Fierceness Holds Lead Over Sierra Leone in Derby Dozen

1. Fierceness 

Owner/Trainer: Repole Stable/Todd Pletcher

Pedigree: City of Light  —Nonna Bella , by Stay Thirsty   

Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)

As well as Sierra Leone ran in winning the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, Fierceness remains on top in the Derby Dozen owing to his speed when he runs to his potential. His maiden win last summer and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) score last fall were decisive and swift, and he delivered an equally stellar performance in taking the March 30 Florida Derby (G1) by a record-breaking margin: 13 1/2 lengths. He has alternated producing superior efforts with lackluster ones, a pattern critics believe could point to a Derby bounce from the likely Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite. Conditions or trip may also explain the inconsistency, given Fierceness caught a wet track when a non-factor in the Champagne Stakes (G1) last fall, and he broke poorly and was rushed up when third in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) to begin his season this winter.

2. Sierra Leone 

Owner/Trainer: Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Brook Smith, and Peter Brant/Chad Brown

Gun Runner  —Heavenly Love , by Malibu Moon

Breeder: Debby M. Oxley (KY)

Those who backed him in the Blue Grass had a right to grow concerned when he balked at loading in the gate, delaying the start by a couple of minutes, but once the running started, he uncorked a powerful stretch kick to run down Just a Touch  and win going away by 1 1/2 lengths. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione attributed the gate antics to being the last to load and getting stirred up in front of the large Keeneland crowd. Now a crowd of about 150,000 awaits at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Gate delay notwithstanding, this colt is the real thing with pedigree, looks, performance, and a finishing punch that seemingly makes him a perfect fit for racing 1 1/4 miles. Take note of the quality group he also outran in the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes (G2).

Watch: King Reviews Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial

3. Forever Young 

Owner/Trainer: Susumu Fujita/Yoshito Yahagi

Real Steel —Forever Darling , by Congrats 

Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)

It has been a sound betting practice in the Kentucky Derby through the years to toss the UAE Derby (G2) horses, not only on top but also from the superfecta. Of the UAE Derby's 19 prior starters, not one finished better than fifth. In addition to facing better in Kentucky, rising from a grade 2 to run into a top-level American classic, such horses are disadvantaged by the long travel and acclimation to the United States after previously racing in Dubai. Still, if a 3-year-old is to break this long slump, Forever Young  would seem to be that horse. He is 5-for-5, seemingly well suited to added distance, and coming off a pair of races in the Middle East that generated striking performance figures. Having already flown from Japan to the Middle East, it would also appear that long travel is something he can handle.

4. Catching Freedom  

Owner/Trainer: Albaugh Family Stables/Brad Cox

Constitution  —Catch My Drift , by Pioneerof the Nile

Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)

Though the Louisiana Derby (G2) has produced only five Derby winners, compared to 25 for the Florida Derby and 23 for the Blue Grass, it has become an influential prep of late. Country House  , fourth in the 2019 Louisiana Derby, and Mandaloun  , sixth in the 2021 Louisiana Derby, captured the Kentucky Derby, both by disqualification. Louisiana Derby winners Epicenter   and Hot Rod Charlie  also ran well in the Run for the Roses to place in 2022 and 2021, respectively. As for this colt, he finished well to take the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, and being one of the first to arrive at Churchill Downs, and with experience there (including a maiden win beneath the Twin Spires), he may have a home-track edge over many of his competitors.

5. Just a Touch   

Owner/Trainer: Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing, and Marc Detampel/Brad Cox

Justify  —Touching Beauty , by Tapit   

Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)

He heads to the Derby without a stakes victory, having been runner-up in the Gotham Stakes (G3) and Blue Grass after a debut win at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. It is difficult to run much better in defeat than he did in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass. He pushed splits of :46.48 and 1:10.83—fractions more than a second and a half faster than the average Blue Grass splits from 2021-23. After taking command in the stretch, he yielded and was caught by Sierra Leone. Inexperience is the chief strike against this one, having made just three starts and only once around two turns.

6. Mystik Dan 

Owner/Trainer: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Valley View Farm/Kenny McPeek

Goldencents  —Ma'am  by Colonel John  

Breeder: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III (KY)

With 46 qualifying points, the Arkansas Derby (G1) show finisher currently has just enough points to gain entry into the May 4 Run for the Roses, though he could be passed by horses competing in the April 13 Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Even if that occurs, history suggests he will gain a starting spot. There are usually at least several defections in the lead-up to the race. Trainer Kenny McPeek, a Preakness Stakes (G1)- and Belmont Stakes (G1)-winning trainer who is 0-1-0 with nine starters in the Derby, has more than a fighting chance with this nimble colt, who flashed his off-track ability in romping in the Southwest Stakes (G3) this year.

