Inside the Trip: Trakus Preview of Belmont Stakes Card

Undefeated Competitve Edge runs in Saturday's Woody Stephens Stakes, one of nine graded stakes on a stellar Belmont day card. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
With a Triple Crown on the line, this year’s Belmont Stakes Racing Festival offers the potential of a thrilling afternoon of racing. American Pharoah races for his place in history as the potential 12th winner of the Triple Crown, but he has plenty to overcome to get there. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the data for the Belmont Stakes and the rest of Saturday’s brilliant card.
Graded stakes action begins with the Woody Stevens Stakes for 3-year-olds, and Competitive Edge is the deserving favorite. In his last race, the Pat Day Mile Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard, the Todd Pletcher trainee drew off to an easy 4 ½-length victory. His final quarter of 24.24 seconds was a full 0.54 seconds quicker than the next-fastest time of 24.78, shared by both Gimme Da Lute and The Truth Or Else. While Competitive Edge seems like a standout in this year’s edition of the Woody Stephens, he also has to contest March, who was last seen winning the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct. March, who ran the second-quickest final furlong in that race, was almost caught at the finish line by a fast-closing Lord Nelson, who ran 21 feet (about 2 ½ lengths) more than March, in addition to the fastest final furlong.  Lord Nelson could muster no better than fourth to Competitive Edge when he ran next in the Pat Day Mile.

Following the Woody Stevens is the Jaipur Invitational Stakes, a six-furlong sprint on the Widener turf course. Power Alert (AUS) was the winner of the Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes on the Kentucky Oaks undercard after a ground-saving trip in his most recent start. Gail Cox trainee Something Extra ran third in that race after a wider trip, covering 19 feet more than the winner, the equivalent of 2 ¼ lengths. He finished only 1 ½ lengths behind the winner. Brickyard Kitten also returns after a wide trip in allowance company at Belmont, where he lost by a neck to J to the Croft. The Kitten’s Joy gelding ran the fastest final furlong of 11.21 seconds, about a half-second quicker than the winner’s time of 11.68 seconds. While it may be a step up in class for him, Waterford Stable’s Summation Time put in a big effort in his most recent race when winning an allowance at Gulfstream after a wide trip, covering 21 feet (2 ½ lengths) and 25 feet (3 lengths) more than the second- and third-place finishers, respectively.
The top four finishers of the Ruffian Stakes, which was run at Belmont on May 19, were entered in Saturday’s Ogden Phipps Stakes. Wedding Toast was an impressive victor of that race, covering the widest trip and still recording a four-length win. She ran 16, 19, and 30 feet more than runner-up Princess Violet, third-place finisher House Rules and fourth-place finisher Shayjolie, respectively, the equivalent of 2, 2 ¼, and 3 ½ lengths.  House Rules’ final furlong of 12.48 seconds was almost a half second better than the next quickest, Princess Violet’s 12.97. The rest of the field is made up by Rosalind, who scored a strong victory in the Sheepshead Bay Stakes in her most recent start, and 2014 champion 3-year-old filly Untapable, who is the heavy favorite after an easy score in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn on April 10.  

The Brooklyn Invitational Stakes is the first of two races run at 1 ½ miles on the day. Entering from the Excelsior Stakes at Aqueduct in April are Effinex, Red Rifle, Micromanage and Turco Bravo (Chi). Effinex won that contest by three-quarters of a length while completing his final quarter in 25.08 seconds, a bit quicker than Red Rifle, who held on gamely for second in 25.34 seconds after leading early. Both Micromanage in fourth and Turco Bravo in fifth were more than 11 lengths behind the winner. Last year’s Travers Stakes winner V. E. Day is another contender for Jimmy Jerkens after a sneaky-good performance in the Fort Marcy Stakes on the turf at Belmont on May 2. While he could only muster sixth, V. E. Day went very wide in the far turn and came home with the second-quickest final quarter of 22.89 seconds, second only to Manhattan Stakes-bound, multiple Grade 1 winner Big Blue Kitten’s time of 22.40 seconds. V. E. Day also covered 25 feet more than the winner in that race, the equivalent of about three lengths, and lost by only 3 ½ lengths.
The Grade 1 Acorn Stakes drew a wide-open field of 12. Lukewarm favorite Shook Up returns after her second to Lovely Maria in the Kentucky Oaks. Shook Up was the recipient of a ground-saving trip that day, covering 45 feet, or about 5 ¼ lengths, less than the winner. Also coming out of the Kentucky Oaks are speedster Condo Commando and late closer Oceanwave. Oceanwave’s seventh in that race belies a great effort, as she put in the quickest final quarter in the race in 25.71 seconds. Her final quarter was a full 0.66 seconds quicker than the winner’s 26.37 seconds. Shook Up was a bit slower at 26.49 seconds.

