The question before the house in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) Nov. 12 at Kyoto Racecourse: Can last year's winner abruptly return to form and defend her crown, or will one or more of the progressive 3-year-old fillies in the field take another step up to stardom?
Geraldina won the 2,200-meter (about 1 3/8 miles) event last year when it was run on soft turf at Hanshin. The daughter of Maurice , out of the successful and popular mare Gentildonna , then went into a tailspin.
After finishing third in the Arima Kinen (G1) on Christmas Day, she returned in 2023 with four straight off-the-board finishes. Granted, she was facing top company as the winners in those heats included Hong Kong star and multinational group 1 winner Romantic Warrior; Equinox , currently the world's top-rated horse; and eight-time winner Jack d'Or.
Her most recent effort was a sixth in the Sankei Sho All Comers (G2) Sept. 24 at Nakayama, but there are some things to like.
"She ran a little wide in the All Comers last time, but kept running on at the end, so it wasn't a bad race for her," said Geraldina's trainer, Takashi Saito.
Also, Ryan Moore, fresh from a Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) win and a less-successful foray in the Melbourne Cup (G1), takes the reins.
While Geraldina seeks to regain her form, some promising 3-year-olds are nipping at her heels, and their connections say the layout of the Kyoto course might work in their favor. The race was returned to its traditional venue after being staged at Hanshin for three years during a massive renovation of the Kyoto grandstand.
Harper, a Heart's Cry filly, finished fourth in this year's Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas-G1) and second in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks-G1), both times behind blossoming superstar Liberty Island. She then took on older rivals in the Shuka Sho (G1) and acquitted herself well enough to be third, although Liberty Island again was the winner.
"She drew inside in the Shuka Sho and it meant that when she wanted to make a move, she couldn't," said trainer Yasuo Tomomichi. "As a filly with a nice big stride, it became a bit difficult and muddling for her.
"On the outer course this time at Kyoto, the runners should be a bit less bunched together, and it should make for a better race for her," Tomomichi said of Harper.
Brede Weg, a 3-year-old Lord Kanaloa filly, tackles grade 1 company for the first time but performed well enough in her last start, finishing second in the Rose Stakes (G2) behind Masked Diva. Masked Diva won that event in stakes-record time and subsequently finished second in the Shuka Sho.
"She ran a good race last time," trainer Keisuke Miyata said of Brede Weg. "But the winner is very strong, as we saw when she also ran well in the Shuka Sho after that win.
"I think my filly will be well-suited to the outer turf course at Kyoto this time, so I'm looking forward to the race. She's a talented horse with grade 1 ability."
Neither Liberty Island nor Masked Diva contests the QE II, eyeing even bigger goals during the remainder of the year and beyond. Christophe Lemaire is booked to ride Brede Weg and Yuga Kawada is named on Harper.
Only 15 were nominated to the race this year, a small number by Japanese grade 1 standards. While the race is open to international competition, no overseas runners will participate.
Snow Fairy was the last foreign winner, taking the event in 2010 and 2011. Magical Lagoon shipped from Ireland to have a go in 2022 but finished last of 18 and was rerouted to Australia, where she has gone winless in six starts for trainer Chris Waller.