Tuscan Sky Joins Derby Dozen; Sierra Leone Up to Third

1. Dornoch  

Owner/Trainer: West Paces Racing, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables/Danny Gargan

Good Magic  —Puca , by Big Brown   

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Given a short break after winning the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack, he has worked progressively faster in Florida this winter, capped by a half-mile move in :48.80 at Palm Meadows Training Center Feb. 16. That should leave this full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage   with one more breeze before his scheduled return in the March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. The form from the Remsen was flattered Feb. 17 when runner-up Sierra Leone  took a high-class renewal of the Risen Star Stakes (G2).

2. Fierceness 

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher

Pedigree: City of Light  —Nonna Bella , by Stay Thirsty   

Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)

The betting public has cooled on the 2-year-old champion male of 2023, letting the one-time Derby favorite drift to 16-1 odds as the fifth individual choice in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed over the weekend. Making his 3-year-old debut in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park, he underwhelmed by finishing third after a slow start and a wide trip. He has now run brilliantly twice, including in romping in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), but disappointingly on just as many occasions. He has the potential to run quickly, as reflected by his 110 Equibase Speed Figure in the Juvenile last fall. The March 30 Florida Derby (G1) is next.

3. Sierra Leone 

Owner/Trainer: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Brook Smith, and Peter Brant/Chad Brown

Gun Runner  —Heavenly Love , by Malibu Moon

Breeder: Debby M. Oxley (KY)

Late-running horses are typically pace-dependent, but this $2.3 million yearling buy overcame a lack of pace in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Feb. 17, defeating a field that seemed the best of any Derby prep this year. Very few horses would have proven capable of successfully rallying from ninth behind fractions of :24.32 and :49.67, particularly with a horse as talented as Track Phantom  carving out the splits. But this colt got it done, showing improved focus in his first start with blinkers and surging late for a half-length victory, admittedly in a relatively slow time of 1:52.13 over sloppy going. On the strength of that victory, he went off as the individual favorite in this past week's Kentucky Derby Future Wager at 6-1 odds. The April 6 Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland will be his final Derby prep.

4. Locked  

Owner/Trainer: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Walmac Farm/Todd Pletcher

Gun Runner  —Luna Rosa , by Malibu Moon 

Breeder: Rosa Colasanti (KY)

After a setback left him off the work tab for a few weeks, he resumed breezing Feb. 16 at Palm Beach Downs for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, recording a :49.68 half-mile breeze that left his connections encouraged. Pletcher indicated that the Fountain of Youth is his intended next race. Another workout is planned next week, and his connections could easily pivot to a race like the March 9 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) if he needs more time. In light of his missed training, he might return at something short of peak fitness, with his second start of the year perhaps providing the best barometer of his Derby prospects.

5. Track Phantom 

Owner/Trainer: L and N Racing, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom, and Breeze Easy/Steve Asmussen

Quality Road  —Miss Sunset , by Into Mischief   

Breeder: Breeze Easy (KY)

Like Sierra Leone, he has a co-high 55 qualifying points toward the May 4 Run for the Roses, though he is in second place on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard due to having lower non-restricted stakes earnings. Though the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner ran well to be a close second in the Risen Star, the makeup of that race seemed to favor him, and he could not fend off Sierra Leone. With an easy pace and with that rival coming off a layoff and shipping to his home track, that seemed his opportunity to beat him. March 23 Louisiana Derby (G2) is the upcoming target for this speedster.

6. Forever Young 

Owner/Trainer: Susumu Fujita/Yoshito Yahagi

Real Steel —Forever Darling , by Congrats 

Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)

He has garnered attention by capturing three of his starts in Japan, though accessing the quality of those wins against unknown competition is difficult. We should get more of an idea Feb. 24 when the colt races in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby (G3). A couple of talented one-turn American horses are in the anticipated lineup in Book'em Danno  and Bentornato , though with both having distance limitations, neither of them is pointed to the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. If Forever Young can beat them and others over a mile, he will solidify his status within the top half of the Derby Dozen.

