Fierceness, Sierra Leone Showdown in Kentucky Derby 150

Two years ago at The Saratoga Sale at Fasig-Tipton in upstate New York, a flashy dark bay or brown Gun Runner   colt who would eventually be named Sierra Leone  was, on those sales grounds, the best horse that money could buy—a $2.3 million yearling purchase.

Flash forward to the fall of 2023, and Fierceness , a homebred bay City of Light   colt owned by Mike Repole, was the best dirt 2-year-old—period—winning the Nov. 3 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) by 6 1/4 lengths and, a little over two months later, earning a championship at the Eclipse Awards.

Yet to meet, the duo—now both multiple graded stakes winners—will finally do so May 4 when they battle 18 other 3-year-olds before an expected crowd of more than 150,000 fans in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs. At stake beyond the prestige is a $5 million purse, the richest in the history of the Derby, the first leg of the Triple Crown.

The May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course and the June 8 Belmont Stakes (G1), to be run this year at Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park, complete the Triple Crown, a series last swept by Justify   in 2018.

Repole Stable's Fierceness, trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher and ridden by three-time Derby winner John Velazquez, is the expected Derby favorite. Morning-line oddsmaker Mike Battaglia pegged him at 5-2 odds after a last-out, record-setting 13 1/2-length victory in the March 30 Florida Derby (G1), a race that has produced 25 Derby winners, most of any prep through Derby history. 

Brilliant at his best, Fierceness is viewed by some pundits as a Derby standout. But inconsistency and a history of alternating top efforts with lackluster performances, resulting in three wins and two losses, have some detractors predicting regression. Never has Fierceness put two consecutive victories together.

"Sixty percent of the time, he wins every time," quipped Pletcher April 23 at Churchill Downs, mirroring a humorous movie line from the 2004 comedy "Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy."

Jokes aside, Pletcher—a Hall of Famer, like Velazquez—believes his colt's losses can be attributed to poor starts and circumstances. In the Oct. 7 Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct Racetrack—which followed an 11 1/4-length maiden win and preceded his Breeders' Cup Juvenile romp—he was bumped at the start and finished seventh, beaten 20 1/4 lengths, in the mud. Then Feb. 3 in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park, he was again bumped at the break when kicking off his year following a three-month post-Breeders' Cup break. After being rushed up following the tardy beginning to take the lead, he weakened to third, beaten 3 1/2 lengths.

In each of those races, he was the favorite, leaving bettors tearing up their tickets.

Repole, chasing his first Derby victory after going 0-for-7 with horses he has owned solely or in partnership, plus having experienced pre-race scratches from Uncle Mo   in 2011 and Forte   in 2023, will hope to put those disappointments behind him.

Fierceness, like the Chad Brown-trained Sierra Leone, who delayed the start of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) last month before rallying to victory, has schooled in the Churchill Downs starting gate in preparation for an important Derby start. Quick-breaking horses typically are able to secure the best racing positions, while those away awkwardly find themselves shuffled back and playing catch-up in a unique race with the largest field in North America.

The Chad Brown-trained Sierra Leone seems less dependent on the start. He is a deep closer who will likely have to pass most of his rivals regardless of where he begins to swoop to victory. Still, how he acts as he approaches the gate will be closely watched after he delayed the start of the April 6 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland before rallying to a 1 1/2-length victory over Just a Touch .

Rare for a late-running horse, he has not proven pace-dependent, winning from behind both fast and slow fractions. He accomplished the latter in capturing the Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. He has three wins and a close second in four races and is 2-for-2 this year since adding blinkers and teaming with jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

"He's a very rare horse," Brown said. "If he could just get over there and in the starting gate the right way, and get a good trip, he's going to be tough to beat."

His value as an eventual sire would soar with a Derby win. He races for the partnership of Peter Brant, Brook Smith, and the Coolmore-affiliated Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, and Westerberg. 

Both Gaffalione and Brown are seeking their first Derby victories, though the trainer has come close with seven previous starters, running second with Good Magic   in 2018 and third with Zandon   in 2022. Gaffalione's best finish was a troubled seventh from War of Will   in 2019. That Mark Casse-trained colt would later win the Preakness Stakes (G1) under the young rider.

Brown, a dual Preakness Stakes (G1) winner and four-time Eclipse Award winner, will have a second crack at the Derby this year with Klaravich Stables' Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Domestic Product , a 30-1 outsider under Irad Ortiz Jr. Sierra Leone is the projected second wagering choice at 3-1.

Should both of the favorites falter, payoffs could blow up for bettors.

