Deterministic's Success No Surprise to Hinkle Farms

In the span of a one-mile run around the Aqueduct Racetrack dirt March 2, 3-year-old Deterministic  was thrust from a relatively unknown maiden winner into the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail spotlight as he rallied for a two-length victory in the Gotham Stakes (G3). However, the horse's potential was no surprise to those who bred and raised him.

"He was such a nice yearling," said Anne Archer Hinkle, who runs Hinkle Farms in Paris, Ky., alongside her father, Tom, and uncle, Henry. "There was something about him. The way that he walked and carried himself, his demeanor—so smart. He was just a superstar."

The buzz was out early on the son of Liam's Map   as he sold for $625,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale to St. Elias Stable, which partnered with Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable for the colt's racing career.

"For his pedigree, he really outsold himself," said Hinkle. "People loved him at the sale. He never stepped a foot out of line. He never had any weird issues come up. He never hurt himself, he always took great care of himself."

Deterministic is out of the Speightstown mare Giulio's Jewel , who Hinkle admits had not been the most impressive producer. The mare passed away while Deterministic was a yearling, which signaled to the Hinkle Farm team that Deterministic might turn into something special.

"We always say that whenever a mare dies or we sell a mare, we know they're gonna end up producing a stakes winner because that's what always happens," Hinkle said.

The strange omen proved true as Deterministic has become a grade 3 winner holding 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points.

Debuting Aug. 12 at Saratoga Race Course in a seven-furlong maiden race, Deterministic flashed his ability while closing from five lengths back to win by a half-length against a field that included future grade 3-placed Informed Patriot .

Video: Saratoga, Race 5, MSW

Unraced since, Deterministic went off as the 7-2 second choice in the Gotham and proved he could overcome the layoff and an off track. Undefeated in two starts for trainer Christophe Clement, the colt has earned $222,750 on his way to being a leading contender for the Run for the Roses.

"This is a really exciting thing for our family," Hinkle said. "(The Kentucky Derby) is always your North Star, you want to breed those top-class, top-quality horses. To have a horse that can even compete in that level is a wonderful thing and a testament to a lot of teamwork across the board."

Hinkle Farms has been a family business for nearly a century. The farm was purchased by Hinkle's great-grandfather, a bluegrass seed farmer who also raised sheep, in 1926. A generation later, her grandfather was in charge and got married while the bluegrass seed-growing industry shifted west. In the 1960s, he bought two mares and began what would turn into a successful breeding and boarding facility, in addition to raising cattle and growing crops.

Tom and Henry "caught the bug" for horses and began growing the operation further. Focusing primarily on growing their broodmare band over the last decade, the farm has bred or raised more than 30 stakes winners. Grade 1 winners Divisidero   and Weep No More  were bred by Hinkle Farms (Weep No More was bred in partnership with Robert Kessinger).

The operation focuses mostly on breeding to sell while potentially keeping a few fillies that would fit into its broodmare band. Hinkle says the team puts a strong focus on allowing a natural early development.

"When horses are foals is such a critical time," Hinkle said. "If any part of their growth is compromised in those first six months, it becomes even more challenging for them to succeed."

Foals at Hinkle Farm spend about 20-22 hours a day outside, coming inside at least once a day to eat, get their feet picked, and be looked over so they gain experience with all the human handling they'll be asked to perform throughout their lives. From there, Hinkle believes it's just a matter of following their growth as a yearling.

"For foals that are born with not the most ideal conformation, you have the most opportunity to work with them in those first few months," Hinkle said.

Natural growth is key to Hinkle Farms, deciding several years ago not to perform any corrective work on their growing foals and yearlings.

"You can fix one problem and create a new set of problems," Hinkle said. "Everybody has seen crooked racehorses who are really fast and perform well. There is more to a horse's ability than how correct they are."

Hinkle described watching yearlings grow as an "emotional roller coaster," her dad always saying you can drive yourself crazy looking at them.

"You can look at them one day and they will look completely different a few days later," she said.

However, patience paid off watching the growth of Deterministic, who as a yearling quickly grew to be Hinkle's favorite on the farm.

"As a foal, he wasn't enormous or overly impressive," Hinkle remembered. "He just continued to improve. The summer of his yearling year, he just really hit his stride.

"That year we had several horses with more impressive pedigrees or who were leggier or more scopey, but there was something about him."

Now that Deterministic has developed into a star racehorse, the reward of the team's hard work paying off is starting to settle in.

"It's so exciting," Hinkle said. "Most people (on the farm) remember him as a foal or a yearling. There's been a lot of excitement over the past several months as he's been working so well. It was really exciting to share in everyone's excitement.

"Everybody on our farm played a part in giving him a solid foundation. It's certainly a team effort."