Veteran Turf Writers Ehalt, Pedulla Analyze the Belmont

American Pharoah (above left) and Mubtaahij (above right) both will start in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park. (Both photos by NYRA)
Bob Ehalt and Tom Pedulla became fast friends when they met on their first day at Fordham Preparatory School in the Bronx, N.Y., in 1971. Bob soon introduced Tom to the joys of Thoroughbred racing.
They have endured some rough moments at the track, with Tom taking exception when Bob repeatedly smacks him on the back with a program as one of their horses launches an all-out drive. Much to Tom’s chagrin and the amusement of onlookers, Bob has been known to call for security as he proceeds to cash a $27 trifecta.
They have owned a number of horses together and often can be found carrying on at the track as if they never left their teenage years.
Here is their take on the 147th Belmont Stakes:
PEDULLA: Bob, I want to be wrong on this. I know how much we both want to cover a Triple Crown winner and, hey, we are not getting any younger. I am as gray as can be and, to be delicate, your hair is thinning. I tried to make the case for American Pharoah and cannot build one that holds up, not as he makes his fourth start since the Arkansas Derby on April 11.
The pick from your chalk-loving friend is Mubtaahij. As we both know, selecting the Belmont winner is about finding horses that will get the mile and a half. This Irish-bred with a name we struggle to pronounce ran 1 3/16 miles in his two races leading to the Kentucky Derby. He earned his way into the run for the roses with an eight-length cakewalk in the United Arab Emirates Derby. And his effort at Churchill Downs was not bad for a horse who shipped from Dubai.
He’s had five weeks to acclimate to the U.S. now. Mike de Kock, an accomplished trainer from South Africa, did not keep the horse here for no reason. I also like his selection of Irad Ortiz Jr., a jockey who knows Belmont Park well. While many others in the field will be exhausted in the late going, Mubtaahij will be flying.
MUBTAAHIJ WINNING UAE DERBY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
EHALT: You’ve got to give me a minute here. I need to pick my jaw up off the floor. You’re telling me, you, Count Chalk-ula, are taking a 10-to-1 shot that was no factor in the Derby? Good luck, my man.
I’m staying put with American Pharoah, who has already beaten everyone in the field and will do it again in this 147th Belmont. Yeah, the Triple Crown is extremely difficult, but it’s not an impossible dream. The memories may be old, but we saw it happen in the 1970s, and I’m confident this horse is cut from the mold of those great Triple Crown champions of the past. When a 2-year-old champ is still atop the leaderboard heading into the Belmont Stakes, you have something special, and history will be made on Saturday.
AMERICAN PHAROAH WINNING DERBY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
PEDULLA: I have immense respect for American Pharoah and his trainer, Bob Baffert. How could you not? I see Pharoah out front much of the way but unable to escape with an easy lead due to pressure from Materiality, the only other source of speed that I can find. While American Pharoah is better than Materiality, he is not bred for the task at hand and his enormous workload will catch up to him. Sadly, he will be second best.
EHALT: Frosted was my Derby pick because of the value I thought he offered, but even with five weeks rest I can’t elevate him above the bottom of the exacta. If there’s a threat to American Pharoah, though, it’s him.
PEDULLA: For a horse that encountered a world of trouble in the Derby, Materiality sure was impressive in the Derby. He was really rolling at the end, a finish that bodes well for another strong showing here. With a smart ride from John Velazquez, he will be no worse than third.
EHALT: Word to the wise, don’t be fooled by Materiality. Running late in a race after you trot in the early stages is no great feat. If he breaks well, he’ll run with American Pharoah early and will have nothing left at the finish. Stealing the longshot thunder from you, I’m taking Keen Ice for third. He was starting to move right behind Frosted in the Derby, then was shut off and had nowhere to go for about a furlong as he finished seventh. His plodding style does not fit the profile of a Belmont winner, but he should be included in the trifecta.
PEDULLA: Since I anticipate a modest pace at best, I am tossing deep closers Tale of Verve, the Preakness runner-up; and Frammento, a sentimental choice since he’s trained by Nick Zito, someone we both admire. Frosted, the Wood Memorial winner, comes off a solid Derby and should emerge from mid-pack to take fourth.
EHALT: I’m thick-headed but not dumb. Last year, Tonalist headed into the Triple Crown off a victory in the Peter Pan and won the Belmont, so why not give Madefromlucky a whirl? At 12-to-1, he’s much better value than Todd Pletcher’s other starter, Materiality, and he can beef up an exotic ticket that will start with an odds-on favorite at the top of it.
$1.5 million Belmont StakesSaturday, June 6, Belmont Park, 6:50 p.m. ET1 1/2 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsTV COVERAGE: 4:30-7 p.m. ET on NBC 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Mubtaahij

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Mike de Kock

Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
 

10-1

2

Tale of Verve

Gary Stevens

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke
 

15-1

3

Madefromlucky

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol
 

12-1

4

Frammento

Mike Smith

Nick Zito

Mossarosa
 

30-1

5

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables
 

3-5

6

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing
 

5-1

7

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing
 

20-1

8

Materiality

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Alto Racing
 

6-1