The Wynn’s Avello Talks American Pharoah, Betting the Belmont

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas, is a man who can pick a winner.
As the Wynn’s wizard of odds for all sporting and entertainment events, he has predicted the winner of football, baseball and basketball matchups and contests as diverse as the Miss America Pageant, the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show and many reality TV shows. In 2014, he correctly predicted the winner of 22 of 24 Oscar categories. Avello selected seven “Dancing with the Stars” winners before they ever danced a step. He predicts the Grammys for Rolling Stone and the longevity of celebrity marriages for US magazine.
Good news for racing fans hoping for the first Triple Crown since 1978, Avello has diligently studied this group of 3-year-olds since September, and he, too, has American Pharoah as the worthy favorite for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.
“If Pharoah doesn’t win it this year, I don’t know what that says about Triple Crown winners moving forward,” Avello said. “He is a very talented, good-looking horse. His workouts leading up to Saturday have been outstanding.”
AMERICAN PHAROAH'S FINAL WORKOUT AT CHURCHILL

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Avello feels American Pharoah has a slight advantage over last year’s Triple Crown hopeful California Chrome because of the additional experience of his connections.
“This will be [jockey Victor] Espinoza’s third try for a Triple Crown. Last year, maybe he miscalculated just a bit. When you get to do it a few times maybe you get to work it out,” Avello said before moving on to Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. “Baffert’s been there before, too.
“But that doesn’t mean it’s easy. It’s a long race and a different race than they will ever run in their lives, especially for a horse having to run three races in five weeks.”
Avello thinks two horses are particularly dangerous to Pharoah’s chances: Materiality and Frosted.
“Formulating a game plan for the Belmont is difficult since the race is so long. It’s a chess game for the first mile. All the riders are trying to get their horses in the right position without using too much horse,” Avello said. “Materiality is the only horse I think who could challenge for the lead early on.”
With the possibility of history being made, Avello anticipates the Wynn should experience an approximate 35% increase in handle.
“Belmont Park always has a great card this day. Even if there’s not a possibility of a Triple Crown, it’s a great day of racing,” Avello said. “But when you have that possibility, that brings the day to a new level and brings more people into our establishment.”
Vegas offers bets horseplayers can’t get at the track. A popular option is the prop “Will American Pharoah win the Triple Crown?”
The takeout for this wager is less than that of a traditional win bet at the track.
“If you want to bet Pharaoh to win, you’re going to get the best possible price in Vegas,” Avello said. “I haven’t seen any six-figure bets on this prop yet, but I’ve seen plenty of $25,000 to $30,000 bets.”
Another wager Las Vegas offers that gamblers can’t get at the track are matchup bets. A gambler can bet on who will finish first between two individual horses. The Wynn has combinations like Frosted against American Pharoah and Frammento against Keen Ice.
Avello was the first person to put up a matchup bet like those above in a Las Vegas casino, and the Belmont Stakes is the birthday of wager. He offered it for the first time in 1989 between Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. The matchup bets have been popular and widely copied ever since.
SUNDAY SILENCE AND EASY GOER IN 1989 PREAKNESS

Photo by Horsephotos.com
Another bet Avello put up at the Wynn concerns the payouts of the race: Will the total payouts of the Belmont’s win, place and show mutual tickets wind up over or under $30.59?
“If Pharoah wins, that’s an under. If he runs second, it’ll be questionable then. If he runs third, then it will be over. That’s the way the prop was made,” Avello said.
Avello has tips for all horseplayers in any location.
“In a big race like this there will be plenty of money in the pool. There will be some bridge jumpers out there on this one. A lot of money will be bet on Pharoah to show. I can’t see him not showing unless something happens to him,” Avello said. “But if you like another horse and Pharoah runs out of the money, then the payout could be huge.”
Horse racing was Avello’s gateway into the industry. His mother and father regularly took him to Saratoga Race Course from the time he was 5 years old, and then they would watch harness racing at night. He has worked in sports books for 28 years.
“I still love horse racing as much as I ever have. I still bet it. During the summer, I meet buddies back home and go to the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. I go to Del Mar and Santa Anita once or twice each year,” Avello said. “I don’t go to track as much as I used to because I’m very involved in my business, but I still love it.
“I love pari-mutuel pool betting. The concept is brilliant. Maybe the takeout is a bit too high and it could be done better, but I like how the rest of the money is distributed to the people at the track,” Avello continued. “I just love how you handicap a race. I still get excited about the big races, the Grade 1s on Saturdays. The whole two minutes of a race — I just love the way the game is structured.”
WILL PHAROAH BE CROWNED?