Making Money on a Budget in Turf Handicap

Summer Front, above winning the Fort Lauderdale Stakes, is a top threat in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap on Sunday. (Coglianese Photos/Gulfstream Park)
Any veteran horseplayer will tell you that handicapping the races is far from the toughest part of playing the races - the real challenge is finding a way to bet your horses in a way that maximizes your potential return.
After handicapping the $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, the horse who I think will win the race is very likely to be one of the race favorites, No. 5 Summer Front. That leaves us in a tricky position when it comes to betting this Grade 1 turf race, especially on a smaller budget.
I’ve devised several plans for attacking this race. It will allow you to approach it one way if you’ve got plenty of disposable income and in a different way if, like yours truly, you just have a few bucks to throw down on this race.

Tune in to Fox Sports 1 at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday for coverage of the Donn Handicap and Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. 
Find Fox Sports 1 on your television here.

The Average Joe ($20 Budget)
$1 Exacta Box 5, 3, 7 ($6 Total)
$1 Trifecta Key 5 with 3, 7, 8 with 3, 6, 7, 8 ($8 Total)
$1 Exacta 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 over 5 ($6 Total)
The Don Johnson (A Cool $101)
$30 Win/Place on No. 5 Summer Front ($60 total)
$10 Exacta Box 5, 3 ($20 total) 
$1 Exacta 5 with All ($7 total)
$2 Exacta All with 5 ($14 total)
The Whale ($500 Budget)
$150 Win/Place on No. 5 Summer Front ($300 total)
$10 Exacta Box 3, 5, 7 ($60 total) 
$1 Trifecta Box 1, 3, 5, 7, 8 ($60 total) 
$2 Trifecta Box 3, 5, 6, 7 ($48 total)
$1 Trifecta Key No. 5 over 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 over All ($30 total)
And, here’s how I came up with those numbers...
RACE ANALYSIS
1. Lochte - He’s run extremely well on the Gulfstream Park turf since coming back off a short layoff late last year. He has a nice, stalking style and should enjoy the 1 1/8-mile distance of this race. However, this is a very tough spot for his first stakes try. Calling this a class test would be an understatement and, although he’s looked like a different horse of late, it did take seven races for him to break his maiden (win his first race). The win in an allowance company in his most recent start was nice but he didn’t face anywhere near the level of competition he’ll be racing against here. Give him a small shot — very small.
2. Tetradrachm - One of two Bill Mott trainees (Mott will look to score a late double with Lea in the Donn Handicap), this horse has been just a touch short in his last few. He yielded late to Summer Front, who he’ll face again here, in his most recent start when he set a fairly comfortable pace. He lost by a similar one-length margin in the previous race but he did have some excuses. I’d give the horse a close look but I’m not sure he wants to go this distance. Not impossible, but wouldn’t want play him at too short of a price.
3. Nikki’s Sandcastle - This horse might very well be overlooked in the wagering but he’s super tough and always seems to run an honest race. He’s also hit the board in seven of 10 turf tries at Gulfstream (including three wins) and ran very well in his only attempt at this distance on grass. The appeal with this one is that you know you’re going to get a good price. The drawback though is that he was beaten in his most recent race by two of the horses he faces in this race (Summer Front and Tetradrachm) and he also was well beaten by another (Amira’s Prince) last year. Still, I think he could be dangerous in this spot. Nikki’s Sandcastle put in a good workout last week, has run well in his second start off of the layoff in the past and I think the slight stretch out here will help.
NIKKI'S SANDCASTLE

Photo by Courtney Heeney/Gulfstream Park
4. Charming Kitten - Respect the connections but I’m not in love with the horse in this spot. He’s usually closing from well off the pace and I’m not sure that suits him when considering how friendly the Gulfstream turf has been to early speedsters. Granted, he has done some of his best running at this track but I just don’t think the race sets up for it. Also note that jockey Joel Rosario hops off this horse to take the ride on Imagining, a horse who probably will be on or near the lead.
5. Summer Front - Odds aside, this would be my top pick in here. He hasn’t lost by more than a length and a half in his turf tries in nearly a year (includes three graded stakes wins). He has won seven stakes races overall, clearly likes the turf course at Gulfsream and should appreciate the distance. When I look back on all of his races, I can find excuses for all of his efforts that might seem poor on paper. My only concern would be him sitting too far off of a slow pace, but I’ve got to believe that with the services of jockey Joe Bravo (a turf specialist) and trainer Christophe Clement (20% winning combo), the horse should be in position to fire here.
6. Amira’s Prince - Tough call with this one. No one knows what we’re going to see from this horse after nearly a year off. But fact that Mott trains, in and of itself, makes it hard to not use Amira’s Prince. He’s 3-for-3 at Gulfstream and has won at this distance. However, expecting him to go 1 1/8 miles in this spot, against these horses, in his first race back seems to be asking a bit much. He does show a very steady workout tab leading up to this race, but I’ll probably take a stand against him and look elsewhere for a horse whose form I can be a little more confident in backing.
7. Imagining - For all of the buzz this lovable horse seems to generate, he hadn’t won a graded stakes until his last race at Aqueduct. The 6-year-old Giant’s Causeway horse looked very sharp in that race but he was going considerably longer in that one. Although he was also up against a larger field there, he faces much tougher company in this race. He has a few wire-to-wire scores on his résumé and I have to believe that the plan here is to get him to the lead and hope he can settle in up front without much pace pressure. It could very well happen, and if they let him run loose, he could very well win this race. Interestingly, jockey Rosario will be looking to redeem himself for last year’s Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, in which he was criticized for sending Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom to the lead too early. He’d lose the race to Point of Entry, trained by Shug McGaughey, who trains Imagining. Oh, and you might also be aware of the fact that the McGaughey-Rosario (34% winning combo) have done pretty well in big spots - see last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Orb.
IMAGINING

Photo by Adam Coglianese/NYRA
8. Boisterous - One of two going out for trainer Todd Pletcher (Charming Kitten is the other), this horse really seemed destined for big things last summer. But after winning the Grade 1 Man o’ War, he completely flopped in three consecutive races. You have to believe he’ll be sharper off of the layoff and it’s encouraging to see jockey Javier Castellano (one of Pletcher’s go-to riders) returning for the mount here. He does carry the high weight (119 pounds) here and he hasn’t hit the board in two races at Gulfstream, but those aren’t even the biggest question marks. The real question is, which Boisterous will we see? I think we’ll get something resembling the horse we saw early last summer, but he’ll have to be extremely sharp to get past Summer Front. 
Selections: No. 5 Summer Front - No. 3 Nikki’s Sandcastle - No. 7 Imagining - No. 8 Boisterous