2-Year-Olds Market Showing Uneven Returns

The 2-year-olds in training sales season for 2023 is poised to wrap up with an overall average at or slightly above last year, depending on the results from the Ocala Breeders' Sales June 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale being held June 13-15 and the inaugural Fasig-Tipton Midlantic June 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale June 28.

If the larger OBS June sale produces results comparable to last year, then the overall juvenile sales average could settle at around $99,000, which is 1.7% higher than the overall average of 2022.

An analysis of the market by decile, however, shows this year's growth was not uniform. The average prices for seven of the 10 deciles (subsets of sales prices in 10% increments) are lower compared with equivalent deciles of 2022. The deciles compiled for this analysis include the OBS March, OBS Spring, Texas Thoroughbred Association April, and the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May 2-Year-Olds in Training sales for both 2023 and 2022.The 2022 averages do include results from the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale, which was put on hiatus this year.

Most interesting is a softening seen in the top decile, which includes horses that sold for $300,000 or more. The average price of $516,235 for this tier through June 1 is down 3% from the equivalent average of 2022. Last year's top decile did get a boost from a top price of $3.55 million compared to this year's top price of $2.2 million. These seven-figure horses have a big influence on the average. Twelve horses sold for $1 million or more prior to June 1 in 2022, and 54 horses sold for $500,000 or more. This year, nine horses sold for $1 million or more as of June 1 and 60 sold for $500,000 or more.

This year's second decile is showing the most growth, with a $234,157 average that is tracking 5.4% higher than the equivalent decile of 2022 at this point in the year. While the low end of this decile's price range remains at $175,000, the high end ticked up to $300,000. This decile includes 10 horses that sold for this price.

The third decile average is tracking a bit higher as well, up 2.6% to date to $146,849. Similar to the second decile, the low-end price held steady at $120,000, but the high end is up to $180,000 compared to this decile's high end of $175,000 a year ago.

The remaining deciles, with the exception of the seventh decile, which is essentially flat with a 1.1% increase in average, all are showing declines ranging from 1.6% to 22%. The bottom three deciles of the market, which include horses selling for $35,000 and less, have predictably taken the biggest hits. The average for the bottom decile has dropped to $9,163 from $11,749 a year ago. Four consignors, one at OBS March and three at the TTA April sale were willing to let a horse sell for $1,000.