sired by Lookin At Lucky from his first crop. The colt is out of the unraced Pulpit mare Home From Oz, a full-sister (same sire [father], same dam [mother]) to outstanding sire Tapit, the leading general sire of 2014 and the top commercial sire on the market. Tapit stands for $300,000 at Gainesway. Madefromlucky’s grandam, Tap Your Heels, by Unbridled, was a stakes winner at two and a very close sibling to champion sprinter and sire Rubiano. This also is the family of 2009 Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird and top sire Relaunch.
Outlook: Madefromlucky should be positioned between the early speed and deep closers. He’s headed in the right direction and could be ideally positioned to get a jump on the closers if a taxing pace develops. He’s definitely worth a second look.
Materiality

Ability: Materiality was 13 ½ lengths back in 17th after a terrible start in the Kentucky Derby but closed eagerly to finish sixth with the fastest final furlong of any of the runners in the race, according to Trakus data. The 101 Equibase Speed Figure was a step back from the 115 he posted in winning the Florida Derby, but he had excuses and he is the only horse in here who has consistently been as fast as American Pharoah. The Belmont Stakes will be only his fifth career race, and from purely a talent perspective he’d have to rank right behind American Pharoah.

MaterialityBay ColtSire (Father): Afleet AlexDam (Mother): Wildwood Flower, by LangfuhrOwner: Alto RacingBreeder: John D. Gunther (Ky.)Trainer: Todd PletcherJockey: Javier Castellano

Running Style: Materiality was on or very near the lead in his first three races, all victories, before a bad start doomed his chances in the Kentucky Derby and forced him to take a ton of dirt in the face as a mass of horseflesh engulfed him for his spot leaving post three in the starting gate. He’ll be able to carve out a much better trip in the Belmont Stakes and I expect a much improved performance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him parked on American Pharoah’s flank throughout as he’s one of the few with the cruising speed to run with the champ.
Pedigree: Materiality is from the sixth crop of 2005 Preakness-Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex whose Belmont final quarter-mile in :24.50 was, at the time, the fastest since Arts and Letters in 1969. As a sire, Afleet Alex has passed along stamina and occasionally the push-button acceleration he was known for. Texas Red, for example, showed incredible acceleration in rallying from last to first to win last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Materiality is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to Grade 2 winner My Miss Sophia, who finished second in last year’s Kentucky Oaks. His dam, Wildwood Flower, by Langfuhr, was a stakes winner sprinting who placed in graded stakes at seven furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Wildwood Flower is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner and sire Eye of the Tiger.
Outlook: Materiality is probably the only horse in this field capable of beating American Pharoah if the dual classic winner runs his “A” race. The lack of seasoning is a concern for the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, but Materiality has a high cruising speed and some pedigree power. If not Pharoah, then Materiality.
Mubtaahij

Ability: I didn’t like Mubtaahij’s chances in the Kentucky Derby because of the trip from Dubai to the U.S., a change in feed and acclimation concerns. But that should be behind him now and what we are left with is a true wild card. He did not show in the Kentucky Derby the push-button acceleration that led four wins in five starts in Dubai, including an eight-length runaway in United Arab Emirates Derby. The Equibase Speed Figure of 98 was OK, especially if you think he has room to improve in the hands of one of the world’s finest trainers. He has two stakes wins at 1 3/16 miles.

MubtaahijBay ColtSire (Father): DubawiDam (Mother): Pennegale, by PennekampOwner: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al MaktoumBreeder: Dunmore Stud (Ire.)Trainer: Mike de KockJockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Running Style: Trainer Mike de Kock said after the Derby that Mubtaahij doesn’t possess the cruising speed to stay close to U.S. pacesetters, so the stalk and pounce tactics employed Dubai are no longer in play. It’s fair to question whether he can be as effective dropping back and making that big late run in the Belmont Stakes if there is a swift pace.
Pedigree: When I dove into Mubtaahij’s pedigree before the Kentucky Derby, I expected to have some concerns about surface but instead came away more concerned with stamina. Dubawi is an outstanding European sire who hails from the very-U.S. and very-dirt Mr. Prospector sire line. He provides a big dose of class and some stamina (average winning distance of about 1 1/16 miles). The bottom half of this pedigree also presented plenty of class. Mubtaahij is one of six winners from as many starters out of the Pennekamp mare Pennegale, whose three stakes winners to date also include Group 1 winner and European champion Lily of the Valley and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Calbuco. English Guineas winner Pennekamp was a multiple Group 1 winner at up to a mile and provides more class than stamina as a broodmare sire. Mubtaahij’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Gale Warning, won her only start as a 2-year-old in a sprint and his third dam (maternal great-grandmother), Gay Apparel, won a pair of stakes sprinting at Woodbine.
Outlook: If you’re willing to draw a line through the Kentucky Derby and chalk it up to the tough Dubai trip, Mubtaahij is definitely eligible to improve. For me, there are still plenty of questions about the quality of opposition he faced in Dubai, his ability to adapt to U.S.-style racing (not dirt) and whether he can be effective at 1 ½ miles.
Tale of Verve