Albaugh Family Stables' Catching Freedom , winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2), is third choice at 8-1 odds. Battaglia projects double-digit odds on every other entrant, including the 5-for-5 unbeaten Japanese horse Forever Young , who traveled to the Middle East to win the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2) after three initial wins in Japan.

He is joined in the Derby starting gate by fellow Japanese runner and stakes winner T O Password , who qualified for the Derby via a series in Japan.

Japanese horses are 0-for-6 in the Kentucky Derby, with their top finishes twice being sixths, first by Master Fencer  in 2019 and then by Derma Sotogake  in 2023. But Japanese horses have excelled internationally, including in 2021 when Marche Lorraine  and Loves Only You  won Breeders' Cup races at Del Mar.

Forever Young's trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, also ran those horses, his only two starters to date in the United States.

T O Password is trained by Daisuke Takayanagi, whose first U.S. runner will be longshot T O Saint Denis  in the May 3 Alysheba Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs.

In addition to Catching Freedom, other leading domestic hopes include Dornoch , Mystik Dan , Just Steel , Honor Marie , Just a Touch, Stronghold , and Resilience .

Dual graded stakes winner Dornoch, whose full brother Mage   won the Derby last year, is expected to be one of those near the early lead. He is drawn in post 1, a position from which no horse has won since Ferdinand in 1986.

A continuous 20-horse starting gate first used by Churchill Downs in 2020 has created 12 additional feet of space for inside-drawn runners.

Others participating in Saturday's Derby, such as Catalytic , West Saratoga , Society Man , and Grand Mo the First , are trying to spring an upset.

Yet another, Epic Ride , is hoping to pull off a Rich Strike -like shock by drawing into the race from the also-eligible list and attempting to win the Derby at 80-1 as Rich Strike did in 2022. He gained entry to the race when Lexington Stakes (G3) winner Encino  was scratched due to a physical setback April 30.

The Derby has one more also eligible, Mugatu , who could gain entry if another scratch occurs before the designated early scratch time of 9 a.m. ET Friday, Kentucky Oaks (G1) day. Rain is expected Friday.

As of the morning of May 1, partly sunny skies with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high of 80 degrees are forecast by the National Weather Service.

Should a wet track develop, that could benefit a horse such as Mystik Dan, who skipped to a rail-skimming eight-length victory in the muddy Southwest Stakes (G3) this year at Oaklawn Park.

Post time for the Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET. NBC will televise the race and the lead-up to it Saturday afternoon and evening. Last year on NBC, more than 16 million viewers watched the coverage during the time of the race.

Entries: Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1)

Churchill Downs, Saturday, May 04, 2024, Race 12

• Grade I
• 1 1/4m
• Dirt
• $5,000,000
• 3 yo
• 6:57 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Dornoch (KY)	Luis Saez	126	Danny Gargan	20/1
2	2Sierra Leone (KY)	Tyler Gaffalione	126	Chad C. Brown	3/1
3	3Mystik Dan (KY)	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.	126	Kenneth G. McPeek	20/1
4	4Catching Freedom (KY)	Flavien Prat	126	Brad H. Cox	8/1
5	5Catalytic (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	126	Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.	30/1
6	6Just Steel (KY)	Keith J. Asmussen	126	D. Wayne Lukas	20/1
7	7Honor Marie (KY)	Ben Curtis	126	D. Whitworth Beckman	20/1
8	8Just a Touch (KY)	Florent Geroux	126	Brad H. Cox	10/1
9	9Encino (KY)	Axel Concepcion	126	Brad H. Cox	20/1
10	10T O Password (JPN)	Kazushi Kimura	126	Daisuke Takayanagi	30/1
11	11Forever Young (JPN)	Ryusei Sakai	126	Yoshito Yahagi	10/1
12	12Track Phantom (KY)	Joel Rosario	126	Steven M. Asmussen	20/1
13	13West Saratoga (KY)	Jesus Lopez Castanon	126	Larry W. Demeritte	50/1
14	14Endlessly (KY)	Umberto Rispoli	126	Michael W. McCarthy	30/1
15	15Domestic Product (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	126	Chad C. Brown	30/1
16	16Grand Mo the First (KY)	Emisael Jaramillo	126	Victor Barboza, Jr.	50/1
17	17Fierceness (KY)	John R. Velazquez	126	Todd A. Pletcher	5/2
18	18Stronghold (KY)	Antonio Fresu	126	Philip D'Amato	20/1
19	19Resilience (KY)	Junior Alvarado	126	William I. Mott	20/1
20	20Society Man (KY)	Lanfranco Dettori	126	Danny Gargan	50/1
21	21Epic Ride (KY)	Adam Beschizza	126	John Ennis	30/1
22	22Mugatu (KY)	Joseph Talamo	126	Jeff Engler	30/1