Tip of the Week: Good News, Bad News
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Horses, like humans, can have good days and bad days.
North of Oswego, a 3-year-old colt, tends to have good days or bad days lately and the trick for handicappers is deciding whether the “good” North of Oswego or “bad” North of Oswego will show up.
In his final race at two, North of Oswego was quite good. He finished a promising second by a head at in a maiden special weight race at Del Mar in late November.
Shipped to Oaklawn Park for his first two starts at three, the “bad” North of Oswego took the track. He lost by 29 ¼ lengths in a maiden special weight race and then finished 22 ¾ lengths behind the winner in a $50,000 maiden claimer.
Dropped into a $16,000 maiden claimer, the “good” North of Oswego resurfaced as he posted a gate-to-wire victory by 2 ¾ lengths at 9-2 odds on April 1.
The next stop for North of Oswego was Churchill Downs, where he raced in a $30,000 claimer – and had another bad day. After leading through the opening quarter-mile, he faded to seventh on a track labeled as good, beaten by 32 ½ lengths at 17-1 odds.
After that, North of Oswego took a big tumble in class as trainer Chris Hartman entered him in a $15,000 claimer on May 24 at Churchill Downs.
His 10-1 morning-line odds indicated the “bad” North of Oswego was on the guest list for the race, yet there were a few promising signs.
For the one, the drastic drop in claiming price was interesting as it returned North of Oswego to a level where he had won against maidens less than two months earlier.
The “good” track for his previous race also gave off hope that the “good” North of Oswego would be on hand. While a good track may not be as wet as a rain-soaked sloppy track, it does have moisture in it and horses often do not care for it. Perhaps on a fast track, North of Oswego would return to top form.
The “good” news was that a fast, dry track was indeed to North of Oswego’s liking. He set the early pace and was passed in mid-stretch but then battled back to win by a neck and pay $29.40 at the mutuel windows.
Guess you could say he let the “good” times roll once again.
THE LESSON: Don’t be surprised to see a horse swing from a good race to a bad one and then back to a good one again. What seems unpredictable, if you look closely enough, is often predictable.