Several Parx Races Could Produce Breeders' Cup Runners

Preceding a busy slate of major prep races in late September and early October leading toward the Nov. 3-4 Breeders' Cup, there are no "Win and You're In" qualifiers scheduled this week, though some races still could produce Breeders' Cup starters.

Top finishers from either the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) or Cotillion Stakes (G1) at Parx Racing may show enough to warrant a try against older horses in a month and a half when Santa Anita Park hosts the Breeders' Cup for a record-extending 11th time. Three-year-old males competing in the Pennsylvania Derby could pursue the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at 1 1/4 miles or the shorter, $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles in the Cotillion could continue onward this fall to race such as the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff at 1 1/8 miles or the $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) at seven furlongs.

Saturday's races at Parx appear likely to be run on a wet track. According to a midday Sept. 21 weather report from the National Weather Service, over an inch of rain is forecast Saturday for Bensalem, Pa., beginning in early morning and continuing through the day.

Last year, Zedan Racing Stables' Taiba   won the Pennsylvania Derby before running third in the Breeders' Cup Classic for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who in 2014 captured both the Pennsylvania Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic with Bayern .

Also in 2022, Pennsylvania Derby third-place finisher Cyberknife   and fourth-place finisher Simplification , respectively, ran second and seventh in the Dirt Mile.

This year, a Pennsylvania Derby horse such as Saudi Crown , for example, might become a Dirt Mile (G1) candidate if he performs well and carries his speed for all or most of Saturday's race. Trainer Brad Cox has not run the FMQ Stables-owned son of Always Dreaming   beyond 1 1/8 miles.

He has run Equibase Speed Figures ranging from 107-109 in three of his four starts.

"He's a good horse. A very good horse," Cox said.

Most in Saturday's race appear to have limitations over the Breeders' Cup Classic's distance of a mile and a quarter, including Scotland  and Reincarnate , two of the other favorites.

The Cotillion, with a $1 million purse just like the Pennsylvania Derby, drew the leader for championship 3-year-old female honors in Godolphin's Pretty Mischievous . A victory Saturday would give the daughter of Into Mischief   four grade 1 wins in 2023, including the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1), the country's most prestigious race for 3-year-old dirt fillies.

"I was looking at her record the other day and it's unbelievable," trainer Brendan Walsh said. "It's a testament to her. Look, you have to have the ammunition, but it is a testament to her. I haven't had too many of them that have been able to keep it that consistent for that long. Generally, you hit some bump, or they'll back up, something. She's won seven of nine and the couple times she got beat she was second or third. It will be nice if we can pull it off again Saturday."

The Brendan Walsh trainee's fastest races have come at distances between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles—suggesting the Distaff would best suit if she proceeds toward the Breeders' Cup.

Society  and Secret Oath —first and third in the Cotillion a year ago—were seventh and fifth, respectively, in the Distaff against older fillies and mares last fall.

Through the years, Untapable  (2014) and Ashado  (2004) were two fillies classy enough to pull off the Cotillion-Distaff double during their 3-year-old seasons.

An undercard race on Saturday, the $300,000 Parx Dirt Mile, also drew a Breeders' Cup-caliber runner in Winchell Thoroughbreds' dual grade 1-winning Gunite . The Parx Dirt Mile seems a means to gauge the Gun Runner   colt's effectiveness in racing a mile around two turns—the conditions under which the Dirt Mile will be run this year, as it was in 2022. The Steve Asmussen trainee weakened to fourth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last year at Keeneland behind Cody's Wish , who is again targeting the Dirt Mile.

A cutback to the six-furlong Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) would appear to be a further option for Gunite if he regresses over Saturday's two turns against ungraded company. Five of his six races this year have been at three-quarters of a mile, resulting in two victories, before he outran reigning champion older male sprinter Elite Power  in the seven-furlong Forego Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course Aug. 26. He also won the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes (G1) there as a 2-year-old.

If Saturday's $250,000 Turf Monster (G3T) at Parx remains on grass, that race may advance a horse like Roses for Debra  toward the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T). Rain could result in the Turf Monster being moved to dirt or, more likely, being run over damp turf.