7. Timberlake 

Owner/Trainer: WinStar Farm/Brad Cox

Into Mischief  —Pin Up , by Lookin At Lucky  

Breeder: St. Elias Stables (KY)

Winner of last year's Champagne Stakes (G1) in the slop and unraced since a fourth-place finish in the Nov. 3 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park, he gets his 3-year-old season started Feb. 24 when he returns in the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. The 1 1/16-mile Rebel will go a long way toward determining if he is a threat for this year's Derby or more of a middle-distance one-turn type. Without any West Coast invaders for Saturday's Rebel, the race does not appear to have quite the quality of perhaps the last few years, leaving Timberlake as the headline act.

8. Catching Freedom  

Owner/Trainer: Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox

Constitution  —Catch My Drift , by Pioneerof the Nile

Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)

Moving into graded company after winning the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, he ran competitively in the Risen Star, closing from sixth to grab third behind Sierra Leone and Track Phantom. Bidding between rivals down the lane, he was reluctant to switch leads but fought bravely to grab the show from Resilience , the tiring fourth-place finisher, after being placed in tight quarters late in the race. He does not appear to have the sheer brilliance of others in the 'Dozen, but he is honest and seemingly without distance limitations.

9. Mystik Dan 

Owner/Trainer: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III/Kenny McPeek

Goldencents  —Ma'am  by Colonel John  

Breeder: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III (KY)

His eight-length win in the Feb. 3 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn was one of the best performances by a 3-year-old this year and far better than his prior two routes, though with it coming over an off track, one does have to wonder if he handled the slick conditions more than his rivals. He was also glued to the fence for much of the race under a ground-saving ride from Brian Hernandez Jr. That was not this colt's only fast race. He blazed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:03.27 when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs Nov. 12.

10. Tuscan Sky 

Owner/Trainer: Spendthrift Farm/Todd Pletcher

Vino Rosso  —South Andros , by Sky Mesa 

Breeder: Sierra Farm (KY)

After a debut sprint win at Aqueduct Jan. 13, he improved to 2-for-2 in capturing a first-level allowance optional claiming race over a route at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Risen Star Day, defeating the dual stakes-placed Nash , a prior member of the Derby Dozen. Nash had everything his own way up front through the first turn of the 1 1/16-mile race before this colt began to turn up the pressure in what amounted to a match race. Head and head on the second turn and in early stretch, Tuscan Sky powered away late to defeat Nash by two lengths. A graded stakes race looks on deck.

11. Hades 

Owner/Trainer: D. J. Stable and Robert Cotran/Joe Orseno

Awesome Slew  —The Shady Lady , by Quality Road   

Breeder: Ocala Stud, Joseph M. O'Farrell III, David O'Farrell, et al. (FL)

The way the Holy Bull unfolded was to his benefit—he set easy fractions and Fierceness was off slowly and played catchup—but horses with tactical speed make some of their own luck. (Track Phantom is another example.) This gelding deserves credit for defeating the Fierceness and also a useful Holy Bull runner-up in Domestic Product . Combine the Holy Bull with his two other victories in as many starts, including an eight-length allowance victory, and he ranks as one of Florida's best.

12. Honor Marie   

Owner/Trainer: Ribble Farms, Michael Eiserman, Earl Silver, Kenneth Fishbein, Daniel Fishbein/Whit Beckman

Honor Code —Dame Marie , by Smart Strike 

Breeder: Royce Pulliam (KY)

A non-threatening fifth in the Risen Star, passing only tired horses, he clings to the final spot in the Derby Dozen rankings due to what he accomplished last fall in taking the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) over the Churchill Downs strip. Dawdling fractions in the Risen Star did not suit his closing strength, and he ran as if he needed the return start. His two defeats in four starts have now come on sloppy tracks, though he had been a respectable second in the slop last fall at Churchill when beaten by stakes winner Otto the Conqueror .

* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.'s continued ban of Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, led by Nysos  and Muth , are in the Derby Dozen. Nysos would be top-ranked if eligible.