Noble Bird Eyes Upset in Stephen Foster

Noble Bird enters the Stephen Foster off a close second in the Alysheba Stakes. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The 34th running of the Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap has brought together a field of seven including multiple graded stakes winners Commissioner, Lea, Hoppertunity and Majestic Harbor. Add in recent Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes runner-up (by a head) Noble Bird and it appears we will have a very good race to watch and wager on at Churchill Downs.
Lea has earned nearly $1.9 million in his career including a win in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at the Foster distance. Commissioner enters the race off a pair of wins running 1/16 of a mile further, taking the Grade 3 Skip Away Stakes in March and then the Grade 3 Pimlico Special last month. Hoppertunity won the fall equivalent of the Foster at Churchill Downs when victorious in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap and one start before that won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes so he fits on all counts as a contender. Majestic Harbor (KY) won the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita last June and has won two of his last three races. Cat Burglar and Paganol round out the field. 
An improving pattern of Equibase Speed Figures was the key to tabbing Moonshine Mullin to upset the field in last year's Stephen Foster Handicap and using the same methodology I think Noble Bird can win this year. Noble Bird made his first start of 2015 in February, in a sprint following six months off, indisputably a prep as he had never run in a sprint previously. Following that sixth-place finish, Noble Bird stretched out to two turns and won nicely with a 100 speed figure, improving to a 105 figure winning again in April. Last month in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs, Noble Bird ran the best race of his career when battling head-and-head down the stretch with multiple stakes winner Protonico, getting the lead mid-stretch and losing by a head on the wire. With the 120 figure earned in the Alysheba tied with the best figure likely favorite Lea earned winning the Donn Handicap last year, Noble Bird has every right to repeat or improve off the effort to post the upset win in this year's Stephen Foster Handicap. 
Lea took his shot with some of the best horses in the world in March in the Dubai World Cup. His third-place effort behind winner Prince Bishop and 2014 Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome was no disgrace whatsoever. Prior to that Lea finished second in the Donn Handicap, which he had won the previous year with a career-best 120 figure. His most recent workout, a half-mile that was the best of 69 at the distance on the day, was exceptional for a horse trained by Bill Mott, who normally does not work his horses very fast in the morning. As such, we can assume Lea is ready for his best effort, and that is certainly good enough to win the Foster.
LEA

Commissioner is best known for nearly posting the 28-to-1 upset in last year's Belmont Stakes, missing by a head on the wire to Tonalist and earning a then-career-best 107 speed figure. Following that, Commissioner went to the bench for seven months. He returned to finish third before a poor sixth-place effort in the Donn, in which Lea finished second. Given a short break after that, Commissioner won the Skip Away Stakes with a 108 figure then improved to a 111 figure effort winning the Pimlico Special last month. With more improving to do and with North American leading jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle once more, Commissioner has a fine chance to win his first Grade 1 stakes in this situation. 
Hoppertunity has won four of seven races in his career at a mile or more, including the similar Clark Handicap last fall at Churchill Downs. In the Clark, Hoppertunity ran the best race of his career, earning a 118 figure. Following that up with a win in the San Pasqual Stakes in January (100 figure), Hoppertunity then finished third behind Shared Belief and California Chrome in the San Antonio Invitational, not a disgrace by any means. My only issue with Hoppertunity relative to the three main contenders is that he hasn't raced since February 7, whereas both Commissioner and Noble Bird both raced last month and Lea raced at the end of March. That's a lot of recent form to be giving away to other horses as good as he is and that is the reason he's not among the top contenders in the Foster. 
Cat Burglar (116 best speed figure), Majestic Harbor (108) and Paganol (112) round out the field.
My Selections:Noble BirdLeaCommissioner
Get detailed analysis and selections of all the races at Churchill Downs at Equibase.com.
$500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap
Saturday, Churchill Downs, Race 8, 9:42 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds and older, dirt

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

Owner

ML Odds

1

Commissioner (KY)

Javier Castellano

120

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm

3-1

2

Lea (KY)

Joel Rosario

120

Bill Mott

Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider

7-5

3

Paganol (KY)

Robby Albarado

114

Chris Hartman

James and Ywachetta Driver

20-1

4

Noble Bird (KY)

Shaun Bridgmohan

116

Mark Casse

John Oxley

10-1

5

Hoppertunity (KY)

Mike Smith

121

Bob Baffert

Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman

5-2

6

Majestic Harbor (KY)

Corey Lanerie

115

Paul McGee

Gallant Stables

12-1

7

Cat Burglar (KY)

Victor Espinoza

116

Bob Baffert

Michael Lund Petersen 

8-1