Does History Await American Pharoah in Belmont Stakes?

American Pharoah's jockey Victor Espinoza celebrates in the Kentucky Derby winner's circle. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Following his one length victory against 17 other horses in the Kentucky Derby, American Pharoah faced 10 fewer horses when winning the Preakness Stakes two weeks later and dispatched them rather easily by seven lengths. With three weeks of rest, it’s on to the 147th running of the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes Presented by DraftKings and a date with history as American Pharoah attempts to win the Triple Crown, which has not been swept in 37 years.
Seven opponents were entered to play spoiler, including five horses who ran in the Derby but did not run in the Preakness. Leading that group is Derby fourth-place finisher Frosted, one of three who closed from far back in the last half-mile but rallied too late to have an impact in the outcome. Materiality and Keen Ice, sixth and seventh, respectively, are two more who passed 10 horses or more in the Derby and who have a chance in a race that has taken its toll on many an aspiring champion. Mubtaahij finished eighth in the Derby while Frammento ended up 11th. Tale of Verve rallied for second in the Preakness as the second-longest shot in the race at 28.50-to-1 and hopes to be passing most, if not all, once again in the Belmont. Madefromlucky won the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park four weeks ago and will try to repeat what Tonalist did last year when winning the Peter Pan then spoiling California Chrome’s bid for the Triple Crown in the Belmont.
American Pharoah appears to have an edge in the Belmont Stakes, perhaps more so than in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. That edge comes in the pace department.  Except for Materiality, none of the other seven runners has shown a desire to lead early in a race. In the Derby, American Pharoah raced in third position until there was a quarter-mile to run then started to draw off to win by one length at the finish line. In the Preakness, American Pharoah took the lead from the start and played a game of cat and mouse with his opponents, letting them believe he was slowing down a bit after three-quarters of a mile (when his lead diminished from 2 1/2 lengths to 1 1/2 lengths) before accelerating to draw off by seven lengths. In the Belmont Stakes, if another horse tries to run with American Pharoah in the early stages, he can back off the pacesetter and rally as he did in the Derby, and if allowed to lead all by himself he could have more than enough energy left in the late stages to hold off any challengers. Going for his seventh victory in a row while attempting to win the Triple Crown, American Pharoah has earned back-to-back 111 Equibase Speed Figures that are better than any figure any horse in the field has earned, except the 115 Materiality earned winning the Florida Derby, and as such he appears to be the strongest hope for a Triple Crown winner in a long time.
WILL PHAROAH BE CROWNED?

Tale of Verve was a horse I thought absolutely would be second or third in the Preakness, not because he was the second best horse but because it appeared horses trying to stay close to American Pharoah in the early stages would be susceptible to being passed by a horse like him who saved all of his energy for the last quarter-mile of the race. He rewarded bettors with a similar viewpoint in the exacta as the horse with the second-highest odds in the field. In the Belmont, the same kind of thing may happen. Improving from an 81 speed figure when winning in April to a 101 figure in the Preakness, Tale of Verve can take another step forward in the Belmont. With veteran jockey Gary Stevens riding for the first time and with a superb five-eighths of a mile workout at Belmont Park coming into the race, Tale of Verve is the choice to be the runner-up once more. On the other hand, if another horse and jockey decide to take on American Pharoah in the early stages and that causes a fast and/or contested early pace, Tale of Verve might just pass them all for the upset win.
Frosted was his own worst enemy in the early stages of the Derby. He was a little hard for jockey Joel Rosario to control, but when he began to rally with a half-mile to run he put in a substantial kick, ending up a neck behind third-place finisher Dortmund at the finish line. With room to improve off a career-best 107 speed figure from his Derby effort and with a sharp half-mile workout at Belmont Park coming into the race, it is possible Frosted could be a lot closer up than he was in the Derby and more like when he won the Wood Memorial Stakes prior to that by rallying from fourth with a quarter of a mile to run. If that’s the case, Frosted is another who could potentially post the upset if American Pharoah is not up to the task.
Materiality was impressive winning the Florida Derby in March with a career-best 115 figure, but in the Kentucky Derby could only manage sixth, regressing to a 101 speed figure. Although he did rally from 17th to sixth in the last quarter-mile, the fact that Materiality had only run three times previous to the Derby and hadn't run in a big field of stakes-quality horses was very likely a factor. One of two in the Belmont field trained by North American leading trainer Todd Pletcher (the other is Madefromlucky), Materiality has a chance to return to the top form shown in March, but in my opinion his lack of racing against top company compared with most of the others could be a factor in him earning only a minor award once more.
Madefromlucky tries to earn the Peter Pan-Belmont Stakes double, a feat accomplished by Tonalist last year. In the Peter Pan, Madefromlucky earned a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure, but in a field of five. In the Peter Pan, Madefromlucky gained the lead with about an eighth of a mile to go without the kind of acceleration shown by some of the other entrants in the race. It was similar to his effort two races before that when second for the entire last eighth of a mile behind American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes in March. A repeat of either of those efforts might be good for a top-three finish but most likely isn’t good enough to win the Belmont.
The rest of the field (with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures): Frammento (11th in the Derby with a 95 figure and with a 99 career-best figure), Keen Ice (99 career-best figure when seventh in the Derby) and Mubtaahij (98 in the Derby) round out the field.
My Selections:
American Pharoah
Tale of Verve
Frosted
$1.5 million Belmont StakesSaturday, June 6, Belmont Park, 6:50 p.m. ET1 1/2 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsTV COVERAGE: 4:30-7 p.m. ET on NBC 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Mubtaahij

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Mike de Kock

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
 

10-1

2

Tale of Verve

Gary Stevens

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke
 

15-1

3

Madefromlucky

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol
 

12-1

4

Frammento

Mike Smith

Nick Zito

Mossarosa
 

30-1

5

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables
 

3-5

6

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing
 

5-1

7

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing
 

20-1

8

Materiality

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Alto Racing
 

6-1