Ability: Count me in the group that did not expect much from Tale of Verve in the Preakness Stakes, but he came through with a huge race in the slop and earned a runner-up finish in a Triple Crown race. The 101 Equibase Speed Figure he earned for finishing seven lengths behind American Pharoah was a new 15-point career top and a 20-point jump from the 81 figure he earned for his maiden win on April 23 at Keeneland. His resume got a big boost in the Preakness, but Tale of Verve still has seven lengths of ground to make up on American Pharoah to have a shot in the Belmont. It’s hard to imagine he could make another huge jump on three weeks rest.

Tale of VerveBay ColtSire (Father): Tale of EkatiDam (Mother): Verve, by UnbridledOwner: Charles E. FipkeBreeder: Charles Fipke (Ky.)Trainer: Dallas StewartJockey: Gary Stevens

Running Style: Tale of Verve is another deep closer in a field that seems to feature plenty of horses who prefer to make one big, late run. Pace will be a big factor for all of the closers. The faster the better.
Pedigree: Tale of Verve is from the first crop of 2008 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Tale of Ekati, who finished fourth that year in the Kentucky Derby and sixth in the Belmont Stakes. Tale of Verve is out of the Unbridled mare Verve, a half-sister to Zoftig, a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/16 miles who also finished second in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes. Zoftig produced Zo Impressive, a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/16 miles, and Zaftig, a Grade 1 winner at one mile. The family is anchored by fifth dam (maternal great-great-great grandmother), Continue, a Grade 1 producer with five stakes winners to her credit and the grandam of champions Swale and Forty Niner.
Outlook: Tale of Verve’s pedigree almost brought me back around a little bit to him, but it just feels like too big of a jump to have a realistic chance to win. But if he runs the same type of race he ran in the Preakness, another classic placing is not out of the question.
War Story

Ability: War Story was a Triple Crown buzz horse in the winter when he posted back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Lecomte Stakes and Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, earning a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure for the latter. He’s been headed the wrong way since then with a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby and a distant 16th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby on May 2. He had never been off the board (out of the top three) in five previous races and the Derby is huge challenge with a big field, tons of traffic and 150,000 screaming fans. His next graded stakes win will be his first and War Story would need to take a giant step forward to win a Triple Crown race.

War StoryChestnut geldingSire (Father): Northern AfleetDam (Mother): Belle Watling, by PulpitOwner: Looch Racing Stables, Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. DunnBreeder: Jack Swain III (Ky.)Trainer: Tom AmossJockey: Colby Hernandez

Running Style: Part owner Ron Paolucci (Looch Racing Stables) told Daily Racing Form that War Story will be gunned to the lead and put pressure on American Pharoah, which is a big change in tactics for a horse who has never been closer than third at the first call in any of his races. In that race when he was close up – his second start in an allowance race – War Story won by 2 ¾ lengths. But he was tracking a leisurely pace in that race, which doesn’t figure to be the case in the Belmont Stakes. The 1 ½-mile “Test of the Champion” is a tough spot to try setting the pace for the first time.
Pedigree: War Story is from the 13th crop of Northern Afleet, whose best runners to date are 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex and champion sprinter Amazombie. He is out of the Pulpit mare Belle Watling, a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to multiple stakes winner and stakes producer Yoursmineours. Third dam (maternal great grandmother) Honest and True was a stakes winner who finished third in the 1980 Kentucky Oaks and went on to a nice second career as a broodmare, producing 1987 champion 2-year-old filly Epitome, the dam of three stakes winners.
Outlook: It would be tough to endorse War Story for the Belmont Stakes regardless of tactics, but it’s impossible to see him factoring if his connections are going to send him out to go toe to toe with American Pharoah.

Previous Making the Grades

Competitive Edge
American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Daredevil
Texas Red
Ocho Ocho Ocho
El Kabeir
Leave the Light On
Nasa
Dortmund
Calculator
International Star
Upstart
Ocean Knight
Far From Over
Metaboss
Far Right
Materiality
Firing Line
Frosted
Mubtaahij
Danzig Moon
American Pharoah
Divining Rod
Madefromlucky