Graham Motion’s lightly raced Miss Ella enters the Acorn off a solid win in the Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland, where she covered 22 feet (2 ½ lengths) more than the second-place finisher while drawing away to a two-length victory with the fastest final quarter. Wonder Gal has not run since her fourth in the Gazelle Stakes to Condo Commando, but she sure had an excuse that day. With an extremely wide trip, she covered 51 feet more than the Rudy Rodriguez-trained Condo Commando, the equivalent of six lengths, and lost by only 6 ¼ lengths. With an inside draw in post two, she should be able to conserve ground and run a better race. Curalina is a filly who enters stakes company for the first time, with her last effort being an utter demolition of allowance company at Churchill in May. Swinging wide, Curalina covered 45, 44, and 25 feet more than the next three finishers, the equivalent of about 5 ¼, 5 ¼, and  three lengths. Her final furlong of 12.54 seconds was 0.43 seconds quicker than runner-up Purr’s time of 12.97 seconds. 
The Just a Game Stakes brings together a talented field of turf stars. Christophe Clement’s Discreet Marq has five wins from eight starts on the Belmont turf, and her last outing, a victory in the Beaugay Stakes, was achieved on the grass at Belmont. However, she escaped with an easy lead that day, and it was second-place Photo Call (Ire) who ran a more impressive race from a data perspective. Closing wide, Photo Call lost by three-quarters of a length while covering 30 feet more than the winner, or about 3 ½ lengths. Her final quarter of 22.58 seconds was not quite enough to catch front-running Discreet Marq, who got the job done in 22.12 seconds. Ball Dancing is another with early speed, and her victory in the Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland on April 11 was a solid effort. Her final quarter of 23.68 seconds kicked her clear from runner-up Filimbi, who was 0.39 seconds slower at 24.07 seconds.
This years’ renewal of the Met Mile should be one of the most exciting races of 2015. Private Zone, Pants On Fire, and Bayern all enter out of the Churchill Downs Stakes, in which Private Zone was sent to the lead and drew away to a 4 ¼-length victory. Pants On Fire rallied for third with the quickest final quarter of the race in 25.68 seconds, while Private Zone did it in 25.91 seconds. They were the only two to breach the 26-second mark. Bayern came up empty that day, but there’s no reason to think that the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner won’t rebound on Saturday. 

Another speedster in the race is Tamarkuz, who makes his first start in the United States for new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after a dominant season in Dubai, capped by his victory in the Godolphin Mile. In Tamarkuz’s past three wins, all group stakes at a mile, he has drawn the inside rail. The only race in which he covered more ground than any of his opponents was the Godolphin Mile, in which Sloane Avenue almost caught him at the finish line after covering eight meters more than the winner, the equivalent of three lengths. However this was after a troubled, slow start for Tamarkuz.

Undefeated at Belmont Park, last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist enters off a win in the Westchester Stakes. While he only faced three opponents, Tonalist’s final quarter of 24.23 seconds blew the rest of the field out of the water, with second-place finisher Confrontation 0.88 seconds slower in 25.11 seconds. Finally, there are a couple of deep closers in the race. Despite his fifth in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill, Honor Code managed to run the fastest final quarter-mile of 23.08 seconds, which was 0.44 seconds quicker than winner Protonico. This was with pedestrian fractions up front, and the composition of this race suggests that there will be a lot more speed for him to close into. Another closer who offers value is Kobe’s Back, last seen winning the Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland on April 4. Notoriously slow to break, Kobe’s Back settled in at the tail of the field but unleashed a strong kick heading home, getting his final quarter in 23.42 seconds, while runner-up C. Zee had the next-quickest time of 24.11 seconds.

Twilight Eclipse, winner of the Man o’ War Stakes at Belmont on May 9, returns in the Manhattan Stakes. In the Man o’ War, Twilight Eclipse covered 24 feet more than War Dancer, or about 2 ¾ lengths,  and 22 feet more than Hyper,  or about 2 ½ lengths, while War Dancer was second by a neck and Hyper landed third, 3 ¼ lengths behind the victor, respectively. Finnegans Wake comes into the race after securing his first Grade 1 victory in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes on the Derby undercard. He had the second-widest trip in that race, covering 51 feet more than second past the finish line Sky Captain, who was disqualified and placed fourth for interference. Slumber was the only horse with a wider trip, running 21 feet, or 2 ½ lengths, more than Finnegans Wake, and a great 72 feet more than Sky Captain, which equates to 8 ½ lengths. Slumber was fifth, only 2 ¼ lengths behind at the finish line. Jack Milton was third in that race by a neck, but was placed second after the disqualification.

The grand finale on a brilliant card of racing is the Belmont Stakes, in which American Pharoah will attempt to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. His win in the Kentucky Derby was with the second-widest trip of the race, with only fourth-placed Frosted covering more ground. American Pharaoh covered 29 feet, about 3 ½ lengths, more than Firing Line in second, and 69 feet, or 8 lengths, more than third-placed Dortmund. Frosted had similar figures, running 7 feet farther than the dual classic winner. Also returning from a five-week break following the Derby are Mubtaahij, Frammento, Keen Ice, and Materiality. Materiality had a rough break and fell behind early in the Derby, while in his previous three starts he was right on the pace. Despite this, the colt by 2005 Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex rallied from 17th to sixth with the fastest final furlong of 12.81 seconds, a full 1.10 seconds quicker than the winner’s 13.91 seconds. Donegal Racing’s Keen Ice had the second fastest final furlong of 13.01 seconds.

In the Preakness Stakes, American Pharoah got away with an easy lead and pedestrian fractions. Tale of Verve managed to close into this extremely slow pace despite a wide run and being as many as 17 lengths off the pace at one point during the race.
Another fresh face of the field is Madefromlucky, who won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont in May. American Pharoah previously beat him in both the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. In the Peter Pan, which eventual Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist won last year, Madefromlucky had the widest trip but still managed the victory, which flatters American Pharoah.

Now let’s hope that the horses all come home safe, and best of luck to all the bettors this weekend!