Team ABR Belmont Analysis and Selections

American Pharoah goes for the Triple Crown in Saturday's Belmont Stakes. (Photos by NYRA/Susie Raisher unless otherwise noted)
The final leg of the Triple Crown will take place Saturday, June 6 at Belmont Park. American Pharoah, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, will attempt to become the 12th horse to sweep the Triple Crown with a victory in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.
Will we all witness history for the first time in 37 years, or will there be an upset?
The TeamABR brand ambassadors have been providing race selections and betting analysis throughout the spring, so we’ve compiled all of the ambassadors’ selections for the Belmont plus some additional strategy below.
Ciara Austin
#5 American Pharoah: There's no denying American Pharoah's incredible athleticism. Undefeated as a 3-year-old, the colt has captured the horse racing community's hearts as he gracefully won the 2015 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, and now will attempt to take the Triple Crown title this Saturday in the Belmont. Sure to go off as the heavy favorite, I hope that this is American Pharoah's race to win!
#3 Madefromlucky: I believe Madefromlucky is a very strong contender. He is coming off of a win in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 9, and I think the experience on Belmont's track could work to his advantage. Also, American Pharoah and Madefromlucky are no strangers, they've shared the track twice earlier this year, in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, both at Oaklawn Park.
#6 Frosted: I could definitely see Frosted being a potential upsetter in the Belmont. With morning-line odds of 5-1 in the Belmont, the Tapit colt came in fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and I think he has enough speed to finish in the money here. I wouldn't leave this Wood Memorial winner out of your bets.
Strategy: $10 trifecta: 5 with 3,6 with 3,6 = $20
MADEFROMLUCKY

Dan Tordjman
#6 Frosted: A Fresh horse with the pedigree to run all day. He rallied powerfully to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby. With fewer horses to navigate around, I envision him getting up just in time on Saturday and catching American Pharoah in the final sixteenth. #5 American Pharoah: Going for the reverse-jinx here, hoping that if I pick him to lose, he'll actually win. The horse is a beauty and there's really no knock on him. All anyone could say is that four grueling Grade 1 tests in eight weeks might be too much for any horse, let alone a developing 3-year-old. There could be truth to that but this one does seem special. #8 Materiality: Another one who has the pedigree to get the distance. A son of 2005 Belmont winner Afleet Alex, out of a Langfuhr mare who has already produced Grade 1 winner My Miss Sophia, Materiality had plenty of excuses following a sixth-place finish in the Derby. I think this is a three-horse race, and Materiality is certainly in the mix.
Strategy: Betting the Belmont on a budget is going to be tricky since I'm having a hard time envisioning American Pharoah not finishing first or second. One option is to try to use Pharoah in a trifecta with Frosted and all horses in the third spot. You could also get even more creative and back that up by using “all” in the first spot (hoping for a longshot) over Frosted and Pharoah in the second and third positions. Essentially, your tickets would look as follows: 
$1 trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with ALL ($14 total) and/or $1 trifecta: ALL with 5,6 with 5,6 ($14 total)
Mike Johnson
#5 American Pharoah: Trainer Bob Baffert has preached keeping Pharoah healthy and happy since his Preakness victory. All indicators suggest he’s achieved that goal. He’s the most talented horse in the field and it seems like his adjustment to "Big Sandy" is all that stands between horse racing’s latest rock star and immortality. I think we see history made on Saturday.
#8 Materiality: I think this race shapes up well for him, and Pletcher didn’t point him here for no good reason. He sits just off the pace but doesn’t quite have the extra gear to run Pharoah down in the stretch. There’s no shame in second to a Triple Crown champion!
#1 Mubtaahij: His effort in the Derby was underwhelming, but I think an extra month stateside has served him well. I expect his late kick to click and we’ll see him hit the board.
Strategy: $3 exacta box: 1,5,8 = $18
MATERIALITY

Victoria Garofalo
#5 American Pharoah: The only knock against Pharoah is the four Grade 1 races (all wins) that he's undertaken in the past eight weeks versus the downtime most of his competitors have had since running in the Kentucky Derby. He's done nothing wrong, looks healthy and happy heading into the Belmont and has already defied some significant stats (like outrunning his pedigree). In an incredible crop of 3-year-olds, he's the one I'm rooting for to cross the finish line first. Plus, this New York weather has been wonky, and if it rains he'll relish the mud. #6 Frosted: As one of the only horses to make up ground on the top three Kentucky Derby finishers, Frosted will be ridden by last year's Triple Crown-spoiling jockey Joel Rosario. He'll need a quick early pace to soften the leaders up for his stretch run and should be right there the whole race. Not to mention he has a second-place finish over "Big Sandy," and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin knows how to win a Belmont Stakes (see Jazil, 2006). #8 Materiality: Materiality is the "x" factor for me. After getting sandwiched at the start of the Kentucky Derby, the previously undefeated colt showed heart and determination to rally from far back to be a respectable sixth. In his impressive win earlier this year in the Florida Derby, he threw the best speed figure of any 3-year-old this year, including American Pharoah. Resting at his home track, Belmont, after skipping the Preakness, America's top trainer Todd Pletcher has Materially sitting on a big race, and either way he will challenge Pharoah early, making sure his path to history will not be an easy one.
Betting strategy: Triple Crown Trifecta: $10 trifecta: 5 with 6,8 with 6,8 = $20
FROSTED

Vince Mathews
#6 Frosted: He put in a good performance after I picked him to win the Kentucky Derby, and I have been looking forward to betting him back in the Belmont Stakes. Both his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, and his jockey, Joel Rosario, already have Belmont Stakes victories on their résumés.
#5 American Pharoah: I have no knocks on this horse and could very easily see him go wire to wire on Saturday en route to horse racing immortality. However, no horse has won the Triple Crown since 1978, and I simply can’t take 3-to-5 odds that American Pharoah will be the one to break that streak.
#8 Materiality: He was completely taken out of his game early in the Kentucky Derby, where he was 13th early in the race after being much closer to the pace in his previous races. He should be able to find himself in a more comfortable running position in the Belmont Stakes, and if he performs like he did in the Florida Derby, he could be good enough to win on Saturday.
Strategy: $15 exacta: 6 with 5 ($15)
$5 exacta: 6 with 8 ($5)
Total $20
MUBTAAHIJ

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Jose Contreras
#5 American Pharoah: He looked stronger in the Preakness, and it’s tough to imagine him throwing a clunker given his record coming into this race. He’s facing a small field and his post position seems to be ideal. I think it’s time we get another Triple Crown winner.
#1 Mubtaahij: I liked him in the Kentucky Derby, but he was a victim of the trip given the big field. Now he’s gotten some time off to recover from that experience, and I think he will move forward in his second start in the United States. This distance might allow him to show that impressive turn of foot we saw in the United Arab Emirates Derby.
#3 Madefromlucky: He’s faced American Pharoah twice before and his best finish against him was a second in the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. After finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, he posted a good local win in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park. I think local experience on this track will benefit him.
Strategy: $10 exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($20)
$1.5 million Belmont StakesSaturday, June 6, Belmont Park, 6:50 p.m. ET1 1/2 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsTV COVERAGE: 4:30-7 p.m. ET on NBC 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Mubtaahij

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Mike de Kock

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum 

10-1

2

Tale of Verve

Gary Stevens

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke 

15-1

3

Madefromlucky

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol 

12-1

4

Frammento

Mike Smith

Nick Zito

Mossarosa 

30-1

5

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables 

3-5

6

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing 

5-1

7

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing 

20-1

8

Materiality

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Alto Racing

6-1