Belmont Stats: Can Pharoah’s Reign End Triple Crown Drought?
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American Pharoah races for the Triple Crown in the June 6 Belmont Stakes. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire unless otherwise noted)
This year’s Belmont Stakes marks the second consecutive year racing fans have the excitement of a potential Triple Crown on the line, and the anticipation couldn’t be much greater. Like California Chrome, American Pharoah has a home base in California and enters the Belmont looking for his seventh consecutive win under jockey Victor Espinoza, after dominant prep-race performances that set him up for a pair of classic victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
But unlike last year’s Horse of the Year, 2-year-old champion American Pharoah has only lost one race in his career, is trained by a Hall of Famer in Bob Baffert and hails from a fashionable pedigree. Are these ingredients that will help American Pharoah ace the Test of the Champion and capture the first Triple Crown since 1978? Let’s take a look at some stats to try and figure it out.
The last six Triple Crown winners also were named champion as 2-year-old. That list includes Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Citation, Count Fleet and Whirlaway. In fact, all but one 2-year-old champ that has entered the Belmont with a chance at a Triple Crown went on to capture it. The exception? Spectacular Bid, who many believed was a lock to become the fourth Triple Crown winner of the 1970s but an errant safety pin reportedly cost him the race in 1979. A 6-for-7 shot of winning is one that many people would take.
American Pharoah’s trainer Bob Baffert was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2009 and has to date trained the winners of 2,562 races (as of May 27, 2015), but only one of those races was the Belmont Stakes. He has entered nine horses, including three (Silver Charm, 1997; Real Quiet, 1998; War Emblem, 2002) with a shot at the Triple Crown, and only Point Given was able to complete the 1 ½ miles faster than his competition. Baffert also has a trio of second-place finishes: Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Paynter (2012).
Jockey Victor Espinoza has a similar success rate in the Belmont. We all know he lost last year aboard California Chrome with a Triple Crown on the line, and he did the same in 2002 with War Emblem. Espinoza also lost his other two Belmont Stakes attempts, with Sacred Light in 2006 and AP Valentine in 2001. Although they had a 2-for-2 record of winning the Preakness after a Kentucky Derby win, as a team Baffert and Espinoza have an 0-for-2 record in the Belmont.
ESPINOZA AND BAFFERT AFTER THE PREAKNESS
Thirty-four horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and a legendary list of 11 have also captured the third. But the percentage of horses that complete the sweep has decreased greatly since Affirmed’s 1978 Triple Crown. Until that time there had been 21 horses to win the first two legs, 19 of whom ran in the Belmont. Eleven of 19 won the Belmont, giving a Triple Crown hopeful a 58 percent of winning the series. But since that time 12 horses have tried the Belmont (I’ll Have Another didn’t run in 2012) with Triple Crown aspirations, and all of them failed.
TRIPLE CROWN WINNERS AND THE BELMONT
Horse (Year)
Field Size
New Shooters (Percent rivals)
Post Position
Total Horses Defeated in Series
Sir Barton (1919)
3
1 (50%)
8
24
Gallant Fox (1930)
4
2 (33%)
1
27
Omaha (1935)
5
3 (75%)
6
28
War Admiral (1937)
7
3 (50%)
1
32
Whirlaway (1941)
4
2 (67%)
1
20
Count Fleet (1943)
3
2 (100%)
2
14
Assault (1946)
7
3 (50%)
5
31
Citation (1948)
8
4 (57%)
4
15
Secretariat (1973)
5
1 (25%)
3
21
Seattle Slew (1977)
8
3 (43%)
8
29
Affirmed (1978)
5
1 (25%)
6
20
The highest number of rivals a Triple Crown winner faced in the Belmont? Only seven, with an average field of 5.4 in Triple Crown years. The race’s overall average is 7.5, and the typical field size of the last 20 years is 10.4, right in line with American Pharoah’s nine expected challengers. That number would bring his total Triple Crown foes to 33, more than any Triple Crown winner. War Admiral defeated the most opponents in the series after facing 32 in 1937.
Perhaps the greatest challenge for a modern Thoroughbred looking for a Triple Crown title is time. The Triple Crown is spaced over five weeks and, for many reasons, three races in that timeframe is a tall task for today’s racehorses. Not only must they battle fatigue, Triple Crown hopefuls also must defeat competitors that are significantly fresher. Each year, the race attracts “new shooters” that haven’t run in either of the first two legs, plus several competitors that sat out one of them.
This year, American Pharoah is expected to be the only horse to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Only seven Belmont winners in the last 25 years also ran in first two jewels, a 28 percent success rate, and none since Afleet Alex in 2005. Afleet Alex is also the only Belmont winner since 2001 to have run in the Preakness.
AFLEET ALEX WINS THE 2005 BELMONT
Photo by HorsePhotos
While tired horses flounder over a track nicknamed “Big Sandy,” new shooters relish it, with nine of the last 25 Belmont winners having run in neither the Derby nor Preakness. That list includes last year’s winner Tonalist plus five of the last seven Belmont victors. This year’s probable new shooters are Conquest Curlinate and Madefromlucky, with the rest of the field having competed in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness.
So will American Pharoah’s reign end the Triple Crown drought, or will the Belmont once again prove too tough a test? We all look forward to finding out on June 6.
BONUS: Check out the post position table below for more stats to consider.
Post Position
Most Recent Winner
Wins/Starts
Win Percent
Last Year’s Result
1
Empire Maker (2003)
23/109
21.1%
Medal Count, 3rd place
2
Tabasco Cat (1994)
11/109
10.1%
California Chrome, 4th place
3
Union Rags (2012)
15/107
14%
Matterhorn, 8th place
4
Summer Bird (2009)
10/101
9.9%
Commanding Curve, 9th place
5
Da’ Tara (2008)
14/93
15.1%
Ride On Curlin, 11th place
6
Lemon Drop Kid (1999)
7/88
8%
Matuszak, 10th place
7
Drosselmeyer (2010)
13/75
17.3%
Samraat, 6th place
8
Jazil (2006)
6/65
9.2%
Commissioner, 2nd place
9
Afleet Alex (2005)
4/50
8.%
Wicked Strong, 4th place
10
Thunder Gulch (1995)
2/34
5.9%
General a Rod, 8th place
11
Tonalist (2014)
3/25
12%
Tonalist, 1st place
12
Palace Malice (2013)
1/10
10%
N/A
13
N/A
0/6
0%
N/A
14
N/A
0/3
0%
N/A