Hot List Graded Stakes Review: Donn Handicap
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Lea held off champion Will Take Charge, left, in the Donn Handicap on Feb. 9 but it is the runner-up who rates as the better bet for his next race. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The $500,000 Grade 1 Donn Handicap, Feb. 9, Gulfstream Park
Lea was unquestionably a highly impressive winner of the Donn Handicap, taking the Grade 1 stakes in the track-record time of 1:46.86 for 1 1/8 miles. Yet in terms of their next start, the horse who figures to benefit most from the race is the runner-up, Will Take Charge.
Lea had a perfect set-up, chasing a 27-to-1 longshot on the front end, and he mostly likely will be unable to duplicate such a superb, but taxing, career-best effort.
Will Take Charge, meanwhile, had not raced in more than two months and fears of rust and his late kick working against him at Gulfstream were reflected in his odds rising from 6-to-5 to 3-to-2 in the final three minutes.
Though still the post-time favorite, he seemed to have little chance of catching Lea at the top of the stretch. Yet the determination he showed in closing for second, cutting the margin to 1 ½ lengths at the finish line, bodes well for his chances of being sharper and even more competitive in his next start and earned him a spot on the A List.
The Hot List, founded by turf writer/handicapper Bob Ehalt in 2011, blends a detailed analysis of a race with late wagering trends to pick out the horses with the best chance of running a winning race in their next start. Hot List horses are rated in four lettered categories:
A : A preferred horse to watch off his effort in the race B : A secondary horse to watch off his effort in the race *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 1st through 3rd *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final minutes of wagering and finished 4th or worse * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
For questions on the Hot List, email: nyhotlist@gmail.com
The only other starter placed on the Hot List was third-place finisher Viramundo. He was 50-to-1 with three minutes left and went off at 44-to-1, meeting the Hot List criteria of a horse at his odds dropping four points or more in the final minutes.
It was highly unusual to see a 50-to-1 shot drop in the late wagering, and in Viramundo’s case that confidence was merited as he finished a respectable third. While he was no threat to the winner, finishing 10 ¾ lengths behind Lea, his effort was noteworthy considering it was his first try in a U.S. graded stakes. With a more realistic placement, such as a Grade 3 stakes, Viramundo should be a top contender in his next start.
No one else showed much. Foremost among the also-rans was 7-to-2 second choice and seventh-place finisher Revolutionary, who took a backward step after a promising return from a seven-month layoff in which he beat Falling Sky (who came back to win a Grade 3 stakes the day before the Donn) and Viramundo.
Hot List horses: Will Take Charge (A), Viramundo (C)
Donn Handicapping Late Wagering Report
No.
Horse
Odds 3 Minutes to Post
Final Odds
1.
Uncaptured
30
27
2.
Will Take Charge
6/5
3/2
3.
Revolutionary
3
7/2
4.
Neck ‘n Neck
30
34
5.
River Seven
6
5
6.
Romansh
7
7
7.
Viramundo
50
44
8.
Lea
6
5
9.
Bourbon Courage
15
13
10.
Macho Bull
99
180
11.
Joshua’s Comprise
99
199