Belmont: Could American Pharoah Be The One?

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert knows how quickly fortunes can turn in horse racing—how a split-second twist of fate can derail months of effort and planning.

He has gone into his fourth Triple Crown bid with the same mix of gut-wrenching concern for his runner's well-being and an outward show of acceptance—what will be, will be—but as American Pharoah trains flawlessly toward the June 6 Belmont Stakes Presented by DraftKings (gr. I), it is tempting to wonder if this horse might finally be the one.

"I just downplay it, because I know things can turn—they can turn in an instant," Baffert said the morning of June 4, two days before his colt's big run. "But so far, what I've seen is very, very positive."

Novak: American Pharoah Completes Belmont Prep

With his floating stride and quiet demeanor, Zayat Stable's plain bay homebred has towered above this season's 3-year-old competitors and arrives at Belmont Park on a six-race win streak by a combined margin of 30 1/4 lengths. His score in the Xpressbet.com Preakness Stakes (gr. I) last time out May 16 left rivals sputtering in his wake, and although he had to work to win the May 2 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) by a length one start prior, he got the job done. He will attempt to become the first runner since Affirmed in 1978 to win the Triple Crown.

HAMMONDS: Favored American Pharoah Wins Kentucky Derby



LAMARRA: American Pharoah Romps in Preakness Stakes

His connections say American Pharoah is "a happy horse," and while slight anthropomorphizing may occur, those who understand Thoroughbreds agree this one goes about his business with focus and positive energy—ears pricked, alertly observing the world around him.

"Ususally there are hiccups in this game—things going wrong—but look at him in the mornings," owner Ahmed Zayat remarked. "He is full of energy. His coat color, his weight... things that matter, that make a difference. This will be his fourth race in eight weeks. There is wear and tear, but look at him, you don't see it, and that's what you want to be in if you're going to change history and do something that has not been done. Three-year-olds for the first time going a mile and a half—it's a tall order, but he's going in as best as he could."

The vast expanse of Belmont, "Big Sandy" as pundits call it, appears to have been of little concern to the son of Pioneerof the Nile   since his arrival June 2. He's won at five different tracks in his career. What's one more?

"Even though people keep saying, 'Oh, Belmont, mile and a half, different configuration, different post,' I'll tell you what, OK?" Zayat said. "I understand and I realize that. I'm not underestimating that at all. But if you're good, you're good. And the difference between good, great, and greatness, is hopefully what we're going to see tomorrow. Because in order for you to do something that only 11 horses in the history of the game have done, you have to earn it."

PHOTO ESSAY: The American Pharoah Story

Only Charles Fipke's Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve will wheel back from the second leg of the Triple Crown to face American Pharoah, who breaks from post 5 in a field of eight under regular rider Victor Espinoza in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont.

BALAN: American Pharoah Draws Post 5 for Belmont

Waiting in the wings are five contenders who have rested from the Kentucky Derby, while bypassing the Preakness with hopes of a Belmont upset.

First among them is Darley's Frosted, winner of the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial (gr. I) and the only horse who was making up any ground on the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby. The Tapit   colt closed to wind up fourth in that race, 3 1/4 lengths behind American Pharoah.

"We don't mind a Triple Crown winner, just not this year," said trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who sent Jazil to victory in the Belmont in 2006.

SHULMAN: Frosted Carries Hopes of Sheikh Mohammed

Sixth, seventh, and eighth in the Derby were Alto Racing's Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Materiality, Donegal Racing's Keen Ice, and Essafinaat's Mubtaahij, while Mossarosa Racing's Frammento checked in 11th. Their connections have no illusions of grandeur when it comes to beating American Pharoah on his best day, but a trainer like Nick Zito, who conditions Frammento, is no stranger to the Belmont upset.

"I said the same thing with the other two," said Zito, who spoiled the Triple Crown hopes of Smarty Jones   in 2004 with Birdstone   and of Big Brown   in 2008 with Da' Tara. "If we hit the board—if we're second or something and hit the board—where do I sign? But I also knew both horses had mile-and-a-half pedigrees, just like this horse. At the end of the day, that goes in my favor."

MITCHELL: De Kock Says American Pharoah a 'Super Horse'

The lone runner in the field to have not contested a Triple Crown classic is May 9 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) winner Madefromlucky, who along with Materiality serves as a duo for trainer Todd Pletcher, winner of the 2007 Belmont with the filly Rags to Riches and the 2013 edition with Palace Malice. Both of Pletcher's runners this year are by classic winners, respectively—Lookin at Lucky  , who took the 2010 Preakness, and Afleet Alex  , winner of the Belmont in 2005.

"In Madefromlucky's case, he has a win over the track," Pletcher said. "One of the things we didn't think he was doing particularly well at other tracks was running the turns. And it seems he (handles) the turns the best here at Belmont. The wider configuration—it's basically from the half (mile pole) to the quarter pole, and it's a big sweeping turn in there—he handles. And I think his grinding style suits a mile and a half well."

While Madefromlucky won the Peter Pan from off the pace, Materiality is expected to attempt to take the lead in the Belmont from the speedy American Pharoah.

"We're not going to chase him around there for a mile and a half," Pletcher said. "We're trying to win the race and I think that's the way we have to do it."

According to Zayat, the presence of rested horses or runners who did not also contest both legs of the Triple Crown does not give him pause as American Pharoah bids for history.

"He has to earn it. We're talking about defining greatness," he said.