7. Honor Marie   

Owner/Trainer: Ribble Farms, Michael Eiserman, Earl Silver, Kenneth Fishbein, Dave Fishbein/Whit Beckman

Honor Code —Dame Marie , by Smart Strike 

Breeder: Royce Pulliam (KY)

The Louisiana Derby runner-up, not known as a particularly flashy work horse, outfinished his company, stablemate and Turfway Park maiden winner Anthem King , with an encouraging half-mile breeze in :47 4/5 at Churchill Downs April 7. He ran well in two starts at Fair Grounds, running fifth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) before the Louisiana Derby, but it would seem that this late runner has an affinity for the Churchill Downs track. He has two wins from three starts locally, including a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last fall. 

8. Dornoch  

Owner/Trainer: West Paces Racing, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables/Danny Gargan

Good Magic  —Puca , by Big Brown   

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

He was a nose superior to Sierra Leone  in the Dec. 2 Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack, but in the five months since, Sierra Leone has moved forward while Dornoch has not. Dornoch was hard-ridden to defeat a scratch-reduced field in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) to kick off his season and was an even fourth in the Blue Grass. Perhaps an inside trip until the stretch compromised him a bit, but once angled out, would have liked to have seen him pass 51-1 longshot Epic Ride  to show. So this full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage   descends into the bottom half of the 'Dozen rankings. Connections are hopeful he can secure a path clear of dirt coming back in his face in the Derby, and with a middle to outside post, he might be able to carve out such a trip with his positional speed. 

9. Just Steel   

Owner/Trainer: BC Stables/D. Wayne Lukas

Justify  —Irish Lights , by Fastnet Rock  

Breeder: Summerhill Farm (KY)

Horses are running far less often than in the past, making Just Steel  a bit of a throwback. He has raced 11 times for Hall of Famer trainer  D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner, including four times in preps this year. He has not won any of the four but he was second three times this year, including most recently in the Arkansas Derby. He was just two lengths behind Muth , who, if he were eligible for the Derby, would likely be among the top four favorites. According to Lukas, this is a solidly built colt who benefits from training and racing. Just Steel won the Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill Downs last year. 

10. Resilience 

Owner/Trainer: Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman/Bill Mott

Into Mischief  —Meadowsweet , by Smart Strike

Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod (KY)

Following an encouraging fourth in a productive Risen Star Stakes, he added blinkers and convincingly won this past weekend's Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, though over questionable competition. The two favorites in the Wood, Deterministic  and Tuscan Sky , never fired and were unplaced, and Resilience rolled over horses finishing in the 2-3-4 positions that were respectively odds of 106-1, 38-1, and 80-1. The Risen Star result suggests Resilience is legitimate. He finished 3 1/2 lengths behind victorious Sierra Leone  and 1 3/4 lengths behind third-place Catching Freedom .

11. Stronghold 

Owner/Trainer: Eric and Sharon Waller/Phil D'Amato

Ghostzapper  —Spectator , by Jimmy Creed  

Breeder: Eric and Sharon Waller (KY)

Often, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner is a top-five Derby prospect. Not this year. Though Stronghold was game in outrunning Imagination  in the 1 1/8-mile race this past Saturday, it was not a vintage renewal of the Santa Anita Derby. Maymun , who likely would have been the public choice, was notably absent from the entries, and finishing third was E J Won the Cup , a horse not nominated to the Triple Crown who has won a maiden race and the Turf Paradise Derby. Stronghold is an honest competitor who won the Sunland Park Derby (G3) this winter, but others seem faster and classier. This colt has a win at Churchill Downs, having begun his career in Kentucky before heading to the West Coast.

12. Domestic Product

Owner/Trainer: Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown

Practical Joke  —Goods and Services , by Paynter 

Breeder: Klaravich Stables (KY)

Sierra Leone  is undoubtedly Brown's best hope for winning his first Derby, but this colt has quality, too. He accelerated to rally to victory in a slow-paced Tampa Bay Derby (G3) that unfolded like a grass race: slow early and fast late. He should benefit from the distance of the Derby and from a faster pace. Less enthusiastically, the Tampa Bay Derby has produced only two Derby winners, the last of which was Super Saver in 2010. (He had been third in the Tampa Bay Derby). Since then, only one participant from the race, victorious Tacitus  , has finished in the Derby superfecta. Tacitus was third in the 2019 Derby. This year's Tampa Bay Derby also appeared lighter in quality relative to other Derby preps.

* Note: With Churchill Downs Inc.'s continued ban of trainer Bob Baffert from racing at its tracks and of his horses from earning Kentucky Derby qualifying points, none of his top 3-year-olds, including Muth, are in the Derby Dozen. Barring a successful legal challenge by Zedan Racing Stables that would allow that colt and perhaps other Baffert runners to compete, look for Baffert in the Triple Crown starting with the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course.